ON RUGBY:LIES, DAMNED lies and statistics. The records show Declan Kidney has presided over five defeats in a row, but that's like Joe Schmidt starting his Leinster reign with four defeats in a row when taking into account two pre-season friendlies. Who can remember those results now, or even the opposition?
Similarly, four of those five Irish defeats have been by one score, and two of them – a decidedly experimental line-up against the Barbarians and away to the Maoris – weren’t even Test matches.
Of them all, the 23-20 defeat to Scotland in the farewell to Croke Park was the most avoidable.
Ireland’s slightly wild approach that day undoubtedly signalled that the more territorial and percentage-based game which yielded the Grand Slam in 2009 could not be replicated, and certainly not at next year’s World Cup in the light the Southern Hemisphere-styled refereeing diktats. There was also no Slam at stake, or even a Six Nations title. Which is not to say Ireland took the Scots lightly, just that they saw that day as an opportunity to broaden their game.
The idea was to continue that ball-in-hand, counter-attacking game on the summer tour, though by the time Ireland employed it against the All Blacks with four tries their goose had already been well cooked.
Of the three Test defeats in a row, the record, nine-try 66-28 embarrassment in New Plymouth was the most lamentable. Although they were in effect playing the game with the equivalent of eight-and-a-half yellow cards, Ireland seemed utterly unprepared for the quick taps, quick throws and all-round tempo the All Blacks aspired to play to. The 22-15 defeat to Australia – especially bearing in mind there were 14 or 15 players injured – was arguably above par.
As the autumn Test window marks the last War of the Worlds before the rugby world comes together again in New Zealand, it would be encouraging if the European teams could improve upon their November record against the Tri Nations of two years ago (one win, 10 defeats) and last year (three wins, a draw and seven defeats).
It’s instructive to compare Ireland with where they were four years ago. Then, as now, they’d come off the back of a three-match tour comprising two defeats in New Zealand and one in Australia, but back-to-back wins at home to experimental and under-strength South African and Australian teams had us all a little too giddy.
Over the course of the 2005-06 season, Eddie O’Sullivan started only 26 players in 11 Tests. By contrast, Kidney used 41 players in 10 Tests last season, starting 35 players – or 42, if one includes those “defeats” to the Barbarians and the Maoris.
In the ’06 summer tour, O’Sullivan had started only 16 players in three back-to-back Tests against the All Blacks and Australia, and of the starting XV for the last game, 12 would pitch up over a year later for the World Cup opener against Namibia. One would venture that the Ireland team will continue to be more fluid over the next year.
Virtually all of the golden generation were in their mid to late 20s and with half a century of caps or more to their names. Now, whether through the ravages of time or the modern game, a worrying trend of injuries has emerged where before there was rude health. This, we are adamantly informed, is just due to circumstances: one of those cyclical things only aggravated by the increased number of collisions in the modern game.
Uncertain times, made all the more unnerving by the state of the nation and the knowledge that even rugby cannot avoid the economic fall-out, at a time when the front-liners are looking to negotiate new contracts for the post-World Cup world – understandably, notions of retirement may be put on hold where possible.
Furthermore, Minister for Communications Eamonn Ryan seems hell-bent on seriously handicapping the IRFU for the next round of television deals for both the Six Nations and the Heineken Cup.
To compound all this, there has been the IRFU’s ticket pricing fiasco, which has saddled the clubs and the provincial branches with potentially significant shortfalls in both money and tickets sold, and perhaps facing punitive punishments by a governing body which was responsible for the prohibitive pricing in the first place.
Yet through it all, despite recent results, one thing offers hope, namely the presence of Kidney and his coaching ticket, and a group of high-achieving elite athletes.
By contrast, an injury-affected South Africa make a delayed arrival at the end of their season, their preparations further unhinged by the Currie Cup final last Saturday.
The feeling that this Saturday (another official “first” for the Palindrome) offers Ireland something of a one-off shot at redemption, and a chance to end that losing streak, is heightened by the appointment of Nigel Owens as referee. This game falls just before the official IRB Test window, and next Monday the board’s referees’ manager, Paddy O’Brien of New Zealand, will bring all the referees together to re-enforce the need to apply the law amendments with regard to the tackle and the offside line.
Hence, the onus and opportunity is there to pack the side with the new breed of dynamic, ball-carrying forwards who are flourishing. Until recently, back-up at tighthead and openside looked like problem areas, but the emergence of Tony Buckley on the summer tour and of Mike Ross and Seán O’Brien since then offers real options – though one ventures that rumours of David Wallace’s demise will prove premature.
Aside from Buckley and O’Brien, Seán Cronin also gives an interesting new option, at the very least off the bench.
Also, with quick ruck ball now the key, there hasn’t been such a compelling argument since he began falling out of favour at the ’07 World Cup to have the in-form Peter Stringer in the mix, while it’s still incredible to think the management may have to pick one from Luke Fitzgerald, Keith Earls and Andrew Trimble.
IRELAND (Possible v South Africa):Kearney; Bowe, O'Driscoll, D'Arcy, Fitzgerald; Sexton, Reddan; Healy, Best, Buckley, O'Callaghan, O'Driscoll, Ferris, O'Brien, Heaslip. Replacements: Cronin, Court, Toner, Leamy, Stringer, O'Gara, Earls.
