Four games down and already some say the writing is on the wall for Glenn Roeder at West Ham. In one way they are right: where the words "Harry Redknapp" used to be in the car park at the club's training ground, a sign now says "Staff Only". No name: the taxi driver seemed to think that said it all.
But all it says, in fact, is that West Ham have not appointed a personality manager to succeed Redknapp. That is somewhat different from saying the manager they have appointed does not have a personality. As someone who spent part of the early 1990s in the employ of Lazio as the "minder" of Paul Gascoigne, Roeder does not need to prove his familiarity with celebrity. This is a man who has been to the circus.
Roeder has seen the fame game and how it is played. Consequently, as he sits in what until May was Redknapp's office, he is pretty relaxed for a man whose side has only one goal (a penalty), two points and a league position adjacent to Burnley's.
"There is so much hype in the Premiership that some supporters seem much more comfortable with so-called personality managers," he said. "I understand that, but choosing a football manager isn't an exact science." Roeder knows that all too well. After four years in charge at Gillingham and Watford, the 45-year-old was coaching-staff only when West Ham set about replacing Redknapp. Alan Curbishley was the preferred choice. When he balked, Steve McClaren was called for. When he rerouted to Middlesbrough, suddenly Roeder was left in the clear. Foinavon, he called himself the day he got the job.
"I certainly wasn't in the first couple of choices, that's for sure," he says with engaging honesty. "It was Alan Curbishley and, for whatever reason, Alan decided not to come here. Alan is very much a West Ham boy and maybe it was a case of right club, wrong time, because the club did spiral downwards badly last year after three great seasons, three top-half finishes.
"It's well documented that Steve McClaren was also offered the job and chose to go to Middlesbrough. How many others were interviewed after that, I really don't know. So if you're saying I got the job by default, you're probably right." Having spoken to every director at the club on different occasions, Roeder thinks he eventually became the manager because "To every question asked, I gave an absolutely honest answer. I didn't try to hide anything. And I always remember the words of Terry Venables way back at QPR: 'If you're going to regret something, regret doing it, don't regret not doing it'." The West Ham directors may well have another story to tell, one based on finance, but they have backed Roeder's judgment so far. The £11million received from Chelsea for Frank Lampard has been reinvested on David James, Tomas Repka and Don Hutchison. In effect Roeder has spent £2million. It's good business. He said he does not need to sell.
Yet James was injured long-term playing for England, Repka was sent off in his first match and Hutchison has said more in the papers than on the pitch. Add to that an injury to Freddie Kanoute that has restricted him to 53 minutes this season, plus a fixture list that has five of West Ham's first seven games away from Upton Park, and it is possible to see why Roeder could make excuses.
He is, however, philosophical. "Other clubs have had trouble; Charlton and Tottenham," he says. But neither are bottom of the league and neither are likely to sack their manager imminently. Nor are West Ham, but Roeder "knows the rules; time is something you don't always get", and the temporary nature of the car-park sign is at least a symbol of the delicacy of his position. For instance, how long is his contract? "I'll be honest, we haven't openly said what it is. I've obviously got a contract, but at Watford I worked without a contract and it didn't bother me. I'm not one of those people who thinks, 'Get a three or four-year deal and if it goes pear-shaped after six months then I'll get a big pay-out'. I don't think like that.
"Some people say, 'Well, you're foolish', but you can only be yourself. That's how society's gone: everyone wants to know about your contract, how much you earn, how big your car is, how big your house is. My only concern is us winning enough games to do well. I grew up in the east end of London, I grew up supporting West Ham. I care as much as any supporter. The contract is not an issue for me." The issues now for Roeder are trying to correct that downward spiral of Redknapp's last year, getting that first win "that would mean so much to the club as a whole", and keeping his millionaires happy.
Joe Cole, for one, was a key player who publicly welcomed Roeder's appointment, but the feeling remains that one outburst from a Paolo di Canio or Kanoute and Roeder would be destabilised. In the first year especially, every manager needs the support of his players.
It was the "just-about-stay-up situation" of last season which Roeder says concerned his directors the most. "It mustn't be like that again, needing to beat Southampton in our second-last game to get security," he says. "The fact is that after Rio Ferdinand left, the club had 26 more games to play and picked up 25 points. The lights should have been flashing red. We know what that would spell if that continued."
Judging by last week's defeat by Middlesbrough at the Riverside, it has continued. Roeder describes himself as "very much hands on" when it comes to his new day job and says: "I was surprised by the performance at Middlesbrough, it was poor. It should have been a horrible 0-0 but two awful individual errors made it 2-0.
"It was a long coach journey home and it was a little bit gloomy, but I told them that I didn't want any long faces, miserable or moody people on Monday morning. And it wasn't like that, the boys have responded well."
Tomorrow brings Newcastle United to Upton Park and another chance to move at last into upbeat mode. Roeder spent six years on Tyneside - "probably the best thing I ever did, I feel lucky and grateful to have been there" - but will be happy enough to get a first win at his old team's expense. There is no special formula, however, to deliver that win. "There is no magic dust," he says. "It's about keeping your nerve." That applies to all at the former ironworks team, even the taxi drivers.
