Gerry Thornley On Rugby:Two rounds gone and already a breather is required from the Heineken European Cup, not least for battle-scarred Leinster. Not that intervening trips to the Ospreys and Munster in the Magners Celtic League constitute much of a breather before they return to the European fray with back-to-back meetings with Edinburgh.

But the argument for a sustained European Cup run-off, à la the Super 14, has its flaws too, and akin to the Champions League, the appetite has been whetted now.

The break also affords an opportunity to take stock and already there are some compelling and ominous signals that European rugby is becoming ever more like European football, with the Irish provinces now struggling to cling on to the expensive shirt-tails of an ever-strengthening elite.

Of course, impressions swing wildly from one week to the next. One only has to think of Leinster's graph over the opening two weeks to appreciate that. We should also bear in mind that, for example, five of last season's half-dozen English clubs lost on the opening weekend, and at this point a year ago the England clubs had registered four wins and eight defeats. Yet by the end of the tournament, they'd rallied sufficiently to have three of the four semi-finalists and both finalists.

Even so, after two rounds of the European Cup, the combined record of the French Top 14 clubs is played 12, won nine and lost three. The tally for the seven Guinness Premiership clubs is played 14, won nine, drawn one and lost four. By stark contrast, the overall record for the 10 Celtic teams is played 18, won five, drawn one and lost 12.

In head-to-heads, the Celtic League teams have won two, drawn one and lost five of their meetings with English Premiership clubs, and against French teams have won two and lost four of their half-dozen collisions. Admittedly this is in part down to the surprisingly poor showings of the Welsh regions, whose post-World Cup hangover seems to be even more severe than Ireland's.

Ulster's limitations and troubles have been sorely exposed and their trip to Galway next Friday is arguably now bigger than any of their remaining four cup matches.

Munster and Leinster have arguably been apart in winning their home matches and losing their away matches, but of course a crucial difference is Munster have picked up bonus points and Leinster haven't. Cutting their cloth to suit the conditions, Munster weren't especially creative - though the Brian Carney try was a beauty - but they have clearly and quickly rediscovered their old esprit de corps and you always felt they would obtain their bonus point.

Well and all as Toulouse played, Leinster came up short. They over-kicked, and kicked poorly, inviting Toulouse to counter and consequently increased their defensive workload, eventually to breaking point.

They committed too many silly turnovers and made far too many handling errors to build up any momentum, resorted to chasing the game too early, conceded one soft try and sorely missed the influential Chris Whitaker, notably as defensive sweeper for the third Toulouse try.

Most regrettable of all, bearing in mind the Michael Cheika mantra about every point being vital, was to start seeking a consolation try from inside their own 22 in injury-time when moving Christian Warner into outhalf for a planned set-piece move. The ensuing fourth try by Toulouse could ultimately leave Leinster with an ever steeper mountain to climb. It's easy to say from the stands, of course, and the gut instinct of players on the receiving end of Sunday's type of beating is to try to score from deep, but their pride got the better of their judgment there.

As befits a squad bristling with big-game players, Toulouse have turned it on in style for their two big, home games to date and it will, hopefully, be an altogether different game when Leinster host Toulouse at the RDS. And maybe the Celts - and especially the Welsh and the Irish - will rally. Nevertheless there are clear signals the leading English and French clubs' financial muscle is leaving everyone else in their slipstream (even those in their own leagues), with the Celts as much the victims as the Southern Hemisphere countries.

It's true that far more often than not, the Irish provinces bring something to the European Cup that money cannot buy, but money is talking louder than ever on the pitch, as it invariably does.

At the risk of becoming repetitive, there is an elite now within the European game that is beginning to ape football. This should worry rugby, for the leagues within leagues domestically throughout European football, plus the yawn-inducing group stages in which the big guns advance relatively unbothered in the Champions League, have made football boringly predictable.

In rugby, the Southern Hemisphere is rapidly becoming a breeding ground for the elite European clubs, à la South America and Africa in football, with the Super 14, Tri-Nations and World Cup acting as a glorified fire sale for the European super clubs.

A key difference is rugby is even more concentrated. As has been written here before, there is a self-perpetuating elite at the upper end of the French and English leagues, with the likes of Toulouse, Stade Français, Biarritz, Perpignan, Leicester, Wasps and Sale virtually assured of European Cup qualification every season.

Nothing highlighted that better than comparing the Toulouse bench, containing as it did seven full internationals including four players who had just returned from the World Cup along with the 10 in the starting line-up. By contrast, the Leinster bench's combined haul of caps amounted to one, Luke Fitzgerald's against the Pacific Islands.

The last two weeks does not mark the death of the Irish and Welsh as genuine European Cup challengers. But much more of this and that day may not be too far away.