The 129th running of the Compaq Galway Plate presents as fascinating and infuriating a contest as any of its predecessors. Only the very brave or foolish would dismiss the chance of any of the 22 runners outright but it looks worth betting that Lucky Town will justify likely favouritism.
Likely because this Plate doesn't encourage certitude, especially about a horse who has a reasonable chance, and just that, on the book. Indeed, the form-book says that if Lucky Town is at the business end of the race, Corket will be alongside keeping him company.
Corket would be a wonderful boost to the burgeoning career of 25-year-old Frances Crowley and he indicated a comeback to his best when running in an ultra-significant race at Killarney earlier this month.
Corket got within two and a half lengths of Mr Baxter Basics while Lucky Town was another six lengths back in third. Throw in the fact that Corket is now a whopping 15lb better off and selecting Lucky Town smacks of masochism. However, it shouldn't be that simple.
For one thing, Corket has been an in and out performer recently and hasn't actually won since February of last year, 13 races ago. And a significant other is that he doesn't look to have the scope for improvement of Lucky Town.
In the circumstances Lucky Town, owned by JP McManus's wife Noreeen, ran an encouraging race at Killarney. Significant improvement was predicted immediately afterwards and recent reports of his homework at Enda Bolger's yard seem to confirm that. Lucky Town is also a hardy customer who will be able to cope with the forecast rain softened ground and he will be trained to the minute for what has been his long-term target.
Gales Cavalier tops the weights and a five-strong cross-channel challenge. No British-trained animal has ever won this race but Adrian Maguire, the only jockey riding in the big race that has won it before, is confident of a big effort from Gales Cavalier.
"He runs well fresh and deserves every pound of the 12st. He has beaten Viking Flagship and Mr Mulligan after all," he said yesterday before adding significantly: "I wouldn't like to see any more rain."
Among the bottom weights, horses like Tryfirion, Oakler and The Quads are expected to run big races but Lucky Town has been primed for today, again dons the blinkers that were absent for his last race and carries a degree of stable confidence. In a race as trappy as this, those look to be adequate credentials.
Although his stable jockey Michael Kinane is at Goodwood, this afternoon could be a good one for the Galway king Dermot Weld.
He runs the Warning colt Dual Star in the mile maiden and a runner-up place to Pirro on his debut indicates Dual Star can beat Star Quality. Weld's Francis Bay is expected to bounce back from a flop in the Queens Vase and go close in the amateur maiden where Aidan O'Brien introduces Rivelino who is by Caerleon out of the Oaks winner Fair Salinia.
Declan McDonogh takes 5lb off Celtic Lore's back in the 12-furlong handicap and that could prove vital while the Killarney winner Experimental can overcome a 12lb penalty in the mile handicap.
