French hopes hinge on territorial battle

New Zealand against France makes for a classic quarter-final but it also means the tournament will suffer

New Zealand against France makes for a classic quarter-final but it also means the tournament will suffer. A gloss is taken off the World Cup whether it's the host nation or favourites who are knocked out. I suppose Argentina are again to blame.

I don't think the French will play much rugby. Damien Traille and Lionel Beauxis are selected to win the territorial battle and if France match the All Blacks up front they are in with a chance of winning.

New Zealand will respond in kind. Say what you like about New Zealand's running style but they don't mess about in their own 22. Dan Carter will kick a lot.

Graham Henry's team selection was fairly predictable with a few people shocked by the injury-prone Keith Robinson being selected ahead of Chris Jack.

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This was not a form selection but the lineout has occasionally struggled this year. Robinson is known as a tactically astute lineout caller under pressure, in contrast to Ali Williams and Jack.

Concerns still exist over Anton Oliver's throwing but he is there ahead of Keven Mealamu for his superior scrummaging. They will try to erode French confidence in the scrum. However, even in defeat to Argentina, the French set-piece play has been solid.

There are other debates about Doug Howlett being left out and Mils Muliaina going to centre but there is an alternative for every position. I was surprised to see Aaron Mauger miss the bench, especially considering his relationship with Wayne Smith.

The centre slot remains a concern but Muliaina is considered the best 13 and 15 in the country so they won't lose anything with him there.

Both teams will use their bench in a similar manner, with several players coming into the fray late on.

Down home there has been plenty of talk about the jersey problem and lack of a Southern Hemisphere referee in the quarter-finals.

France won the toss so they have a right to play in blue but from a television perspective, New Zealand's grey/silver kit made it difficult to distinguish between the teams against Scotland. I don't know what the IRB are going to decide but surely they have learned from the game in Murrayfield. New Zealand should just wear Black.

I remember English referee Wayne Barnes when he first came on to the scene a few years back. He looked like a puppy-faced boy up against men. He has since matured but this afternoon presents a huge test. The French have a slight advantage in terms of rule interpretation, having experienced his style before in the Premiership (especially captain Raphaël Ibañez) and the European Cup.

I expect the All Blacks to win but I think France will beat the 14-point handicap. In fact, all four points spread actually seem to benefit the underdog: England (13), Scotland (13) and Fiji (36).

The people of New Zealand are expecting a comfortable victory (always a concern) on the premise the match takes place in Cardiff where the French support will be considerably outnumbered.

Our economy could be in for another one of those post-World Cup depressions.

I can see a surprise in the other high profile quarter-final. The loss of Andy Farrell to another injury is actually beneficial to England. Mike Catt brings more to their game and while Farrell was a fantastic league player, he arrived in union too late. In contrast, Stephen Larkham's absence is a massive blow to Australia's World Cup aspirations.

England were woeful against the Springboks but they remarkably rediscovered their form against Samoa and particularly Tonga. The return of Jason Robinson is another huge confidence boost.

They will look to dominate the Wallabies up front, pressurise Berrick Barnes (Lewis Moody's primary function) and then let Jonny Wilkinson kick the goals. Tick those boxes and they can win.

South Africa should comfortably see off Fiji in one of those wacky high-scoring games. The Islanders will be under pressure in all set-piece areas but should do some damage once the game is beyond them and matters loosen up.

The progress of Fiji and Argentina has been great for the rugby.

Argentina should be too strong up front and defensively to be troubled by Scotland. They are the form side in the tournament but could still beat themselves if they start looking ahead to a semi-final with South Africa. There is a performance in Scotland but the Pumas must be buoyed by the clinical dissection of Ireland.

So, New Zealand, England, South Africa and Argentina to progress.

Postscript: I see my name associated with the Welsh job this week. It seems after every international post becomes vacant my name is associated with it. Not a bad thing, I suppose.