Paul McGinley took a one-shot lead in Hamburg yesterday knowing he faces probably the biggest career gamble of his life on Monday night when he decides whether he will go to New Jersey to play the US Open pre-qualifier.
If he continues the way he went on the Gut Kaden course, with a brilliant seven-under-par 65 leaving a clutch of star turns in the shade, McGinley will find the odds in his favour of playing two majors at least this summer. His dilemma is whether to bypass the English Open next week and the European Grand Prix the following week (both on the British Open's mini order of merit which takes five qualifiers for Birkdale not already exempt), in favour of warming up and playing in the second major's pre-qualifier.
McGinley is already well set on that mini ranking list. His 10th place last week in the Volvo PGA Championship puts him fourth-best qualifier at the moment. The question now will be whether he should sacrifice two events and think big.
Yesterday he thought birdies, seven of them. His card was unblemished and it put him one ahead of England's Peter Mitchell and two in front of a cavalry charge in third place.
Included in the log-jam on 67 were Masters champion Mark O'Meara, Colin Montgomerie, Bernhard Langer and McGinley's senior Irish partner in the Chubby Chandler stable, Darren Clarke.
Clarke had to work like blazes to save par on the last, sinking a 10-footer to keep his countenance and outlook rosy. But his 67 did nothing to cheer him as a string of chances went begging on the back nine.
By contrast, McGinley seemed to miss nothing. He fired himself with a stunning run of birdies, five of them in six holes from the third, twice holing from 25 feet and sinking a 12-footer for good measure.
To hammer home his one-stroke advantage he holed another 10-footer for birdie on the 10th, and took the tricky 17th for birdie, too, by using up only two putts.
At last his putting was in the same shape as a game which has improved steadily tee-to-green since coming back from his rib cartilage tear.
"I'm getting close to playing very well again," McGinley said. "If I don't win this week then maybe I will soon, during the summer. I'm very happy with my consistency level. It's something I've been working very hard on and I'm getting closer and closer.
"I missed out on my major exemptions this year and trying to qualify for the US Open is quite a gamble, because it could jeopardise my Open chances. If I could get exempt for Birkdale it would take a big weight off my shoulders.
"I've picked New Jersey to try to qualify because the tour players from the Westchester Classic will be playing there and that means 20 to 25 spots available from 120 starters. And that gives me my best chance. "If I want to be the player I want to be, I've got to play the top tournaments and that's why the US Open qualifying is on my agenda.
"Even if I don't win this week and my game is in good enough shape, I'll go to New Jersey. And at this stage there is more chance of me going than not."
While McGinley was delighted with his 65, Philip Walton was equally pleased with a 69 as he seems at last to have turned a corner. And the Malahide player did it with a gutsy performance, coming back from early bogeys which must have made him think lady luck had turned against him yet again.
Padraig Harrington's chipping let him down a couple of times as he, too, posted 69.
Ronan Rafferty and Raymond Burns will have to work hard today to make the projected low cut after 70s.
Eamonn Darcy with 72, and Des Smyth, 73, have a real battle on their hands to prevail.
