NO HOLLYWOOD scriptwriter would to submit the highly improbable scenario that makes today's shoot-out at Cardiff Arms Park one of the most riveting and unpredictable Five Nations occasions for many years. Two of Britain's greatest players, Jonathan Davies and Will Carling, are set to make their last international appearance, and a third Rob Andrew, who officially retired 21 months ago, is poised to come off the England bench and swing his golden boot once again.
As if that unlikely configuration of ageing stars were not enough, this Triple Crown decider could also be Jack Rowell's last game as England coach, a post he has held for nearly three years without undertaking an agreed, long-term commitment. It must also be open to doubt whether the injured Wales absentee Ieuan Evans, who is 33 next week, will resume his record-breaking international career next season.
Indeed, a disruptive series of injuries has cast a long shadow over the final game to be staged at the Arms Park before the stadium is pulled down and rebuilt for the 1999 World Cup. At the 11th hour there are lingering doubts about the fitness of England's Lawrence Dallaglio, who has a heavy cold: his Wasps' club mate, Chris Sheasby, has been drafted into the squad and Ben Clarke will take over the blind side position should Dallaglio fail to recover.
This week's high-profile roll call of withdrawals on both sides makes the BBC's Casuahy look like a gentle jaunt through the medical room. England had already given Mike Catt the go-ahead to replace the injured Paul Grayson by the time it dawned on Wales that Scott Gibbs and Evans would have to join Colin Charvis, Mark Rowley and Arwel Thomas among the non-starters. It is hardly an exaggeration to suggest that England, who have greater strength in depth, now face a Wales A line-up.
Amid the intensive hype over the old men, Davies, Andrew and Carling, who together muster 100 years, the fact that both sides have promoted a bold youth policy at Test level this season is easily overlooked. Sod's Law will almost certainly dictate that younger men such as England's Austin Healey, Catt and Tim Stimpson, and the Welsh trio, Rob Howley, Neil Jenkins and Scott Quinnell, will exercise a much greater influence on the outcome than the bunch of thirtysomethings.
Clearly there is massive pressure on both sets of half-backs to create the kind of movement and continuity that will enable their strike runners to flourish. Rowell has insisted England will not withdraw into a protective shell of percentage rugby after their recent defeat by France. Kevin Bowring, the Welsh coach, has courageously persevered with the strategy that aims to expand the game under pressure, despite setbacks against Ireland and France - not to mention Australia and South Africa.
The England coach has been castigated for putting Andrew on the bench as a substitute goal kicker, yet the more significant selection is his choice of the 23-year-old Leicester scrum-half Healey to form a fresh partnership with Catt. If Healey, who made a startling, eight-minute appearance against Ireland as a substitute, can reproduce the pace, inventiveness and support work he shows every week for his club, England may at last put together the sustained, 80-minute performance that has been lacking all season.
"We have to keep playing in the style that took us into a 20-6 lead in the France game, even though we lost," said Phil de Glanville, the England captain yesterday. "On the day we weren't tough enough mentally to hammer in the nails and we stopped playing in the last 20 minutes. But we would be delighted to get into the same position again in the Wales match. We will aim to play for more of the game and better than we did two weeks ago."
De Glanville acknowledged that Jenkins, Howley and the Quinnell were the key players likely to cause England most concern. The England skipper diplomatically avoided comment on the 34-year-old Davies, possibly because the Welsh outside-half (like Andrew), no longer has the blistering pace over 15-20 metres needed to unhinge an international defence. It is felt that Davies will have to unload the ball rapidly or step up his tactical kick.
"Our discipline will have to be good, though, because Jenkins is a phenomenal goal kicker who can give Wales a virtually guaranteed three points from anywhere over half-way each time we give away a penalty," said de Glanville.
"If we give Howley any space he will use his electric pace to get into areas that can cause us real damage. Obviously we regard Quinnell very highly because of his power and experience."
England's lineout specialists, Martin Johnson, Simon Shaw and Tim Rodber, will also have to think and perform flexibly to counter the variations Gareth Llewellyn and Mike Voyle are likely to use to second guess them. Nevertheless, it is difficult to see England's back row unit, in which the open side Richard Hill has become a formidable catalyst, being outgunned in terms of pace, power, and streetwise response.
Once suspects that Wales - who also have the 32-year-old Nigel Davies at centre - will discover the hard way that professional rugby at this level is no place for proud veterans who want an enjoyable swan song. England's young Turks should have an afternoon to cherish - and clinch the Triple Crown.
