Lions Tour, first Test: Warren Gatland, who will be writing exclusively for The Irish Times throughout the Test series, weighs up tomorrow's contestants.
As a patriotic Kiwi I want the All Blacks to beat the Lions, but there's a part of me that actually wants the Lions to do well, even to the point of winning, if only to shut the ill-informed New Zealand public and media up.
Since I've been back it's been frustrating listening to the comments from journalists, pundits and the public, in newspapers, radio and television, spouting on about how the English and Lions players are useless and over the top. It's just ill-informed.
An example was toward the end of the Southland game when listening to one of the commentaries as Gordon D'Arcy came on at fullback.
"He's not a fullback, he's a midfielder. They should start putting up-and-unders on him because he's no experience of playing there."
That's the sort of comment that shows just how ill-informed they are.
Even some of the New Zealand provincial players the Lions have faced have been coming out and saying the All Blacks should win by 20 points or more. If I were in the Lions camp I would actually be quietly delighted with the way they have been dismissed. In that environment, you can develop a siege mentality whereby no-one expects you to win or even to perform.
All of this puts a lot of pressure on the All Blacks to go out and win.
It's a nice position for the Lions to be in really, and I think the Lions haven't shown their true hand by the way they've changed gameplans from game to game.
In fact both teams are going into this first Test relatively cold. There hasn't been continuity of selection with the Lions in terms of combinations, and when I spoke to Ian McGeechan before the Lions left he was surprised the All Blacks players, apart from the Maori game, weren't going to be playing in any of the non-Test tour matches.
He mentioned that South Africa did the same in 1997 and he thinks they made a big mistake. Apart from three or four who have played for the Maori against the Lions, the All Blacks have missed chances to gain experience of playing against the Lions, of finding out what they're like physically up front and giving back a bit of knowledge to their teammates. And from the All Blacks' perspective, the Fijian game was a fairly pointless warm-up.
I think there is a lot of improvement left in this Lions team. Mentally, as well, they're going to be really up for this game in a way we haven't remotely seen yet. We've seen hints of this in the second halves of some games when it's been really put up to them.
Many of the Lions players had never had the experience of playing in New Zealand, of playing provinces who were really up for it, at night and under lights. But the Lions have been physically too strong for their opponents in the second half of games.
It looks to me as if a big proportion of the Lions players had their names cemented into this Test side before the tour even started. There haven't been many opportunities for players to force their way into the team apart from hooker, Paul O'Connell's partner in the secondrow, and maybe prop or one or two others.
I don't think Jonny Wilkinson at inside centre was a done deal but Gavin Henson was a little bit unlucky. He was the form player in the Six Nations in that position but had to fight for his place.
About two-thirds of this team were picked on past achievement and being part of the World Cup-winning side that also beat the All Blacks in New Zealand - Jason Robinson at fullback, Richard Hill, Neil Back, Wilkinson, Graham Rowntree and Will Greenwood in the replacements.
You say to yourself that Wilkinson has been one of the best outhalves in the world, but he hasn't played international rugby for more than 18 months and hasn't even been playing inside centre for Newcastle.
It's a bit of a slight on the other midfielders but D'Arcy hasn't put his hands up; he hasn't really played well since the Argentinian game.
The Stephen Jones-Wilkinson combination does give the Lions that right foot-left-foot combination but then playing Henson would have as well. Why hasn't Woodward gone down that route, or at least had Henson on the bench? To be honest, I'm not sure.
But I think the Lions are going to play territory, with O'Connell and Ben Kay really putting the All Blacks' lineout under pressure. I think they'll take the All Blacks on up front, and that Jones-Wilkinson combination will play a big part. It will give them those "wiper kicks" - crossfield kicks in behind the openside winger - making Doug Howlett or Sitiveni Sivivatu turn.
The wingers, Josh Lewsey and Gareth Thomas, are "physical" players, which suggests to me they'll be used quite a bit close in off short passes.
If I were playing against the All Blacks I'd put Richie McCaw on the ground early. He's so dangerous when he gets into that 13 channel defensively; that's where he gets his hands on the ball and causes turnovers.
I'd get him on the ground early by using Martin Corry off the tail, or using Thomas or Lewsey, making McCaw make that close-in tackle, and then use Brian O'Driscoll off the next phase. Then you don't have that threat off second or third phase and you can begin to frustrate McCaw.
This is a little bit like we played Neil Back and Leicester in the (English Premiership) final, getting him on the ground early. We took him out of the phase play by getting him on the ground early.
The All Blacks are under a lot of pressure. There's a massive amount of expectation on them to get a result, and probably quite a good result as well, and I'm not sure they know an awful lot about these players individually.
Some of the players who performed quite well last year aren't in the team, like Mils Muliaina, Joe Rokocoko and Byron Kelleher, who was fantastic in that 45-6 win over France.
I don't think Graham Henry was under pressure to pick six Canterbury players, but he would have been mindful of the support from the local public and the local crowd, as well as these players' knowledge of playing at home.
The All Blacks have choked a bit under pressure on the big occasions over the last few years, and to me that's a symptom of Super 12 rugby. That free-flowing game doesn't really prepare them for holding out under pressure and the kind of tight games you get in Test rugby.
And I think this is going to be really close as well, but home-town advantage may just sway it their way. The All Blacks are perhaps better used to playing at night, because all the Super 12 games are now played at night as well.
But nothing would surprise me, and a Lions win wouldn't surprise me. Their set-pieces have been good, defensively they have been strong, and they could strangle the All Blacks.
One thing they did in the Otago game, and not many people picked this up, was that they blitzed a bit. The Australians did that really effectively against the All Blacks in the World Cup semi-final and the Springboks did as well when nearly beating the All Blacks here and then beating them at home in the Tri-Nations with very little ball.
But the All Blacks might just have a little bit more individual brilliance - players like Daniel Carter, Aaron Mauger and Tana Umaga who can make line breaks.
I can't see Jones and Wilkinson making lots of breaks. I can see a number of these All Blacks making something out of nothing, making the break and the offload. That could possibly be the difference.
(In an interview with Gerry Thornley)
