EMMET MALONEon how a positive result today could prove to be the start of something big

GIVEN the Ireland team’s relative lack of success down the years there is not exactly a wealth of statistical data to back up the assertion that follows – but here goes anyway: Ireland’s start in each of the four qualification campaigns they actually made it through strongly suggest they need to get a result, and possibly a win, in Yerevan this evening if they are to progress to the country’s fifth major championship finals.

In each of the four, the Irish have come out of the blocks quite well: drawing in Belgium (’88), Northern Ireland (’90), beating Albania at home (’94) and, most impressively of all, picking up points in both Amsterdam and Lisbon (2002).

This time around, the games against the group’s middle to lower ranking sides could be decisive. Neither Macedonia nor Armenia tend to travel well and it is hard to image either will pick up points on the road in the likes of Dublin, Moscow or Bratislava.

Each, though, has the potential to cause upsets of some sort at home and Ireland’s ability to come through the first such test could well prove critical to the team’s chances of finishing top or at least securing a play-off place.

Their ability to do that is likely to come down to reproducing the sort of intensity achieved in Paris where Robbie Keane and co turned in their best display in years. On that occasion, they simply had to win and it showed in a performance brimming with energy and attacking enterprise.

Through the campaign that preceded those play-offs games against France they looked more than once like a side content not to lose and were fortunate in the end the Bulgarians were so poor.

Now, with essentially the same group of players, Giovanni Trapattoni needs to build on his success in making Ireland hard to beat. It was noticeable this week the veteran Italian seemed to abandon his usual caution and was talking up the prospects of an Irish victory this evening. Beside him, though, Keane was still emphasising, first and foremost, the need to avoid defeat.

The manager speaks almost endlessly about his players’ mentality and Keane’s yesterday was strikingly different from the one he displayed in advance of the trip to Paris in November.

There, the players showed that Trapattoni’s system, with its ostensibly cautious defensive shield in central midfield and emphasis on attacking down the flanks, could open up a decent defence without, as happened far too often under Steve Staunton, exposing the team to the threat of a counter-attack.

As the new campaign’s kick-off approaches, there is a sense the team’s fortunes may depend on the players’ willingness to back up their impressive talk of renewed determination and ambition with more focused performances, particularly in a match like tonight’s where the obvious motivational factor of rising to the big occasion is absent.

“We really want to do it now after coming so close to getting to the World Cup,” insists Richard Dunne. “I think getting so close has given us bit of hunger and the realisation we can do it.

“We played really well in France and were unlucky not to get through but the performance in that game is something we can look back on and take a lot of heart from.

“We played really well against a good French side. If we have that same belief in the Euros I think we’ll go really close to qualifying.”

A little luck may be needed along the way too. Key players like Dunne, Shay Given and John O’Shea were available for every game of the last campaign, while Keane and Kevin Doyle missed just one apiece. Trapattoni will be fortunate to have the backbone of his side consistently available to him over the next 13 months.

He must also hope a number of new stars deliver on their promise, so as to cover for older ones who can’t be depended upon in the way they once were. Aiden McGeady is a key case in point for, while the squad has a decent array of wide players, only the former Celtic winger shows the same potential to open up opposition defences, and provide an outlet of Ireland’s, as Damien Duff.

There is also the matter of Kevin Kilbane, who Trapattoni has acknowledged, needs to be replaced but who, it seems, will be asked to soldier on due to the lack of anyone with the desired credentials to displace him.

These two opening games should not prove too great a problem for the Hull City player but next month both Russia and Slovakia must be taken on and each possesses the sort of pace out on the wings that could cause Kilbane a great deal of discomfort.

It is, in other areas too, an Ireland team of fairly serious limitations and the fact the summer search for fresh talent has yielded little more than the promotion of a couple of youngsters the manager is desperately hoping will grow into the roles earmarked for them, and Paul Green – a 110 per-center from the Championship – is a pretty good indication of the depth of the pool from which Trapattoni is fishing just now.

That his behaviour effectively nudged Steven Reid into international retirement while sidelining Andy Reid and a couple of others who had contributed well enough under previous managers, is regrettable but irrelevant.

In any case, the surviving players swear by him, with Given this week describing him as “a winner” and insisting the team can succeed this time.

“We think we’re a good enough squad to get in this time around,” he says. “ We have experienced players and good young lads coming through as well. In the last couple of years we have gained lot of experience and hopefully that can stand us in good stead.”

Pool B fixtures

Today: Armenia v Rep of Ireland; Andorra v Russia; Slovakia v FYR Macedonia.

Sept 7th: Russia v Slovakia; FYR Macedonia v Armenia; Rep of Ireland v Andorra.

Oct 8th: Armenia v Slovakia; Andorra v FYR Macedonia; Rep of Ireland v Russia.

Oct 12th: Armenia v Andorra; Slovakia v Rep of Ireland; FYR Macedonia v Russia.

March 26th, 2011: Rep of Ireland v FYR Macedonia; Armenia v Russia; Andorra v Slovakia.

June 4th, 2011: B Russia v Armenia; Slovakia v Andorra; FYR Macedonia v Rep of Ireland.

Sept 2nd, 2011: Rep of Ireland vSlovakia; Russia v FYR Macedonia; Andorra v Armenia.

Sept 6th, 2011: Slovakia v Armenia; Russia v Rep of Ireland; FYR Macedonia v Andorra.

Oct 7th, 2011: Slovakia v Russia; Armenia v FYR Macedonia; Andorra v Rep of Ireland.

Oct 11th, 2011; Russia v Andorra; Rep of Ireland v Armenia; FYR Macedonia v Slovakia.