Twelve months ago, on the eve of the 1998 Smurfit Champion Hurdle, Aidan O'Brien told Charlie Swan that Istabraq would not just beat his opposition, he would destroy them.
Unfortunately, that little gem only emerged to a wider audience afterwards and no doubt there are some still wondering how they missed a 3 to 1 SP about a 12-length winner that looked as good a hurdler as has ever stared through a bridle.
Twelve months later and a miserly 4 to 7 is as good as any punter is going to get. The "secret" is well out. Four nonchalant victories this season have only confirmed the obvious. Istabraq is a special racehorse who looks to have today's hurdling championship at his mercy. Every shred of evidence suggests his 12 opponents, including stable companion Theatreworld and Noel Meade's Nomadic, are battling for second. And yet O'Brien is playing a very straight bat to anyone suggesting the Champion Hurdle is just a £200,000 lap of honour.
"There is no such thing as a certainty. Every horse can be beaten and will be beaten eventually. This is a championship race and they are never foregone conclusions," the Master of Ballydoyle said yesterday. No doubt England cricket fans wish their charges could bat so straight. But O'Brien, while understandably confident, is taking nothing for granted.
"Up to now Istabraq has looked brilliant this season but this race is the acid test. He is a heavier horse this year and we don't know how that is going to work out. So much depends on luck in running and a lot of the opposition are unexposed, in that this is their first year in Champion Hurdle class," O'Brien added.
The main English hope, French Holly, falls into that category. A brilliant winner of last year's SunAlliance, travelled to Leopardstown in January for a clash with Istabraq and returned having experienced the Irish champion in his full disdainful pomp.
French Holly's trainer, Wexford-born Ferdy Murphy, believes a mistake at the third-last obstacle made a big difference on that occasion and that French Holly will be much better with a lead. Both points are valid but equally valid is the view that Istabraq will strip much fitter today.
O'Brien confirmed that Istabraq's entry to the parade ring will be kept as late as possible to help prevent any possibility of the horse boiling over in the heated atmosphere, and analysing the field it's hard to believe that anything but a temperament problem or appalling luck in running can logically beat the horse.
Of the other English hopes, the decent flat horse Grey Shot, would prefer better ground than is likely, Martin Pipe's Lady Cricket is unproven at this level and her stable companion, Blowing Wind, has looked just a good handicapper this season.
Theatreworld and Nomadic will have their each-way supporters and those each-way hopes are realistic, although the poor record of five-year-olds in his race mitigates against Nomadic. But each-way is all those hopes are.
Given average luck in running, it's impossible to oppose Istabraq as the likely winner of his second Champion Hurdle in a row. This time, demolition is widely expected.
