With just a day to go before the election for the presidency of the Olympic Council of Ireland (OCI) takes place, the incumbent president Pat Hickey remains the front-runner against challenger Richard Burrows.
The election may hang on the fact that the executive committee will carry a block of 10 votes from the 37 available. The other 27 votes will be cast by the affiliated summer and winter Olympic federations.
Hickey has probably all but definitely seven of those 10 executive votes. Tom Rafter (fencing), Willie O'Brien (archery) and Billy Kennedy (cycling) were not contactable yesterday. The remaining seven - Louis Kilcoyne (football), Shay McDonald (gymnastics), Dermot Sherlock (boxing), Peadar Casey (rowing), Aidan Curran (volleyball), Dermot Henihan (rowing) and Hickey himself - will vote for Hickey.
Hickey has maintained that he will convincingly win the vote but the rival camp have said that they are confident of getting 14 votes with a number of federations not yet publicly committed one way or the other. Nineteen votes will win the election in a first-past-the-post private ballot.
While the margin is thin, it is possible that the Burrows camp could still make up the margin if the `floaters' side with them. But the odds are stacked against them.
Traditionally the executive committee has been loyal to Hickey. Indeed it has changed little over the past 12 years with just three members departing. David Balbirnie (hockey) was forced to resign in 1996 while Brendan O'Connell (canoeing) resigned in protest over how Hickey was running the organisation. The third member Agnes Tuohy did not put herself forward for re-election.
Both Hickey and Burrows yesterday expressed confidence on RTE News of gaining enough votes, with Hickey backing off from his supporters' original claims last week of a landslide victory to one of being "quietly confident."
The Athletes' Commission and his own association judo, who he had confidently predicted would support him, have declined to do so and will back Burrows.
Of the 10 sports that travelled to Sydney for the Games last summer, Burrows' supporters claim to have seven on his side - athletics, swimming, boxing, canoeing, sailing, badminton and equestrian - with two others still uncommitted,
They see this as significant in view of the athletes publicly supporting their candidate and the independent Sydney Review, which was extremely critical of the way the OCI handled the athletes during the Olympic Games.
The athletes' disenchantment also arises from the belief that they were offered a vote in the election by the OCI. That now is not the case, nor is it in the power of the OCI executive to offer anyone a voting position without first going through correct procedures. This, the OCI say, was explained to the athletes.
The Burrows camp are relying on the federations to listen to the Athletes' Commission, but given the unwavering commitment of the executive, Hickey clearly has a significant advantage.
"Do you need to ask me who I'm voting for - Pat Hickey," said OCI treasurer Peadar Casey.
Volleyball's Aidan Curran was equally forthright "Number one vote Pat Hickey. Absolutely no doubt whatsoever," he said. Another executive member, rowing's Dermot Henihan, added that the Sydney Review was an excellent document, "but I'll be voting for Pat Hickey."
Hickey's camp predict that at the very least archery, football, gymnastics, rowing, baseball, Taekwondo, weightlifting and volleyball will carry his name, which along with the 10 executive votes brings his total to 18. That means he needs the support of only one other federation for victory. The vote takes place tomorrow night in Dublin.
