THE INTERMINABLE hype is over and competitive boilers are set to be stoked to a peak as the Smurfit Champion Hurdle takes centre stage on the opening day of the Cheltenham festival. Significantly, however, it is not just the prospect of the year's greatest racing festival that is making several trainers sweat anxiously.
Beautifully clear skies and a drying wind left the famous track looking at its best yesterday, but every ray and breath of wind seemed to diminish the chance of the reigning champion and current favourite, Collier Bay. Jim Old, normally the sunniest of trainers, became more downbeat by the minute as he examined the drying ground and said quietly: "It won't injure Collier Bay but it definitely won't help him. There are several good ground horses in the race and this throws it into their favour."
It is hardly the hopeful message expected from a favourite's trainer, but it added to the growing belief that, in I'm Supposin, Ireland has the horse to give it its first Champion Hurdle since Dawn Run in 1984. Confidence in the five year old ex Flat racer, though, has never been in short supply from trainer Kevin Prendergast. Battle hardened from the Flat, where he only just fell below Group race winning standard, I'm Supposin has thrilled Prendergast at how naturally he has taken to hurdling, and his belief has not wavered.
"I honestly think he is going to be very hard to beat. He couldn't be in better shape and while others don't know how their horses will go on the ground, I know my fellow will," Prendergast said yesterday.
The question mark against I'm Supposin is in just having had two winning races against novices. This makes him by far the most inexperienced horse in the field, but that didn't stop two horses who had similar preparations,
Alderbrook and Royal Gait, winning it, and I'm Supposin's Flat rating compares favourably with theirs.
Space Trucker is the other main hope among the seven strong Irish team and is another who will thrive on the dry ground. Vastly improved this season, he surprised even his trainer Jessica Harrington by how well he won his warm up race for today at Leopardstown nine days ago. Improving horses with conditions falling in their favour can be dangerous opponents and jockey John Shortt knows all about I'm Supposin's ability, having ridden him in his two starts. He admits to being fearful of the younger horse's natural ability.
Of the English trained horses, Large Action, already placed twice before in this race, should run a typically honest race without being quite good enough again. Make A Stand is an effective front runner but may not be suited by the Cheltenham undulations, which leaves the intriguing possibility that Sanmartino, a late substitute for his injured stablemate Relkeel, could turn the Champion Hurdle into a battle of the novices. If it does come to that, then the Irish should be cheering when Charlie Swan delivers I'm Supposin with what will, one hopes, be a devastating late finish.
It may be a day when Irish cheers are heard gratifyingly frequently. Many I'm Supposin fans will be hoping Finnegan's Hollow, second to the Champion Hurdle hopeful at Naas, will boost the form in the opening Citroen Supreme Novices' Hurdle, but Aidan O'Brien's horse has burst blood vessels already this season and that doesn't inspire confidence about him finishing strongly up the hill. Graphic Equaliser can boost the Naas form in his place. Only a head behind Finnegan's Hollow then, Graphic Equaliser didn't get a clear run and was unsuited by the ground. At around 10 to 1 he represents sound each way value to give little known Co Offaly trainer Frank Lacy a fairytale success.
In contrast, Edward O'Grady is the most successful current Irish trainer at the festival and Time For A Run, a previous festival winner himself, can add to the score in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir. The distance of his last race was far too short, and, judged on his Leopardstown Chase victory in January, Time For A Run is well handicapped. The fact he has the best jockey in the race in Philip Fenton won't harm his chance either.
The Hamlet Gold Card Final has only the one Irish runner in Miltonfield, and while such hugely competitive races can often develop into lotteries, Richard Dunwoody's mount possesses the sort of finishing kick that will always make him a danger.
Blind patriotism can be an expensive luxury at Cheltenham, however, and the best bet of the day looks to be General Command in the Astec Buzz Shop Handicap Chase. Unbeaten this season and very impressive in Doncaster's Great Yorkshire Chase, General Command carries substantial stable confidence.
Mulligan is many people's idea of the festival banker and on form is hard to oppose. However, most of that form is on far easier ground than he will face today and at short odds he doesn't look great value. Ultimately it may be futile opposing Mulligan, but for each way value, it is worth looking at Flying Instructor. An easy winner since being beaten by Mulligan on his debut, Flying Instructor comes from a yard that have hit form at the right time and, importantly the horse is proven on the ground.
. Paul Carberry is confident he will be fit to ride at Cheltenham despite wrenching his left knee in a weekend fall. Yesterday he reported considerable improvement to the injury after physiotherapy.
