SOCCER WORLD CUP 2010 QUALIFYING:IT'S NEVER, of course, safe to make assumptions, but Italy's 2-0 win over Bulgaria on Wednesday night made it more than likely that the Italians will top Group Eight – a point against the Republic in Dublin next month would do it, but even if they lost they would still secure first place with a win at home to Cyprus in their last game.
The Republic need two points from their remaining games – at home to Italy and Montenegro – to be certain of finishing second in the group, but less would do if Bulgaria failed to beat Cyprus away and Georgia at home.
Barring a calamitous end to the campaign, then, the Republic are looking good for a play-off place. One more point will ensure that they don’t finish as the worst-ranked second-placed team – which would mean they would miss out on the play-offs. Norway have finished their campaign and, so, can’t better 10 points, the Republic’s current total.
Norway, though, are the only team so far certain of finishing second in their group, so the line-up of possible play-off opponents for the Republic – if they make it that far – could still change dramatically.
A star-studded line-up it could yet be, among those who could still finish second in their groups are France, Portugal and Germany.
Unless Serbia slip up in their last two games France should finish second in Group Seven, while either Germany or Russia (who meet in Moscow next month), from Group Four, will definitely be in the play-offs. A win in Estonia next month would clinch second place in group five for Bosnia-Herzegovina, with Turkey needing them to drop points if they are going to pip them.
Croatia and Ukraine are fighting it out for the runners-up spot in Group Six, already won by England – Croatia, whose last game is away to Kazakhstan, are two points clear but Ukraine have a game in hand.
If they can beat England at home and then Andorra away they will take second place.
Northern Ireland’s hopes of taking the runners-up spot in Group Three all but ended with their home defeat by leaders Slovakia last Saturday – not only would they need to beat the Czech Republic in Prague next month to keep their hopes of a second place finish alive, other results have to go their way: including Slovenia not beating San Marino. (San Marino have lost all nine of their games so far, scored one goal and conceded 44). Slovenia or the Czech Republic, then, look the more likely group runners-up.
Greece and Latvia, who are level on points and meet in Athens next month, won’t have given up on catching group two leaders Switzerland just yet, but it’s more likely one of them will be going through to the play-offs.
That leaves Group One where Denmark lead by three points and complete their campaign with home games against Sweden and Hungary.
They could still be caught, but the chances are Sweden, Portugal and Hungary will contest second place.
If two or more teams finish level on points in first or second place in their group the criteria used to separate them are: (1) goal difference, (2) goals scored, (3) greater number of points obtained in matches between the tied teams, (4) goal difference in matches between the tied teams, (5) greater number of goals scored in matches between the tied teams, (6) A play-off on neutral ground, with extra-time and penalties, if necessary.
Fixture problems
IF IRELAND make it in to the hat those entrusted with the task of looking after the Croke Park pitch will have a special interest in the timing of the home leg.
The first leg of the play-offs will be played on November 14th (a Saturday), the second on the 18th (the following Wednesday).
The Irish rugby team host Australia at the same venue (3pm) on . . . November 15th.
Race for Places
P W D L F A Pts
1 Russia 7 6 0 1 16 4 18
2 France 7 3 3 1 9 8 12
3 Slovenia 7 3 2 2 8 4 11
4 Croatia 7 3 2 2 11 12 11
5 Bosnia-Herz 6 3 1 2 15 7 10
6 Greece 6 3 1 2 9 6 10
7 Norway 8 2 4 2 9 7 10
8 Rep of Ireland 6 2 4 0 6 4 10
9 Sweden 6 2 3 1 4 3 9
THE WINNERS of the nine European groups automatically qualify for the World Cup finals, with the eight best runners-up going through to the play-offs (played over two legs on November 14th and 18th) for the four remaining qualifying slots.
Group Nine has five teams, one less than all the other groups, so when calculating the best runners-up, results from matches against bottom teams in Groups One to Eight will be discounted.
The criteria used to determine the eight best runners-up are: (1) total points, (2) goal difference, (3) goals scored, (4) goals scored away from home, (5) disciplinary record (6) drawing of lots.
