Six Nations/Italy v France: France, dark horses to retain the Six Nations title, checked into their hotel in central Rome yesterday doing a passable impression of a team convinced the race was already over.
While there was a feeling in the squad that Ireland would stop Wales from taking their first Grand Slam in 27 years, a French win over Italy by at least 41 points before a sell-out crowd at the Stadio Flaminio this afternoon was "not going to happen".
During the week the outhalf Yann Delaigue admitted: "I don't think we will beat Italy by a huge score." And Bernard Laporte cautioned France "mustn't dream too much of winning the championship".
Yesterday one of his coaching staff went further, suggesting the odds were stacked against them. "We're up first so we don't really have a target, which makes it worse. I think the best we can hope for is to win our last Six Nations match well, watch Wales on television and look forward to the future" - something France have been doing for most of the championship.
Many of Laporte's selections have seemed more concerned with building a squad for the 2007 World Cup than repeating last year's Grand Slam. At times it has got him into trouble with former coaches, players and fans and there were suggestions before last month's victory over England that if the power-brokers of the south decided to say in public what they were muttering in private, Laporte would be in deep trouble.
His side opened with a wonky, last-gasp win over Scotland at the Stade de France. The crowd, already angry at Laporte's decision to leave Frederic Michalak on the bench and last year's hero Jean-Baptiste Elissalde at home in Toulouse, whistled their displeasure all afternoon.
When France leaked two first-half tries at Twickenham, Laporte's situation appeared dire. But with England missing kicks and going on a binge of ill-discipline, Dimitri Yachvili, Elissalde's replacement at scrumhalf, returned the coach's favour and an 11-point deficit became a one-point victory. Laporte was safe.
Victory at Twickenham was enough. A second-half collapse to Wales went down badly, but some of Laporte's fiercest critics were beginning to understand his vision. Last weekend's victory in Dublin, and with it the emergence of Benoit Baby, was the icing on the cake.
Baby is not in Rome, having been banned for butting Brian O'Driscoll, but the announcement of his unexpected replacement David Marty, the uncapped Perpignan centre, and not Damien Traille, gave Laporte a chance to take a dig at his doubters. "It's interesting to test new players. We are rebuilding," he said before adding: "Our life is sparkling. It's a bit like a summer camp for kids but it's better than being surrounded with grim faces that make you cry."
The opposition coach, John Kirwan, is not so lucky and there are echoes of the criticism faced by his predecessor Brad Johnstone. The target of two wins set at the start of the championship has come home to haunt him as Italy head for a first wooden spoon since 2002.
His forwards can trouble any side, but once the ball leaves the hands of the scrumhalf and captain, Alessandro Troncon, anything can happen. Tackling has seemed a lost art and if France play as they did when they tore Wales apart for 40 minutes, they would quickly bring the title within reach.
After conceding six tries to England, Kirwan has made three changes, two of them to the backs. The most notable is the arrival of Simon Picone to partner Andrea Masi in the centre and make his first start for the Azzurri. Kaine Robertson takes the place of the porous winger Roberto Pedrazzi. Santiago Dellape returns to the second row.
Kirwan insists his team continues to improve. "We are in games, then we make mistakes at critical times. We should have beaten Ireland and we should have beaten Scotland. Sooner or later the team is going to turn the corner."
But probably not today.
Guardian Service
