Racing Leopardstown Champion Hurdle:  Even a cursory look at the form for the AIG Champion Hurdle will take one back to Christmas and the victory of Golden Cross over tomorrow's course and distance.

There it is in black and white: Golden Cross a length and a half ahead of Spirit Leader with Flame Creek in third. It should be straightforward.

Logically it is the outstanding piece of form in the race. And yet can we believe it? "Why shouldn't you believe it?" is the very obvious reply from the man closest to Golden Cross.

The written word can be rubbish for tone sometimes. When Michael Halford says "why shouldn't . . .," it's not with the sort of "what are you looking at" belligerence one might assume. Halford doesn't do aggro' so much as slight bemusement. In this case the reason is all too obvious.

Golden Cross's form is there for everyone to see, but so is the SP he won at, 66 to 1.

If he'd been an ordinary 6 to 1 or even 10 to 1 winner, he would be enjoying much more prominence in this new betting market. As it is, everyone is too hung up on the price to really believe he can do it again.

Horses start at 66 to 1 for a reason after all: they're usually crap, right? And 66 to 1 shots don't win Grade One races. Never before in the entire history of the pattern had such a race fallen to one of those "rags" that John McCririck so casually dismisses. It must have a fluke, logic dictates, just one of those things. But what if it isn't?

The uncertainty comes from the fact Golden Cross probably isn't very much into betting himself. He was probably just feeling chipper on the day.

He might feel even more chipper tomorrow. And then what kind of mugs will we all look? Plus there's the Halford factor.

Halford does fluke the way Dwight Yorke does celibacy. To those who know about these things, the 40-year-old from the Curragh is on the verge of breaking into the real big time in the ultra-competitive flat game. The figures bear them out.

Slowly but surely, Halford has been climbing the trainer's table to lie sixth in 2003 with 29 winners. Only the world-recognised names of O'Brien, Oxx, Weld, etc, were ahead of him.

That was one place higher than 2002, two higher than 2001. All the time his total of winners with some less than blooded animals has continued steadily upwards.

Golden Cross was his 54th winner of the 2003 calendar year, Halford's best total yet. The horse may yet take his trainer on to that elusive next level where quality can weigh in alongside the quantity. Not that such grandiose thoughts regularly plague the former amateur jockey.

"Since two thirds of the horses I have are flat horses I suppose numerically I am a flat trainer, but it doesn't really matter. It's hard to make a living in Ireland from just one code and I've always loved the jumps," he says.

As job descriptions go, "racehorse trainer" often lends itself to easy substitution, like "flash bastard".

Halford is a happy exception, possibly because his lifelong involvement with horses hasn't followed the usual path to stable boss.

Halford's father, also Michael, is a farrier. So is his uncle George, as is his brother, Robert. Shoeing horses is a hard game, too hard for him.

"They earn every shilling. Physically I wouldn't have lasted a month doing it. I got a weakness in my back and I simply couldn't work at it. My neck was much harder," he says.

Instead, Halford went into pedigree research and amateur riding, ending up as assistant to Noel Meade before starting up as a trainer in 1984.

Just 21 years old and in his first season, he got within a short head of a first Listed success. Reality bit soon after. In the hungry 1980s survival was an achievement in itself, but it took until 2000 before that elusive first Stakes victory came. Along the way Halford learned.

Last year a first Group race came his way with Miss Emma's win in the Greenlands Stakes. The following afternoon he had a first ever treble.

Halford was taking out the best sort of advertising except he is level-headed enough to know it isn't that easy.

"Horses didn't start flowing in at all. There were a few phone calls but I think success like that just strengthens the faith of your existing owners. It proves that given the material you can do the job," he ventures.

Golden Cross has also proved the job gets done in the winter game. A beaten favourite in last season's Triumph Hurdle, Halford never lost faith in the horse.

"Some horses go on from their juvenile year and some don't. See You Then won three Champion Hurdles but got beat in the Triumph. Others win it and are never heard of again.

"When Golden Cross went into the race at Christmas he was rated 130. Now he's 153 so obviously he had made the progress.

"I'm sure other trainers could offer excuses for their horses the last day but now it's up to them to find a way to reverse it," he says.

One excuse was the use of the inner track at Christmas which supposedly led to an insufficient test of stamina. Another was a lack of pace in the race.

But Halford is unconcerned about either.

"My fellah gets two miles on the flat. He wants a stiffer test. I want a strong gallop on Sunday.

"I would be concerned if there isn't. I don't want a sprint," he says.

As for Golden Cross repeating the dose to his opposition, all the trainer will say is time will tell. One gets the feeling however that on the day Halford's belief in his horse might be transmitted to a lot more people than might be expected.

Certainly there will be no 66 to 1 this time.