Russia v EnglandSteve McClaren has acquired the quirk lately of declaring England are in pole position. Unless second is the new first this is untrue. Croatia are actually three points clear in Group E, but the manager's statement was a reliable account of his mood before John Terry was, in effect, ruled out of today's game.
McClaren was entitled to be approaching high spirits, even if his side's rise in the standings was not quite so steep. Five victories in a row over the Euro 2008 qualifiers was a heartening run. Now, however, morale can no longer be so robust.
The likelihood has increased of Russia winning, thereby having it in their own hands to reach next summer's finals instead of England. Until Terry was struck down, McClaren had placed the emphasis elsewhere. "We've put ourselves in a position where a win will guarantee us going into the tournament next summer," he said.
Arithmetic does not seize up in the manner of a footballer's unreliable knee and the same calculation continues to apply. The real question is whether England's performance will still add up in the altered situation. Had Guus Hiddink been allowed to remove one name from the England line-up, Terry's would have been high on the list.
Before the loss of the captain, McClaren was invoking the "never-say-die spirit" of English sportsmen. It is a puzzling theme when applied to the national football team, considering this fortitude has only ever taken it to the final of a major tournament once, but there are determined individuals in the present squad. Maybe they will rise to a challenge, as they did with the goalless draws in away matches that clinched places at the 1998 World Cup and Euro 2004. While a share of the points today will not be as productive, such a result would be valuable.
With Terry gone, McClaren has to reflect on how it is to be achieved. That presumption had been Joleon Lescott was to make his full debut at left back while Shaun Wright-Phillips and Joe Cole adorned the flanks in a 4-4-2 formation. That could happen, but England will have been asking themselves last night whether it would be more realistic to get men behind the ball in a 4-3-2-1 system, possibly with Frank Lampard recalled to the starting line-up.
"If you are going to win any big game," McClaren said, "the number one priority is being able to defend. You have to defend from the front. Going away in Europe you need a clean sheet and to score a goal. That requires discipline from all 11 players. That is the outcome we want."
England have stayed on course when a key defender was ruled out in the past, drawing in Istanbul four years ago after the FA had opted not to select Rio Ferdinand because of his missed drug test. Perhaps that can happen again. This, after all, is effectively Russia's last chance and that could be made to prey on their minds."The pressure is on Russia," McClaren said. "They have to win. They have to take risks. They have to set the tempo. The first 20 minutes of any game is important. We will have to withstand that early storm . . . We are coming here to win."
Hiddink's side will be determined to make England feel the strain from the outset. They did have good passages in last month's 3-0 loss, but England should keep in mind the vulnerability of their defence as well. Hiddink may not have been beaten at home yet, but the manager has been in the post merely since the 2006 World Cup.
If England are to prevail, it will not happen simply by thinking of the rugby team's inspiring example, often as McClaren is coaxed into paying tribute to Brian Ashton's group.
The football side really requires to have its spirits raised by someone like Steven Gerrard, who has been in the doldrums. They have to demonstrate to themselves through the quality of their passing that an artificial surface is no minefield. McClaren cannot help but hold his breath as his team takes its first steps at the Luzhniki Stadium and he begins to sense which direction England's future will take.
