Charlie Swan, who will be The Irish Times guest tipster at the Cheltenham Festival, can't see an out-and-out banker bet this year.

I was lucky enough to ride 17 winners at the festival but even though Cheltenham turned out to be wonderful for me it wasn't like that at the beginning. I was only 18 when I had my first ride, Irish Dream in the Triumph Hurdle, and ended up breaking my arm in a fall. Then on the way back to the weigh-room in the ambulance, a car crashed into us. It's no wonder my first impressions of the place weren't great and it proved you can take nothing for granted there.

Most times there is at least one banker bet. A horse you can tell from well before will be very hard to beat. But this is the first festival in years I can't see an out-and-out banker. Brave Inca in the Champion Hurdle is the nearest to one, but he still has to face a true champion in Hardy Eustace. Tony McCoy is definitely a plus. He is so determined, knows Cheltenham well and just as importantly he knows the opposition too.

If he's most people's idea of a great bet, I reckon a good outsider could be Oulart if he runs in the Kim Muir. He won the Pertemps last year and is in that race again, but it seems to me he is coming into form at the right time over fences and is well handicapped.

Moscow Flyer has been a fixture for the last four years and I think people might be writing him off too soon. A third Champion Chase is definitely still possible. An awful lot seems to be being read into a recent work-out at Leopardstown but it should be remembered that Moscow Flyer was never able to win a bumper. It's unfair to expect him to work real well on the flat. I still think the race is between him, Kauto Star and possibly Fota Island if the ground is fast.

Like a lot of people I would love if Beef Or Salmon could win the Gold Cup and on soft ground he will have a great chance. On soft going they won't jump as quick but if it's good he could end up outpaced. They really do motor over there. Monkerhostin looks like he stays a lot better now and on good ground he would be the one.

The Arkle looks a great race but Accordion Etoile must have a great chance. He's won on the course and my only concern is that his regular jockey, John Cullen, isn't fit to ride. Barry Geraghty is some substitute to have, but he looks a horse that might not be the easiest ride and John knows him inside out.

I hope to have three runners and if one of them became my first festival winner as a trainer it would be a huge boost to my career. I know some people think there is too much focus on the festival but when someone buys a horse, at the back of their mind is always the hope they might be good enough to get to Cheltenham.

Oodachee and Contact Dancer are both in the Pertemps and have chances. Oodachee is rated 10lb higher in Britain which is harsh considering he's only won one hurdle, and that was at Sligo. He's been very unlucky, though. He was once beaten in a June maiden at Roscommon by Accordion Etoile. Contact Dancer has won an English Cesarewitch so the three-and-a-quarter-mile trip shouldn't be a problem.

Hopefully it will be third time lucky for Ground Ball in the Grand Annual. He was going like a winner last year when he got rid of David Casey at the 10th and he was second in 2004.

Overall, though, I would be surprised if Irish horses do as well as last year. The handicapper in Britain hasn't given us much chance, especially over hurdles, and I think we'll struggle in the handicaps. I think we'll do well to have five winners.

Good luck finding them.