The qualifier concept in this year's Bank of Ireland football championship was always going to benefit two categories of team: the experienced, settled combination that slipped up along the way and the emerging side in need of experience. No prizes for guessing what category Galway fall into but Derry are a bit of a mixture. Roughly half the Ulster side have yet to experience a big match at Croke Park but the other half are well practised.
This afternoon the teams come within 70 minutes of reaching the final with their strengths and weaknesses common knowledge by this stage. Galway have exploited their at times sparkling attack to build big leads but have then mysteriously checked out and allowed opponents back into contention. Derry have tightened up at the back and managed to restrict their opponents to surpassable totals.
Which of these stereotypes will prove more accurate? There are two interpretations. One is that Galway will score more than Derry are likely to and the other is that Derry will punish Galway's inability to play for 70 minutes.
When the counties met three years ago, Galway were comfortable winners but the cast has changed a fair bit since then. Most importantly Jarlath Fallon, who faces a fitness test tomorrow morning, will probably not be in the shape he was in 1998. His four points from play that day were an illustration of the gulf between the team's attacking capacities.
It looks less than likely that Fallon will be 100 per cent tomorrow and John O'Mahony will hardly be tempted to take a chance with that even though the inkling he will need all guns on deck is strong.
Paul Clancy's prospects are said to be even worse with the lingering effects of his ankle injury causing him considerable pain after activity. If Galway have to rummage in the bag, 19-year-old Matthew Clancy (no relation) is the likely starter.
Derry also have a teenager in a key role. Fergal Doherty is another 19-year-old and his development as Anthony Tohill's partner at centrefield has been impressive. Man of the match in the quarter-final against Tyrone in which centrefield was one of the main factors in Derry's improvement since losing the Ulster semi-final to the same opposition. The other was defence. With Seβn Lockhart and Gary Coleman locking the central defence, there was never much question of Tyrone pulling off the three goals that had been the foundation of their win in June.
With such a solid base, it's no wonder there is quiet confidence in Derry about the outcome but it rests on certain expectations of the attack. The full-forward line, however, lacks consistency. Enda Muldoon for all his talents can only do maximum damage if he gets the right supply in front of goal. Derry may fancy him in a one-on-one with Gary Fahey but the Galway full back doesn't roll over that easily. and wasn't overwhelmed by Maurice Fitzgerald in last year's All-Ireland final.
On either side of Muldoon, Gavin Diamond is a good marksman but doesn't get on the end of that many chances whereas Paddy Bradley oscillates between inspiring admiration and frustration in roughly equal measure. Derry need more from the half forwards, two of whom, Johnny McBride and Paul McFlynn, are converts and the other, Dermot Dougan, who has yet to find his best form.
Galway's defence has also improved this year. Kieran Fitzgerald and Richie Fahey have worked well together in the corners and Tomas Mannion has provided a hard focus at the centre of the backs that has helped balance Declan Meehan's and Sean de Paor's flights of attacking fancy on the wings.
Centrefield may be more of a problem for Galway. Kevin Walsh has brought composure and presence to the area but against such a combination of strength and mobility as Tohill and Doherty, Walsh is a bit static and Michael Donnellan lacks the physical clout. If Walsh and maybe Joe Bergin could break a bit of ball, Donnellan comes into his own but in a more conventional confrontation, he will end up short of possession.
This is a most nerve-wracking prospect for John O'Mahony and his team. Derry, particularly if they score a goal, will be extremely hard to beat and if Galway lose the initiative they will struggle to get it back. The public climate that presumes a win carries its own dangers as the county's hurlers proved to Kilkenny a week ago.
But Galway have been through this before. Tomorrow is their fourth trip to Croke Park this year. When they lost control of the matches against Armagh and Cork, they retrieved the situation and comfortably against the latter. Their attacking play is built on clever, pacy interchange to open up space and the accuracy of players - most notably Padraig Joyce - in kicking points. Should they lose Fallon and Paul Clancy the odds on Galway drift a bit but not sufficiently to stop Joyce, Derek Savage, Donnellan et al from building the foundations of a winning total.
