DAY FOUR PREVIEWS:PRECEDENT might mean everything in law but it's relevance to today's Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup can be blown out of the water if Kauto Star can regain the blue riband crown he lost to his stable companion Denman last year.
Since then Denman has run only once, and performed a passable impression of a drain into the bargain. In fact, on the back of a fibrillating heart problem earlier in the season the title-holder has looked every inch a horse broken by the demands of winning last year.
The irony is the horse he beat in a hugely-hyped showdown in 2008 has come back apparently as good as ever, winning a third King George, and coming here in the form of his life, according to their trainer.
On form, Kauto Star has the clear winning of this. He’s a proven Gold Cup winner from 2007 and in terms of pure quality he looks to be in a different league. There is even a rising tide of opinion that he was not at his best last year having run at Ascot between the King George and Gold Cup. He also jumped poorly 12 months ago and it was only pure courage that got him to within seven lengths of Denman at the end.
So what one might reasonably ask is the problem? Well that’s where precedent comes in. There will be plenty opposing Kauto Star today, based purely on the fact that no horse has ever managed to regain the Gold Cup crown. Legendary names such as Captain Christy, Desert Orchid and Silver Buck have tried it and failed – so there.
It’s a curious argument that logically would have had Messrs Hillary and Tenzing staring up at Everest in 1953 and deciding not to bother because no one had ever climbed it before.
Not that the main focus will be on Kauto Star in the build-up to the festival centrepiece. Queen Elizabeth will attend Gold Cup day for the not insignificant reason that her runner, Barbers Shop, has a chance of winning.
The run of form that Nicky Henderson has enjoyed this season, and this week, makes Barbers Shop an intriguing contender anyway but the real interest is in how this seven-year-old will perform now that he is put up to three and a quarter miles for the first time.
For the first time in 17 years there will be no Irish-trained runner in the Gold Cup, although half the jockeys riding in the 16-strong field are from Ireland.
Star de Mohaison, one of five Paul Nicholls-trained runners, theoretically at least gives the champion trainer the chance to emulate Michael Dickinson’s famous-five in 1983.
Tony McCoy will be on the 2007 runner-up Exotic Dancer, who finally broke his Grade One duck at Leopardstown over Christmas by landing the Lexus Chase. He is back for another crack at the race but his career up to now has largely consisted of having rear-end views of Kauto Star.
In fact twist today’s race into any shape you like and it’s impossible to escape the conclusion that Kauto Star remains the most likely winner, no matter what kind of statistical hoodoo or jinx is in place.
And never forget ninety nine point nine per cent of statistics are irrelevant – even on Friday 13th.
Gold Cup
Brian O’Connor’s tips
1Kauto Star9, 11-10
R Walsh (7/4)
2Exotic Dancer9, 11-10
AP McCoy (8/1)
3 Barbers Shop7, 11-10
BJ Geraghty (10/1)
Heart is with Brady but head is with Mourad
IN WHAT has proved to be an unexpected beano of a week for Irish trained horses, only the most po-faced curmudgeon could pooh-pooh the idea of the incomparable Oliver Brady securing a much-coveted Cheltenham festival victory with Ebadiyan in today’s JCB Triumph Hurdle.
The Co Monaghan trainer has revelled to such an extent in the past over placed horses here that the impact of his reaction to success on the somewhat strait-laced Cheltenham authorities would be worth travelling a long way to see.
Certainly Queen Elizabeth will find herself pushed off centre-stage as Brady’s winner’s enclosure performances have been honed over the years to a perfect pitch of ribald good humour that Irish fans, at least, view with indulgent relish.
In ante-post betting terms, Ebadiyan heads a six-strong Irish challenge into the four-year-old championship event and Brady insists the Aga Khan bred grey is by far his best chance of a victory here.
Behind the public facade, the 69-year-old businessman, whose well-publicised six-year battle with cancer, as well as a quadruple heart by-pass, makes him a much admired as well as liked figure, has an enviable record of getting horses to run above themselves here.
Gazalani managed to finish fifth in a Triumph Hurdle, while Balapour was just a neck off a County Hurdle success.
If sentiment is worth anything, it will be worth a few lengths to Ebadiyan today. However, sentiment only goes so far and there could be better value in siding with another Irish hope, Mourad.
The Willie Mullins-trained horse, another ex-Aga Khan horse, is one of the most inexperienced in the race and has ground to make up on both Ebadiyan and Jumbo Rio from Leopardstown last month.
However, Mourad was in the lead from the second last that day and also made a mistake at the last which didn’t help him. Improvement can be expected on better ground and Mullins, who also runs Art Sleuth, knows what it takes to win a Triumph with Scolardy victorious seven years ago.
Zaynar and Walkon of the home team have intertwined form but Zaynar’s jumping left a lot to be desired at Ascot last time, while Alan King’s young hurdlers have been hitting the bar rather than the back of the net this week.
The day’s other Grade One event, the Albert Bartlett Hurdle over three miles, also has six Irish runners and with the ground drying out all the time there will be worse value bets this afternoon than Browns Baily.
His bare form may not be the most eye-catching in this race, with a pair of wins at Thurles the highlight, but the brother to Aran Concerto is expected to improve significantly for better going.
If there is one thing guaranteed with 28 runners for the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle it is a breakneck pace right from the start and that will be music to Joanna Morgan’s ears.
The Co Meath trainer has a very decent horse in Raise Your Heart, whose raw ability has been compromised significantly throughout his career by a refusal to settle. If he can pull in his usual fashion off a County Hurdle pace then he will be something freakish but more likely is Davy Condon will be able to ride a patient race without Raise Your Heart using up undue energy. This is a race that rewards such tactics usually.
Cappa Bleu is being touted as the next great hope out of the English point to point scene and is worth checking in the Foxhunters.
Big Eared Fran is one of eight David Pipe-trained runners in the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle named after his father, Martin. Big Eared Fran won comfortably at Sandown just six days ago and his jockey, Johnny Farrelly, will be able to navigate his way around here better than most.
The Grand Annual is the new festival finale and the last two winners, Tiger Cry and Andreas, are back for more. There could be each way value in Clew Bay Cove who should be running on well off a hard pace under Tony McCoy.
