Mark Lawrenson Soccer analyst: Another crucial spell in this qualifying group, two games in five days - and nothing less than six points is required.

Just look at the current standings and you know that's what we have to get. But these end-of-season games can sometimes cause problems. Quite a few of the players haven't played for a while; their legs are fine, but they might just lack the touch, have a little ring-rustiness.

I think Brian Kerr might be concerned about that, about the start we have tonight. When you start slowly it's very hard to pick it up, so it's imperative we set a good tempo and keep it going.

The suspensions of Stephen Carr and Roy Keane have given Kerr two decisions to make, but I think the rest of the team more or less picks itself.

In terms of replacing Carr, I would just go for the more obvious option, which is to play two natural full backs: John O'Shea at right back and Ian Harte on the left.

The talk, though, has been of Stephen Reid being picked at right back, with O'Shea on the left, but I just don't think it's worth risking: Reid is not a natural full back. Yes, he's played there before, but he's a midfielder. There is always the danger he will keep getting caught out of position, when the position just isn't natural to him.

You can always chuck him in later on, as an attacking right back, if needs be, but you start with the natural options; you don't want to encourage Israel at all.

Harte has been playing in La Liga this season and we know the standard there - it's as good as it gets - so you have to respect that. He has never had a turn of pace, but even in Tel Aviv I can't remember Israel bombing down our right-hand side; they played so narrow. I don't really expect us to be having to defend that much, so I don't think whatever Harte lacks in that department will be a problem. And, of course, with him you get his ability at set pieces, which has always been his strong point.

With Andy Reid on the right - as I hope he will be - I'm not sure there's any great need for Stephen Reid behind him. All you want are two full backs who will do their jobs and get on with supplying those in front of them. Harte and O'Shea can do that for Damien Duff and Andy Reid. With two proper full backs, the wide midfield players have a licence to get on and do the damage.

And who should replace Roy Keane? Well, I would opt for Matt Holland over Graham Kavanagh, but it's probably a hair's breadth between them. Holland has just never let us down and I don't think Kavanagh gives you anything more, even if he has done quite well. But it's much of a muchness.

Israel are quite a physical team - big, strong, three centre backs and all that entails - which is even more reason to try to turn them around. That's why you want your wide midfield players to get at them as much as possible. If they do I think we'll cause Israel all sorts of problems. Keep our wide players very, very wide. Stretch them at every opportunity, which is what we didn't do enough once we went one-nil up in Israel.

Their goalkeeper, too, will struggle with quality crosses - that's crosses from 18 yards or so. It's no good pumping them in from 30, 40 yards; if you do, their centre halves will cope easily enough with Robbie Keane and Clinton Morrison. That's their one strength: they're 6ft 2in-plus, these boys. An aerial bombardment won't be good enough.

But we should do it. We might win ugly. I think it might well be that way, but you'd take one-nil. In fact I'd take two one-nils now, the second against the Faroe Islands next week.

You have just got to get through these games, take the six points and then have another look at the table. At that point, no matter how ugly the one-nils might have been, the table will make more - much, much more - encouraging reading.