If two well-worn truisms of replays are observed in this afternoon's Bank of Ireland Leinster final, Kildare should pick up their second provincial title in three years.

They are the team with more room for improvement. Judged by their performances against Offaly, Mick O'Dwyer's team were a bit flat and subdued in certain positions. Dublin for their part gave the county's best championship performance since winning the All-Ireland five years ago.

If Kildare have more room for improvement, the principle that victory is more likely to go to the team which learns more from the draw isn't much comfort for Dublin either. Two things stood between them and winning: the injury to Ian Robertson and the lack of a reliable free-taker. Robertson won't be back, his injury is long term and a vacancy has been left at full forward.

More perplexingly, Tom Carr hasn't moved to fill the gap in dead-ball expertise. That's not to say the issue hasn't preoccupied him but he has decided against bringing in a free-taker. His decision can be defended from a couple of perspectives.

For a start, Kildare are tricky opponents for any team thinking of carrying a free-taker as a passenger. Their defence is mobile and aggressive in moving the ball from deep. Any reluctant tacklers in the opposition's attack would be liabilities. Declan Darcy is the obvious choice as a place-kicker but his rehabilitation following injury has been slow and unless his fitness has improved startlingly since his run-outs earlier in the week, he's unlikely to be risked.

Then there is the erratic nature of free-taking outside the realms of the top practitioners. In the 1992 NFL semi-final against Tyrone, then Dublin manager Paddy Cullen took off Charlie Redmond, and Paul Clarke missed a free which would have tied the match. There was uproar.

A year later, Redmond was suspended for the NFL final replay against Donegal. Clarke stepped into the breach and this time kicked frees from all over the pitch. Carr points out that Jim Gavin has had a serviceable record kicking frees in recent years but that he went on the blink two weeks ago.

Yet word from the camp is that Jason Sherlock and Vinnie Murphy have been practising frees this week so there is the possibility of two new kickers trying their luck this afternoon. Although it is unlikely that this reaction to the problem indicates that Dublin are refusing to learn from the draw, it does suggest that forward reserves are desperately shallow.

With Robertson and Darcy unfit, it is expected that Murphy will step into the full forward position despite evidence from the last day that his instincts prevent him from being a constructive target man. He can win ball and he can kick but his vision and distribution are no better than they ever were.

Gavin and Senan Connell had poor afternoons on the wings despite their willingness and, had Carr any reserve options, it would surely have meant changes on either flank. It is hard to see Dublin's attack registering a great improvement, especially considering that Sherlock played so well and Colin Moran succeeded in disorienting Brian Lacey by playing deep. Elsewhere, Kildare have a really impressive defence. The half-back line has been the best in the championship despite Ryan's travails on Sherlock and Moran's deep-lying influence when switched. Ronan Quinn will happily beat ball away from Murphy and Ken Doyle is an exceptionally tight marker in the right corner.

Kildare players had off-days in the drawn match as well. Willie McCreery and Dermot Earley both have had happier outings whereas Martin Lynch didn't look fully fit and Glen Ryan got burned by Sherlock. The difference between these malfunctions and Dublin's is that Kildare have already demonstrated an ability to raise their game in a major replay whereas Dublin's form the last day was a surprise.

Ciaran Whelan will have benefited from the drawn match because he was a bit rusty, but to maintain their edge, Dublin will need Brian Stynes to be as dominant and busy as he was two weeks ago.

At the back, as in attack, there are concerns for Dublin. Never comfortable in the corners despite an improved display from Shane Ryan, they will again be under pressure from Tadhg Fennin and Padraig Brennan. If Kildare stop dropping ball on top of Paddy Christie's infallible hands, the security of the full-back line will be threatened even more.

Jon McGee and Peadar Andrews had their best championship matches last time out. Both are capable of maintaining those performances but any slippage and the balance tilts again.

Kildare no longer have any reason to be queasy about playing Dublin. They have been operating at a higher level than their opponents for the past couple of years. For all their difficulties scoring, they did create two clear-cut goal chances and will again be more likely to carve out better opportunities.

There is unlikely to be very much between the teams at the end, but Kildare look the superior unit and that proven consistency looks a safer bet than the sum of Dublin's individual parts.