ALL-IRELAND SFC SEMI-FINAL CORK v KERRY:I SENSE a dangerous air of overconfidence down in Kerry this week. The general impression seems to be that we will dismantle Cork in Croke Park with some ease. That could easily seep into the players' psyches if everywhere they go they're hearing how easy it will be.

This would be the fifth time in succession that Cork are beaten by Kerry in the All-Ireland series, but I can't see anything other than this contest going right to the wire.

A certain number of factors have made Cork a better outfit this year. It starts with the new management team led by Conor Counihan, who brings a calmer presence to the regime and also rules out any question of favouritism to city players.

This may have contributed to an unhappy camp in the past, but two of Nemo Rangers' leading players, Derek Kavanagh and James Masters, have struggled to earn starting spots for tomorrow. Before this season they were certainties, but Counihan has ensured every single player is in the team on merit.

Another big factor for Cork is the gradual filtering in of the next generation, who crucially are not intimidated by the sight of the green-and-gold jersey.

The likes of Brian O'Regan, Daniel Goulding, John Hayes, Michael Shields and Fintan Goold were part of the last four Munster under-21 titles when Kerry were more often then not dismissed along the way. They have no fear of facing Kerry, be it in Croke Park or elsewhere.

Add in the fact that I've never seen a stronger Cork bench and it all augurs well for them to finally break the supposed hex they find themselves under. Shields, Goold and Noel O'Leary can all come in and make a significant impact, while an appearance from even one of the two lame players, Graham Canty or Nicholas Murphy, would make a huge difference in the last 20 minutes.

Canty, in particular, arriving into the midfield battle might just break Kerry. The loss of Murphy, quality player that he is, is not as bad considering his track record against Darragh Ó Sé. This was most recently illustrated by the dominance of Darragh during last year's All-Ireland final.

In the Munster final, the persistence of Pearse O'Neill posed Darragh far more problems especially in the physical challenges. That Cork could wrestle the possession around the middle to their favour proved key to capturing the Munster title.

There is a huge onus on the Cork midfield to put Darragh and Séamus Scanlon under immediate and constant pressure. Neither player is playing at his peak yet, so Cork must home in on this perceived flaw.

They just edge the motivational stakes, the return to Dublin reopening the wounds inflicted in last September's meeting.

They conceded two silly, even freakish, goals that day and I can't see that recurring.

They will also learn from the folly of leaving Colm Cooper and Kieran Donaghy in man-on-man situations where they had acres of space to run into and inflict damage. This will surely be addressed with some form of cover.

Then there is the presence of Tommy Walsh to be considered. The young forward has proved a revelation alongside Donaghy in the All-Ireland series and adds an extra dimension, unburdening the pressure of all around him. But neither he nor Donaghy - or the Gooch for that matter - is the main cog in this Kerry attack.

After the Galway match Declan O'Sullivan looks to be back to his magnificent best and provided a reminder of what Kerry lacked in the last meeting of these teams. He needs to be closely covered - otherwise he is capable of dictating the whole contest.

Like Brian Dooher, if provided the scope, O'Sullivan can dominate the ebb and flow of a match.

If they constantly close him down, while attending to the aforementioned three, then Cork have a chance. That is if Bryan Sheehan or Donnacha Walsh does not come to life. Nobody said it was going to be easy.

One more obvious plus for Cork was the performance of Michael Cussen in the second half of the Munster final.

His presence, like that of Donaghy and Walsh down the other end, allows the others to be more direct in their play. He will also bring the clinical corner forwards Hayes and Goulding into play.

Again, it comes back to dominating the breaking ball but if Masters takes control of deliveries into Cussen - as Pádraic Joyce did to Joe Bergin in the quarter-final - the Cork inside forwards will do damage.

Masters's new lease of life out the field means he is no longer under the watchful eye of Marc Ó Sé, who more often than not has got the better of him.

There is a tradition in Kerry that every defender is expected to beat his man. No one will bail him out. The Kerry full-back line must improve immeasurably from the Galway performance. With Daniel Bohane injured, Tommy Griffin is Plan B at fullback.

The solution may be found at half back, where the marauding Tomás Ó Sé and Killian Young must curb their attacking instincts to ensure Cork don't cause damage on the break. Then there is the probability that Aidan O'Mahony will follow Masters, who tends to drift wide, leaving gaps down the middle.

It bodes well for Cork, but continued faults in the system edge the advantage back Kerry's way. They come in better-prepared after serious examinations by Monaghan and Galway, especially in comparison to Cork's win over Kildare.

They had it won after 20 minutes but looked extremely shaky in defence throughout the second half. It can't have helped their confidence either.

The scenario I see developing is a close-run affair entering the last quarter, with the arrival of Darren O'Sullivan or Eoin Brosnan making a crucial difference. It is hard to go against a team with an innate ability to score goals when they are most needed.

Unless Canty arrives with a late piece of heroism, I see Kerry scraping home.