Noel Meade will make a final decision today, but it now looks like Harchibald will miss Sunday's AIG Europe Irish Champion Hurdle.
Persistent rain meant a scheduled work-out yesterday morning had to be abandoned and Harchibald has all but been ruled out of the Leopardstown feature.
"It was 50-50 yesterday, but it is looking more unlikely now that he will run on Sunday," said Meade yesterday.
Bookmaker reaction was to take Harchibald out of the AIG betting completely, and Macs Joy is now a 6 to 4 favourite with Paddy Power to add to his Christmas success.
However, Harchibald remains the market leader for Cheltenham's Smurfit Champion Hurdle, and Meade added: "I'd think he might go straight to Cheltenham. We'd try and bring him there fresh."
The rain that stopped Harchibald's work-out also made its presence felt at Leopardstown and the ground at the Co Dublin track was yesterday described as "soft to heavy".
Leopardstown's racing manager, Tom Burke, said: "We've had a miserable morning and much more rain than we were expecting. We were told to expect patchy rain but this is persistent and I would say the ground is soft to heavy. We could certainly have done without it."
That's bad news for other AIG hopefuls such as Hardy Eustace and Accordion Etoile, both of whom would be unlikely to be risked on heavy going on Sunday. Hardy Eustace's trainer, Dessie Hughes, plans to examine the track himself before tomorrow's declaration stage.
One result of the poor weather has been the steady support for the star stayer Solerina, who was cut by Power yesterday to 9 to 2 from 11 to 2.
The 2004 AIG winner Foreman has been installed as favourite to successfully deputise for Like-A-Butterfly in Sunday's main supporting race, the Baileys Arkle Trophy.
Like-A-Butterfly's participation hinged on a blood test result, but while that picture has improved it wasn't enough to persuade Christy Roche she should run.
"It's getting better but she's not there yet. We'll look at something like the PJ Moriarty for next, because we want to get a run into her before Cheltenham," the trainer said.
Noel Meade also confirmed yesterday that Sir Oj, an unlucky, last-fence faller in the Durkan New Homes Chase over Christmas, will also take his chance in the Arkle.
PADDY POWER BETTING
AIG: 6-4 Macs Joy, 11-4 Brave Inca, 9-2 Solerina, 6 Hardy Eustace, 7 Accordion Etoile, 8 Georges Girl.
Arkle: 13-8 Foreman, 3 Sir Oj, 100-30 Ned Kelly, 13-2 Scarthy Lad, 8 Ulaan Baatar, 14 Bar.
