MAGNERS LEAGUE: IT'S DOUBTFUL whether the burden of history will weigh more heavily on a team going into a Magners League fixture all season than on Connacht at Ravenhill this evening. It's not so much that they've forgotten how to win there, for Michael Bradley wasn't even born the last time Connacht won in Belfast, much less any of his players.
Burnley were the reigning English football champions and that summer the USSR had beaten Yugoslavia in the final of the European Championships and Muhammad Ali had just won gold at the Rome Olympics, while a week before, John F Kennedy had just been elected President of the United States.
Connacht's 6-3 win in Ravenhill on November 16th, 1960 was, remarkably, their fourth in a row at the ground, but since then they've suffered 26 consecutive defeats in Belfast over the last 48 years.
Nor does recent history give them much cause for optimism either, for they have only won once on the road in the Magners League since September 2006, against the Dragons at the tail-end of last season. Thus far this season, Connacht have shipped 16 tries and 103 points in just two away games, against the Scarlets and the Blues, but admittedly, it's quite clear Bradley has rotated his squad with a view to targeting their home games.
Tonight though, after the sorely needed November hiatus had given his over-worked squad a breather, just as clearly he is making an exception to that policy. After all, this could be the first of two critical head-to-heads with a view to qualifying for next season's Heineken Cup, bearing in mind Ulster's double over Connacht last season went a large way to securing the third Irish place.
In the absence of the injured Liam Bibo and Michael Roberts, Connacht were a little caught for pace out wide against Edinburgh last time out in the league and so Bradley has shifted leading try scorer Fionn Carr to the right wing, with Gavin Duffy moving to fullback and Keith Matthews returning for his first game since the win over Glasgow 10 weeks ago alongside Mel Deane in midfield. Up against the in-form duo of Paddy Wallace and Darren Cave, they'll have their hands full.
Duffy also captains the side as Connacht have lost their inspirational leader John Muldoon - assuredly Bradley's first name on the team sheet when fit - and so Ray Ofisa returns. With Mike McCarthy returning for his first game since his eventful night against Leinster - incurring a yellow card, scoring a try and being sent off - and his ensuing suspension, in all other respects, it is ostensibly a first-choice selection.
However, if Bradley has targeted this game, then so too have Matt Williams and Ulster. Buoyed by successive home league wins over Edinburgh and Munster, they sit three points above Connacht. Effectively this is the team that handsomely beat Munster last time out, with Ian Humphreys - the catalyst for much of their best work that night after coming on in the first quarter for Niall O'Connor - making a belated first competitive start for his native province. The only other change to the starting line-up sees former Ireland A speedster Mark McCrea start his first competitive game for his province this season in place of the injured Andrew Trimble.
"We have to have a mentality that this is a must-win game," said Stephen Ferris yesterday, and all in all, you'd have to think that Ulster have the better defence as well as more pace and running threats across the three-quarter line.
ULSTER: B Cunningham; T Nagusa, D Cave, P Wallace, M McCrea; I Humphreys, C Willis; J Fitzpatrick, R Best (capt), B Botha, E O'Donoghue, R Caldwell, S Ferris, D Pollock, R Diack.
Replacements: N Brady, T Court, M McCullough, K Dawson, I Boss, P Steinmetz, S Danielli.
CONNACHT: G Duffy (capt); F Carr, M Deane, K Matthews, T Nathan; I Keatley, F Murphy; B Wilkinson, S Cronin, R Morris; M McCarthy, A Farley; R Ofisa, J O'Connor, C Rigney. Replacements: A Flavin, R Loughney, A Browne, M Swift, K Campbell, T Donnelly, J Hearty.
Referee: Peter Fitzgibbon (IRFU).
Previous League meetings: (03-04) Connacht 31 Ulster 20; Ulster 42 Connacht 27; (04-05) Connacht 13 Ulster 19; Ulster 23 Connacht 14; (05-6) Ulster 36 Connacht 10; Connacht 22 Ulster 12; (06-07) Connacht 17 Ulster 24; Ulster 20 Connacht 10; (07-08) Connacht 13 Ulster 30; Ulster 18 Connacht 6.
Leading points scorers: Ulster: Clinton Schifcofske 21. Connacht: Ian Keatley 26.
Leading try scorers: Ulster: Timoci Nagusa, Kieron Dawson, Isaac Boss 2 each. Connacht: Fionn Carr 2.
Betting (Paddy Powers): 1/7 Ulster, 25/1 Draw, 4/1 Connacht. Handicap odds (= Connacht + 12 pts) 10/11 Ulster, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 Connacht.
Verdict: Ulster to win.
