He may not be at a peak yet, he may have been beaten last time out and he may be treating the AIB Festival Hurdle as little more than a glorified training gallop but if Istabraq doesn't win today then any semblance of a connection between logic and racing can be blindfolded and shot.
Put simply, Istabraq is the best hurdler in these islands, quite possibly the best we've seen this decade and very definitely an odds on favourite to pick up his third championship in a row next March.
We won't see him at his best until Cheltenham but shock will be an understatement if an upright Istabraq is beaten by any of his five rivals this afternoon.
Shock was a word bandied around freely to describe Istabraq's defeat by Limestone Lad at Fairyhouse a month ago but two and a half miles on very deep ground allowed Pridwell to catch a fully fit champion out at Aintree in 1998 and Limestone Lad is a much more formidable operator than Pridwell ever was, especially when Istabraq is not fully wound up.
There doesn't appear to be such a danger among today's opposition although the Ladbroke winner Archive Footage and the very decent duel-operator Golden Rule are very decent horses. Nevertheless, the Istabraq winning streak looks set to recommence.
JP McManus's colours can also visit the winners enclosure half an hour earlier in the shape of Shannon Gale who can do the Swiss-based financier a Christmas good turn for the second year running.
Injury plagued in the past, a win at Tipperary in October and it's worth betting he is a good bit better than a distant fifth to Alexander Banquet in the Drinmore. Shannon Gale is selected to reverse form with Montana Glen and also take care of the former Triumph Hurdle winner Commanche Court.
A very interesting runner in the two and a half mile maiden hurdle is Canon Can, a former Doncaster Cup and Royal Ascot winner when trained on the flat by Henry Cecil, who makes his first start over flights against some horses with previous decent placed form.
Canon Can is the unknown quantity of the race, especially on winter ground, and in the circumstances maybe Knockalassa will prove a safer option after his reasonable third to No Discount at Punchestown.
Tony Martin could have a very good day. Fandango de Chassy is 4 lb better off with its Clonmel conqueror Ballyquin but the extra half mile of the handicap chase should be in favour also. However, there is likely to be real confidence in the chance of Magua in the two mile handicap hurdle.
The Dundalk bumper winner ran second on the flat to The Bongo Man before falling two out when travelling noticeably well in the competitive Cheltenham hurdle won by Experimental at the Murphys meeting. Off 10.10 he looks well treated here and should be very hard to beat.
The last is a very competitive bumper but although he hasn't run since February, Aonfocaleile's seven-length second to Biliverdin at Punchestown reads very well and Philip Fenton's mount is taken to beat the Navan winner Park Leader.
