ON RUGBY:Wembley or Bordeaux loom like daunting semi-finals, should Leinster get there. By contrast, events have panned out better for Munster and Ulster, writes GERRY THORNLEY

TO SOME extent, winning a Heineken Cup is almost beyond a coach’s control, and never more so than after qualifying for the knockout stages. Michael Cheika discovered this in the last couple of seasons. While earning a home quarter-final is helpful, it is not critical, and thereafter much depends on the vagaries of the Six Nations, specifically with regard to wear and tear, and home advantage in the semi-finals.

Three seasons ago, Leinster rolled up their sleeves for that 6-5 quarter-final win away to Harlequins to earn a semi-final, where their ‘away’ draw was negated by playing Munster in front of a world record 82,208 attendance at Croke Park. Munster went into that game as strong favourites on the back of being champions, their supremacy over Leinster in previous fixtures, the rout of the Ospreys in the quarter-finals and their recognition by the Lions’ management.

But losing Felipe Contepomi early on merely ensured the rebirth of Jonathan Sexton’s career and they went on to beat Leicester in neutral Murrayfield in the final.

Two seasons ago, however, despite earning an epic home quarter-final against Clermont, which they won 29-28, Leinster lost Sexton to a broken jaw in the fallout from that game and were drawn away to Toulouse in the semi-finals. That proved a double whammy which was compounded by scrum problems.

Last season, Leinster again earned a home quarter-final against Leicester and emerged from both the Six Nations and that tie unscathed before the luck of the draw gave them a home semi-final against Toulouse and then their epic comeback in the final against Northampton at neutral Cardiff.

In one sense, therefore, the last two Heineken Cups could have been determined by the draw for “home” semi-finals between Leinster and Toulouse. Of the 32 previous semi-finals, the ‘home’ side has won 20 of them, and of the dozen “away” wins, two were on try countback or penalty shoot-out after draws, and two were all-Irish, Leinster-Munster semi-finals in Dublin.

Prior to the last round of pool games and after the quarter-final pairings and semi-final draws were determined, Munster went from 9 to 1 to 7 to 2 favourites on the back of their 51-36 win in Northampton which secured a home quarter-final against Ulster and home advantage in the semis against either Edinburgh or Toulouse.

Leinster also earned a home quarter-final against Cardiff Blues by beating Montpellier, but were drawn away to either Saracens or Clermont. Furthermore, the fallout to the Six Nations left their nine-strong Irish contingent fairly battered and deflated. True, only Mike Ross emerged with an injury, and he ought to return this weekend against Munster, but he was one of six who started four Tests on successive weekends.

Needless to say, all were rested last weekend, when Brian O’Driscoll and Leo Cullen returned after surgery and Brad Thorn made his debut as they unluckily surrendered their 20-game unbeaten run. Suddenly, though, aside from reactivating a side that effectively hasn’t been together for nine weeks, they could see what was an 11-point lead last week shrink to four or five if they lose in Thomond Park this Saturday.

The following week, Leinster host Cardiff Blues in the Heineken quarter-final, whose seven-strong Welsh contingent are, of course, coming off the high of a Grand Slam.

Admittedly, Sam Warburton is out for another five weeks with a shoulder injury and Cardiff lost an abysmal Welsh-derby at home to the Scarlets last Saturday.

But, while Alex Cuthbert and Lloyd Williams played, the Blues rested Gethin Jenkins, Jamie Roberts, Leigh Halfpenny and Bradley Davies and, unlike the Scarlets and the Ospreys (who have only the Pro12 to play for), have clearly targeted Europe this season judging by their league results before returning to the Heineken Cup.

Should the holders advance to the semis, the majority of Leinster supporters would probably prefer Saracens, but here again their six-strong English contingent were at the vanguard of England’s rejuvenation.

Charlie Hodgson, Matt Stevens and Brad Barritt were all involved in last Friday’s five-try, 45-9 win away to Sale which kept them on Harlequins’ heels, when Owen Farrell, David Strettle and Mouritz Botha were all rested. This Saturday, Mark McCall’s reigning English Premiership champions host Harlequins at Wembley, and with over 75,000 tickets already sold the game is threatening the aforementioned Croker record.

In their centenary season, Clermont are just as buoyant and look, at the moment, in slightly better nick than Toulouse, whose lead they trimmed to a point after a 40th successive home win at the expense of Perpignan last Saturday. At least a potential home semi-final will be moved to Bordeaux, but this win also extended an unbeaten record anywhere dating back to November, and immediately afterwards Vern Cotter was talking of the game’s usefulness in readiness for their quarter-final against Saracens, who have kept that tie at Vicarage Road.

Whereas Cotter rested Wesley Fofana, Aurélien Rougerie and Julien Bonnaire, Guy Noves gambled on playing Lionel Beauxis, Louis Picamoles, Yohan Montès and, one presumes most reluctantly of all, William Servat. With no other fit hooker, Toulouse were given medical dispensation to sign the Georgian World Cup squad member Jaba Bregvadze as cover, but, off the bench, he couldn’t hit the proverbial barn door as Toulouse lost to Bordeaux/Begles in front of 36,000 at Stade Chaban Dalmas.

All in all, Wembley or Bordeaux loom like daunting semi-finals, should Leinster get there. By contrast, events have panned out better for Munster and Ulster.

The Six Nations demands on their duo were comparatively lighter and thus less damaging.

The winner of their Heineken Cup quarter-final will also have home advantage against the winners of the Edinburgh- Toulouse tie.

Leinster remain a class act, but those 9 to 4 odds on Leinster don’t look very tempting.

Ps: Time waits for no man and all that, and though not surprising, it was sad to learn confirmation of both Jerry Flannery and Bob Casey retiring. At the time of his selection for the Lions three years ago, Flannery was the best hooker in Europe. If pushing himself to his limits may have contributed ultimately to his repeated calf problems, it also contributed to him maximising his talents in a career in which he also played key roles in a Grand Slam, two Heineken Cups and two Magners League winners medals. Also a top bloke and considered, intelligent talker, he’ll be missed in the press box too.

Likewise, the game has never produced a more thoroughly likeable bloke than Bob Casey. He assuredly should have won more than seven caps, but, typical of him, never held any grudges about that, and he can also be proud of a career in which he led Ireland to their Churchill Cup success in 2009 as well as captaining his club from 2007 to 2011. He was the Irish in London Irish.