Will Dublin’s failure to make the league semi-finals give them time to work on their upgrade? Or is it a sign that they’re flatlining? Summer will tell all.

THE FALL-OUT from the last day of the league only makes full sense in retrospect but most counties have a vague idea of what they want from the spring campaign.

For some it is simply about an end result; securing promotion or avoiding relegation. Others start out with one ambition and achieve – or fail to achieve – the other. For some it is all about process, finding players or a style of play but generally if those players or styles are to be deemed a success there’s something to show for them at the end of the regulation matches.

Whatever is achieved in the league only counts as a success if it in some way enhances the championship potential of a team. (There was once a manager, who after a nasty and unexpected defeat in the days of the old, pre-qualifier summers opined that to him the league was more important but, with the guffaws in all likelihood still ringing in his head, he’d probably prefer his identity to be withheld even at this late remove.)

Momentum comes from the summer.

A good league is well buried by a disastrous championship and vice versa but morale as depressed as it is in, for instance, Meath isn’t the best launch-pad for redemptive performances later in the year.

The connection between league and championship has been cast-iron since the twin advent of qualifiers and the calendar-year league format. Dr Niall Moyna of DCU is involved with Dublin and has experience of the intercounty scene since the 1980s.

He makes the point that the performance rhythms necessary for playing regular matches, as required in football since 2001, are significantly different to those needed when the league was a lengthy, discursive ramble from mid-autumn to late spring and the championship could be reduced to a small series of elemental collisions spread over four months.

In hitting those rhythms, counties have in the 11 years since these radical changes managed to win the NFL/All-Ireland double on five occasions with two other counties reaching the league final before going on to lift Sam Maguire in the autumn.

It makes you wonder how Dublin manager Pat Gilroy assesses the league campaign, which has just concluded for his team. For all of the desire to trial new players and retool the machine after winning a long-awaited All-Ireland, it’s doubtful if the Dublin management thought that this necessary reconstruction was incompatible with qualifying for the most accessible play-offs in years – four teams, or half of the division, progressing to next Sunday’s Division One semi-finals.

After Sunday’s defeat by Cork ended any hopes of extending their league season, Gilroy was in the unusual position of presenting the media with the silver lining rather than drawing their attention to the cloud.

There have been positives. The attack was mostly missing the Brogan brothers, footballers of the year in the past two seasons, and Eoghan O’Gara, his form trembling on the precipice of vindicating the higher hopes that have always attended an injury-disrupted career, got injured again halfway through the campaign.

Yet Dublin ended up as the top scorers – and top goal scorers – in Division One. Craig Dias and Johnny Cooper have shown great promise in defence and have strengthened the panel considerably. But, but, but . . .

During the two seasons that culminated in last September’s All-Ireland, Gilroy went for broke. Having realised that he needed a complete refit after the Kerry humiliation in 2009, he introduced new players and a new system of play designed to pressurise the opposition in possession, achieve turnovers and counterattack quickly.

There was also an emphasis on being hard to beat. In 2010 the county had away wins in Kerry (the first for 28 years) and in Tyrone (when the home team needed the result to avoid relegation).

In the past two seasons, just two regulation matches were lost; in the past 10 weeks the team have lost four times.

Only Kerry in the past 20 years have retained the All-Ireland but the counties that have dominated the rankings in recent years have taken league advancement seriously. Cork have qualified for the fourth successive year for play-off matches whereas Kerry have done so for the third time in five seasons.

These statistics are all the more impressive when taken in the context of the league structures from 2007-11 when, unlike this year’s open-door policy, only the top two teams qualified.

I remember Kerry manager Jack O’Connor’s apprehension in 2005 when after a final-day shoot-out, his team beat Tyrone by one point fewer than was necessary to progress to the semi-finals. He said he had hoped to replicate the team’s preparations of the previous year when they achieved the double. Instead Tyrone beat them to the play-offs and subsequently defeated them in the All-Ireland final.

This year, O’Connor has blooded a fair few younger players and still managed to top the division. You’d imagine a couple of extra matches wouldn’t have hindered Gilroy. The big concern for Dublin is the extent to which they can lift themselves for a further year in All-Ireland contention. Last year’s win was a cumulative effort over two years. Achieving at that level has a draining effect.

After each of the defeats sustained in the league, Gilroy expressed concern about the lack of intensity, the quality of being able to sustain concentration and effort throughout matches.

The correlation statistics between league and championship aren’t just the product of the new structures since 2001. Looking back 25 years, on only four occasions has the All-Ireland gone to a county that hasn’t reached league play-offs.

From a more positive perspective for Dublin, two of those exceptions are directly relevant. Four years ago Kerry, as All-Ireland champions, failed to qualify for the league play-offs but the following September went on to become the first county in 17 years to retain their title.

In 1995, having reached the nine previous years’ play-offs and lost two All-Ireland finals and one semi-final in successive years, Dublin got relegated but six months later finally got their hands the Sam Maguire.

Niall Moyna said this week that champions need something different if they’re to stay ahead. “Every team looks for your weakest point and goes after it so we have to ask, ‘what’s the next step for us?’”  Does the early league exit give Dublin time to work on sharpening up and ironing out their upgrade? Or is it a sign that they’re flat lining?