French defeat brings seeding slide

Soccer In addition to having seriously dented Irish hopes of qualifying for next summer's World Cup finals, Wednesday's defeat…

SoccerIn addition to having seriously dented Irish hopes of qualifying for next summer's World Cup finals, Wednesday's defeat by France at Lansdowne Road means the Republic are virtually certain to drop from second to fourth seeds when the draw is made for the qualifying stages of the next European Championships.

The 50 nations due to compete in the competition will be seeded on the basis of their performances in the group stages of this World Cup campaign and the last European Championships. This is in line with the procedure used in recent championships and the system meant the Irish were amongst the top seeds in the draw for Euro 2004 and the second group of countries for the current campaign with rankings of sixth and 15th respectively.

After finishing third to Switzerland and Russia with 11 points from eight games last time around and amassing 13 to date from a similar number of matches in this group competition, the Irish have slumped to joint 26th alongside Scotland and Hungary in the current seedings list.

With only seven rather than eight groups to be drawn next time around that leaves the Republic facing the prospect of being the fourth-ranked team in the group and an uphill task to take one of the two automatic qualifying places (there will be no play-offs) on offer for the Euro 2008 tournament finals.

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Under the system used the number of points gained by each country in the previous two campaigns is divided by the number of games played to provide a score.

Brian Kerr's side have 24 points from 16 games so far but could improve their score from the present 1.5 to 1.66 if they can beat both Cyprus and Switzerland in their remaining two games. If the scores of other nations remained unchanged that would just be enough to steal into 21st place and a third seeding.

Similarly, however, they could yet slip back to 29th position in the rankings if Finland were to win their last two games (they have to play Romania and the Czech Republic) or Israel beat the Faroe Islands and Brian Kerr's side performed poorly in their remaining matches.

The reality, however, is that having slipped behind the likes of Latvia, Bosnia Herzegovina and Slovakia on a ladder that is of considerably more material significance than Fifa's world ranking list, they currently look virtually certain to be fourth seeds.

The draw for the next European Championships will be made on January 27th in Montreux.

There will be one group of eight teams and six groups of seven with the Swiss and Austrians qualifying automatically and the Greeks guaranteed a top seeding by virtue of their status as defending champions.

On the basis of their current positioning, Ireland could end up in a group that included the likes of the Netherlands (currently top of the list), Spain and the Ukraine, who have already qualified for next summer's finals by finishing ahead of Turkey, Greece and Denmark in Group Two.

Before then, of course, the Irish must pick themselves up in the wake of Wednesday's defeat and aim to win their last two games which could, depending on other results, still be enough to yield top spot and a place in Germany next summer.

More likely it would mean second place which brings with it a play-off spot and so Kerr is likely to start having potential opponents watched in next month's final two rounds of group games across Europe.

At present groups one, six and eight, where the Czech Republic, England and Croatia occupy the respective second places, are the most likely to produce the two best runners-up. In all of the other groups the race for a play-off spot remains too tight to call but Spain, Norway, Turkey and Greece are amongst the potential opponents if the Irish can secure second spot.

To get there they will have to win in Cyprus without Roy Keane, Clinton Morrison or Andy Reid, all of whom are suspended, and then beat the Swiss at Lansdowne Road.

The Cypriots have had a disappointing campaign and it is hard to see them upsetting Kerr's side. In the Euro 2004 qualifiers they secured eight points and managed draws at home to Israel and Slovenia but this time around their four points have come from their two encounters with the Faroe Islands.

When Ireland last played on the island, also in a World Cup qualifier back in March 2001, Roy Keane was the central figure in a 4-0 victory with the Manchester United midfielder scoring two of the goals and producing a hugely impressive all-round display. Last year, however, the Corkman was also missing as Kerr's side rather easily beat them 3-0 at Lansdowne Road.

The Swiss, however, will present a far more severe challenge. On a number of occasions, most notably against the Israelis, they have looked a distinctly ordinary side over the past year but then precisely the same could be said of the Irish.

With two wins and one draw to show for their recent meetings with the Republic, however, they will travel to Dublin with a good deal of confidence, particularly if they have just beaten the French in Berne in which case a draw would be enough to send them to Germany as group winners and leave the Irish licking their wounds after what would almost certainly be a fourth-place finish.