Gerry Thornley On Rugby: Few games will carry more significance in the remainder of this Irish season than Munster's grand pool finale against Wasps this Saturday in Thomond Park in the Heineken European Cup.
After the crushing anti-climax of the World Cup, Leinster's probable failure to progress to the quarter-finals and Ulster's ongoing woes, it is almost imperative that Munster keep the flag flying into April in Europe given the umbilical link they especially, and by extension Irish rugby, have built with this tournament. And whoever writes their scripts, it was almost inevitable it would come down to this.
Anthony Foley, forever with his finger on the pulse of what truly matters, was both correct and astute in reinvoking the memory of Leicester's win in Thomond Park on the same weekend a year ago. If Leicester were the last team Munster probably wanted coming to Thomond Park on the last day before it was knocked down and rebuilt, then a year on Wasps now fall into that category. In fact, across all the six pools and all of Europe, on current form you'd make them the single most difficult side Munster could face at this juncture.
They are the defending champions and - it goes without saying when a team is led by Lawrence Dallaglio - few clubs will defend that honour more resolutely than them. The reigning European Cup champions were undermined significantly by England's heavy reliance on a core of their players in their resilient march to the World Cup final, since when domestically they have been undone by a recurring inability to press home a three-try advantage with a bonus point.
That problem has not been so acute in Europe, or at any rate in their meetings with Llanelli and, no less than Leicester, they'll simply relish the task of going to Munster's fortress. "Once a Wasp always a Wasp" is their proud mantra. They'll rush up in defence, attempt to smash anything that moves and generally attempt to bully Munster in all the collisions. They're a funny club, as they showed in moving the first meeting to Coventry's Ricoh Arena from their relatively small base out in their High Wycombe outpost. They've shown it repeatedly in French fortresses over the years too. It doesn't really matter where they play. In fact, the more hostile the environment, the more they seem to flourish. In their mentality, there's almost a whiff of Wimbledon's footballers in their pomp, and that is meant as a compliment.
Munster will have to be at their very best, much better from the off than they were in their rusty, error-strewn opening in Clermont. But, given the stakes and the game under their belts, they assuredly will be. Ultimately, Munster have effectively put out a Clermont side playing close to their best on their home soil, who of all the sides already out of contention to all intents and purposes, are probably the best equipped to win the Cup outright.
You wouldn't put Leicester or Biarritz in that category, or, if they are not granted a last-weekend reprieve, even Stade Francais. Less viable contenders will progress to the last eight, and viewed in that light to even still be in contention puts Leinster in a better light. Indeed, in a group which has yielded only one away win, Toulouse's victory in Edinburgh looks infinitely better than it was given credit for at the time.
Of course, Leinster played abysmally in Murrayfield, especially in the second half, yet barring an unlikely Edinburgh win in Toulouse (when the French side will have the 100 per cent concentration and desire that comes with the threat of eviction) they are sure to go out a bit tamely. Yet, curiously, Leinster are more likely to be the beneficiaries of the moderately changed Irish squad for the Six Nations when the 32 to 34 players are named today.
Like Brian Ashton, and in contrast to the fresh brooms of Nick Mallett, Warren Gatland and Marc Lievrement at Italy, Wales and France respectively, Eddie O'Sullivan will not have the "four-year cycle" which the IRFU now claim they operate within when he divulges the squad at around lunchtime. Simon Easterby's announcement that he will continue on playing after the squad's Christmas get-together also appears like a signal that the team itself will not be drastically changed.
Save for the retired Denis Hickie, and injured trio of Stephen Ferris, Simon Best and Paul O'Connell, it is liable to draw heavily on the World Cup squad. Tony Buckley and Mick O'Driscoll may be the only Munster men in line for promotion, with Frankie Sheahan likely to lose out to Bernard Jackman, one of several rejuvenated Leinster men currently on fire.
Leo Cullen ought to earn a recall, though whether he makes any of the 22-man squads is another matter.
Because of the surfeit of number sixes in an ill-balanced backrow selection, it would be no surprise if the off-form Neil Best also missed out, thereby making room for Jamie Heaslip and possibly also Shane Jennings or Keith Gleeson (the latter having better form, the former having the better age profile and versatility as a sometime blindside as well as openside). Johnny O'Connor could come into consideration too.
Presuming it is the same three scrumhalves, even though Isaac Boss has lost his confidence and his Ulster place and Brian O'Riordan is now playing very assuredly with Bristol, arguably O'Sullivan's biggest decision will be the choice of back-up outhalf. Despite everything, Paddy Wallace has the advantage of being the incumbent, although O'Sullivan might give himself some elbow room by recognising Johnny Sexton's improvement (carefully being nurtured by Leinster despite the incorrect brickbats for sticking with the genius that is Felipe Contepomi last Saturday).
Similarly, Luke Fitzgerald's finishing and quick feet - which for once saw the biter, Vincent Clerc, being bitten at the RDS on Saturday - should earn him inclusion, and so too Tommy Bowe's form for Ulster while all around him are losing theirs.
