Before the championship started the odds were against Warren Gatland lasting as Irish coach beyond the end of his contract. With last Saturday's horrendous start to the Six Nations, the odds must now be against Gatland lasting even that far.
Irish rugby could afford to joke in the past about the situation being desperate but not critical. Now, alas, the situation is both. The Lens hangover lives on, and nothing about the Twickenham debacle cured it.
At the very least, whatever about the result, a good performance was required against England, but Ireland didn't deliver on either count. In isolation, it might have been lived with (after all, it was only their ninth record defeat of some description or other in the last nine years), but coming after the World Cup let-down and two years into the coach's reign, Saturday will have sapped the patience of most Irish supporters.
One of them, a long-standing club player, member and official, told me he did something he had never done: he left 15 minutes before the final whistle. What's more, he'd wanted to leave at half-time. Like others who would have sought refuge in the escapism that is schools rugby yesterday, he has vowed not to return on Saturday week.
Those who spent a minimum of £600 per head travelling to Twickenham last weekend undoubtedly got poor value for their money and, on top of the World Cup disaster, it's entirely understandable that they should vote with their feet.
Even a first win against the Scots in 13 years won't be enough in itself to turn things around, though it looks absolutely essential now. Another defeat then and it really would be hard to see how the current regime could possibly carry on. Even if the team is already mortally wounded, that would be one scar too many. Worried IRFU officials must know this, and deep down so must Gatland too.
Frankly, it's difficult to see how the situation can be turned around. If somehow it is that will undoubtedly constitute the achievement of Gatland's coaching career. This team reached its lowest ebb on Saturday with what was the worst performance of the coach's reign.
With the possible exceptions of Brian O'Driscoll, Kieron Dawson, Malcolm O'Kelly, Mike Mullins and, at a push, David Humphreys, none of the rest played to par. Even the aforementioned had flaws in their game.
Dawson was as culpable as anyone for the early rash of penalties, and O'Kelly got himself into bad positions both defensively and offensively, and threw a couple of loose passes. Going against the grain and preconceived notions of him, I didn't think Mullins played at all badly; he took the ball up well and made his tackles.
Indeed, for Ben Cohen's first try Mullins pushed up better than anyone, whereas O'Driscoll, Keith Wood and Kevin Maggs (a good centre who simply isn't an international winger) stayed back. Ultimately, none of Saturday's team can review the video and say they played as well as they could or should have.
Several had rank bad games. Tom Tierney's slow service, hesitancy and wrong options betrayed the signs of a player low in confidence who is clearly suffering from not playing anything more than AIL rugby since the World Cup. His selection flew in the face of the Munster think tank, and it backfired on the management.
Conor O'Shea's hold on the number 15 jersey wouldn't have lasted as long as it did had there been viable alternatives. With Girvan Dempsey's injury there were none for the World Cup, and with Peter McKenna's injury, Dempsey's candidature was undermined by him not even being picked by Leinster. Even so, in hindsight, either he or Dominic Crotty (at one point this season kept out of the Munster side by a teenage converted outhalf, Jeremy Staunton) would have been better options.
O'Shea's rich vein of club form earned him one last chance. Down at the Stoop, the regulars apply the ole chant to the full back's name, but whatever his technical limitations, the poor fellow clearly undergoes a crisis in confidence when he pulls on the green of his country. You'd half expect him to be relieved when his exclusion from the team is announced.
Dion O'Cuinneagain's fall from grace from the highs of Murrayfield ("the best performance by an Irish flanker in the '90s" was a popular reaction) and optimistic World Cup captain is staggering. Confined to an exclusively defensive role on Saturday, he was, like a lot of others, largely anonymous. At Murrayfield, he got plenty of ball in open play, which is what he needs to function. Ironically, he'd probably be best suited to the Scots on Saturday week, certainly as an "impact" substitute in the last quarter. But he will probably have been dropped by then.
One could go on, but the bottom line is that the coach, and the rest of the management, have to hold their hands up at some point. This was a lousy day at the office for them. It's hard to fathom how England look so much better drilled and fresher after a more disrupted build-up.
Aside from the flawed loyalty in selections, the changed defensive system didn't work; England's width in attack caught Ireland by surprise, whereas Ireland, with the ball, lacked depth and were relatively narrow.
It's funny to read Brad Johnstone's comments after orchestrating Italy's win over Scotland. After concentrating purely on the basics, Johnstone spoke of building a house with the foundations first. Gatland used an identical approach and analogy at the outset when they nearly beat France, yet whenever he's tried to add some walls or windows, the foundations invariably crack.
At some point, Gatland has to accept responsibility for that. Yet one can't help feeling that the problems go far deeper than the identity of the national coach. The changed laws further nullify Ireland's traditionally disruptive approach. In all honesty, we probably don't have the players.
Yet the vultures are circling to observe what looks increasingly like the last rites on the current regime. Irish rugby could do with some overdue stability, and no country can benefit from going through six coaches in a decade. Sadly, with each passing game, that looks like being the case now.
