Rugby Lions Tour The point of no return for the Lions. No more wet weather, busted-flush game plans. In the red corner a remodelled team, in part born out of desperation. In the black corner a confident, winning, settled team.

The All Blacks' standing has taken a minor pummelling as well but they're still the home team and the events of the past week will probably make them an even more tightly-knit group.

Has it done so for the Lions? The success or otherwise of this tour, with a whole host of other issues, rests on the outcome of this match. If they haven't rallied under the ebullient captaincy of Gareth Thomas, it would suggest the tour has gone off the rails.

Thomas himself has the additional responsibility of re-adapting to an old role by inheriting Brian O'Driscoll's place, and going eye-to-eye with Tana Umaga. Eddie O'Sullivan spoke yesterday of "a more traditional midfield", adding "I think it's a good place for him this week in the front line of the attack".

The Lions' desperate need to get over the gain line, of course, hinges on the lineout. A disaster zone last week, there have been recriminations over it, with Graham Rowntree revealing in his penned column that the decision to change the lineout calls was based on a belief that the All Blacks had decoded them, and was a mistake, while in his column, Paul O'Connell admitted he was unhappy with them.

"We worked on the clarity just, to speed up the tempo," said forwards coach Andy Robinson yesterday. "Well we'd given a lot of calls away during the series (tour).

"Everybody has conspiracy theories about lineouts and codes. We thought it was right to change it going into the game. The system is fine, and the guys were focused. We missed a couple of lineouts through lack of communication and a couple of missed throws - those are the areas we've worked on."

In theory the lineout shouldn't be the shambles it was last Saturday, but the selection of Steve Thompson indicates that Robinson will again be employing the English lineout system, despite there being three Irish jumpers.

England's system prefers the line to join late and throw the ball in quickly, whereas Ireland's is based on waiting to locate where the opposition mightn't be set up. You couldn't imagine it will implode to the same extent again, but it will be interesting to see how it operates.

You'd also expect there to be a bit more desire and hunger in the team. Clive Woodward has dipped deeper into the buoyant Welsh well, and certainly under the leadership of Thomas the likes of Ryan Jones, Gavin Henson and Shane Williams look equipped to give the Lions a bit more youthful irreverence toward the All Blacks. Ditto Donncha O'Callaghan. That's what they've shown all tour.

The Lions also appear more inclined to have a go rather than rely on last week's failed Anglo World Cup-winning template. Yet, aside from Thompson, Woodward has still played a few loyalty cards, uppermost among these being Jonny Wilkinson and Jason Robinson, scorers of all England's points in the World Cup final.

But Wilkinson has only just put together a run of four games in the last eight weeks and looks in need of a good six or so more to be back to his brilliant best. Braveness personified, Wilkinson has also worked hard on his footwork but the steps to fix a defence tend merely to slow down the distribution and he's not spiralling the ball beyond the wingers. His selection is a bit of an insult to Stephen Jones, Ronan O'Gara and Charlie Hodgson.

Robinson, a shadow of the player who set England alight in the World Cup, looks a case of even blinder loyalty.

Geordan Murphy has been treated poorly. Robinson and Williams are cut from the same cloth, elusive little runners who are capable of beating men but are very much go-it-alone soloists who tend to move the ball on when they've finished with it, and often engraved with a red cross.

Murphy may not be the world's most physical outside back, but then neither are Robinson or Williams. What's more, Murphy's trailers, support runs, inestimably better hands and vision, superior finishing to Robinson and his greater range of kicking would have given the outside three a broader dimension.

These decisions may well backfire. That's the way it is when you move into the rarified domain of a Lions' tour against the All Blacks. Weaknesses are more readily exposed. And what about the All Blacks? Even with four changes - tighthead prop Carl Hayman failed a fitness test yesterday and is replaced by Greg Somerville - they are playing settled, proven combinations, with individuals all in their natural positions. Sounds simple really.

The pack's confidence will be sky high and, while the tight five will do well to dominate to such an extent again, there might well be more from their backrow.

Furthermore, Byron Kelleher might quicken the service, while Mils Muliaina and Rico Gear could well quicken the pulse. With Ma'a Nonu back on the bench to lend his gamebreaking abilities when required, they actually look a more potent mix. And the weather is set fair.

The Lions did win the second Test here to level the series 12 years ago, but then they were robbed more than routed in the first Test. The start will be crucial. After losing Lawrence Dallaglio early in the first match, and Brian O'Driscoll in the first minute of the first Test, the Lions are due a bit of luck earlly on.

A safely negotiated first lineout would help, as would a barnstorming run or hit by, say, Ryan Jones early on, and if they obtain the first score and their confidence rises, O'Driscoll's forecast that this will be a one-score game would be feasible. But if the All Blacks score the first try and get ahead early, then it would be just as plausible to see the cracks appear, the confidence ebb and the All Blacks become more ambitious and more lethal.

Then we won't be citing the weather as a reason the Lions didn't receive a spanking. It will just happen, slowly, painfully, in front of our very eyes.

That would make it a long night, with a long week to follow.

Head-to-head: Played 36, New Zealand 27 wins, 3 draws, Lions 6 wins.

Head-to-head in Wellington: Played 10, New Zealand 7 wins, 1 Draw, Lions 2 wins.

Biggest victory margins and most points scored: New Zealand - 38-6, Auckland 1983. Lions 20-7, Wellington 1993.

Most tries scored: New Zealand - 9 (29-0, Auckland, 1908). Lions - 4 (17-18, Dunedin 1959).

Most points scored by individuals: New Zealand - 18 (Don Clarke 1959 and Allan Hewson 1983). Lions -18 (Gavin Hastings 1993).

Most tries scored by individuals: New Zealand - 3 (Frank Mitchinson 1908, Stu Wilson 1983). Lions - 2 (Carl Aarvold 1930, Malcolm Price 1959, Gerald Davies 1971.

Odds (Paddy Powers): New Zealand 1/9, 25/1 Draw, Lions 5/1. Handicap odds (Lions + 15 pts) 10/11 New Zealand, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Lions. Forecast: All Blacks to win.