MAGNERS LEAGUE:LEINSTER HAVE already qualified for the Magners League semi-finals but they could yet miss out on a home tie while Munster's campaign may completely unravel if they are emptied by the Blues in Cardiff on Sunday evening; that would mean no silverware for the first time since 2007 and ruin the lingering hope of a Croke Park, all-Irish, final.
With six teams still having something to play for entering the last round of regular fixtures, this is what Celtic Rugby Ltd intended when they switched to a play-off format this season.
Should Dai Young’s Blues stretch their winning streak to seven matches, in all competitions, and pick up a bonus point for tries scored they would leap over the defending champions and into the top four. They would not require the bonus point if they win by more than seven points and deny Munster four tries.
If the latter scenario transpires Edinburgh could conceivably sneak up the rails into fourth by beating Leinster with a bonus point at the RDS Showgrounds (both kick off at 6.15pm). Edinburgh are equal on 40 points with Cardiff, four points adrift of Munster, although they have a significantly weaker points difference, of plus-three, than both rivals.
Second placed Ospreys (47 points), who play the Dragons, and third placed Glasgow Warriors (46 points), who face the Scarlets, both matches are tonight, could also move ahead of Leinster (50 points) and into the valuable home advantage slots. The Scarlets’, as the last placed Welsh franchise, only route into next season’s Heineken Cup is for the Cardiff Blues to beat Toulon in the Amlin Challenge Cup final in Marseilles on May 23rd.
Cardiff, however, are beginning to crumble under the strain of competing on two fronts. Martyn Williams may be benched with the heir to his openside flanker throne Sam Warburton coming in after Williams’s heroics this season continued in last weekends 18-15 defeat away to Wasps in the Challenge Cup semi-final.
That result has taken its toll with Gethin Jenkins laid low with an ankle problem, adding to a frontrow crisis that sees Tau Filise and Gary Powell out with a groin and ruptured Achilles respectively, while Sam Hobbs is nursing a head injury. They only have three fit props so Jenkins is expected to be patched up and wheeled out for an umpteenth meeting with John Hayes.
“From our point of view we will not be looking to rest a number of players, as we want to be in the play-offs also, however, with the Amlin Cup final around the corner we are not going to risk some players who are maybe carrying bumps,” said Young.
Big number eight Andy Powell is definitely out with a calf problem and so is international winger Tom James. Xavier Rush provides adequate cover for Powell in his last game in Cardiff before switching to Ulster.
Welsh lock Bradley Davies is rated doubtful due to a recurring back spasm and, to round it all off, international scrumhalves Richie Rees (ankle) and Gareth Cooper are unavailable so Darren Allinson retains his place at number nine. Allison cannot be a poor third choice if London Irish have opted to sign him ahead of next season.
Despite the injury list, the Blues boast a serious backline run by Ceri Sweeney and including Jamie Roberts, Leigh Halfpenny and All Black place kicker Ben Blair. Their current six-game unbeaten run stretches back to the 29-20 defeat to Leinster on March 7th.
Munster are hardly in a superior state with a secondrow crisis to rival the Cardiff propping concerns. The absence of Paul O’Connell, Mick O’Driscoll and Donnacha Ryan means Billy Holland or even Alan Quinlan may be redeployed to the engine room. Wingers Doug Howlett and Ian Dowling are also gone as well as long-term casualty Denis Leamy.
Flipping the whole conundrum on its head, Munster can secure a semi-final in Thomond Park should they win with some comfort in the Welsh capital. However, that scenario is unlikely as the Ospreys and Glasgow are facing sides with nothing left to play for – so one of them is bound to win.
