The meeting of Meath and Offaly in this weekend's Bank of Ireland Leinster football semi-final could be viewed as the deciding rubber of an eventful series going back two years when Meath were defending All-Ireland champions. Their shock destruction at the hands of Offaly in that August's provincial final fired imaginations everywhere.
No matter that they were to flop against Mayo in the All-Ireland semi-final, Offaly gave a bubbly exhibition of well-constructed and pacy forward movement which earned them great plaudits in the process. Tommy Lyons's management feat in taking the team from Division Four of the League and the championship preliminary rounds was underlined nine months later when the county won its first NFL title.
There had been too little attention paid to Meath's advanced state of debilitation due to injury and suspension. When the counties met in the first round in May of last year, it was Offaly's predecessors who had the element of surprise. That combined with a full panel and some characteristically crafty tactical moves by Sean Boylan and his selectors ensured Meath were big winners.
This year the scales have been adjusted once again. Meath have the look of a team gradually losing ground. This process has been brought about by more personnel absences, this time because of injury. Brendan Reilly is out with a long-term back problem which may have ended his career.
Even if Reilly wasn't in great form last year he still managed to score 1-3 against Offaly, displaying at least the predatory instinct which made him such a dangerous full forward. Nigel Nestor, whose partnership with John McDermott provided the best centrefield display of last year when dominating Kildare's Niall Buckley and Willie McCreery in the Leinster final, is also out as is Jimmy McGuinness, who provided an important physical presence in the middle in last year's match with Offaly.
In addition, such key influences as Tommy Dowd and Trevor Giles are still regaining full sharpness after injuries. So there can be little doubt that Meath's overall capacity is diminished. By how much is the operative question.
Offaly for their part have enjoyed a far more considered lead-up to this year's championship. Although there were occasional signs that the management was losing its head in the face of some truly awful performances, it was obvious that their focus would be on the championship. Like Meath a year ago, Offaly were able to concentrate on the fact that the draw had paired them off with the team which had taken their title.
Offaly's display against Kildare had several things going for it. There was the obvious edge which had returned to their play. There was the improvement in key areas which saw the attack return to its old adventurous style and the much improved defence with Barry Malone particularly good at full back. Most surprisingly, centrefield was in great form. Even two years ago it was a sector which lived on its wits rather than dominated matches. Three weeks ago, it was at the heart of the effort which dethroned the champions.
In terms of personnel, Offaly have one great addition. Peter Brady, who missed the match against Meath last year, is back and played exceptionally for his three points against Kildare.
Meath didn't show much in their comfortable win over Wicklow. At times it was unimpressive stuff but in those sort of matches there's a tendency to forget that playing badly can be as unreliable an indicator as playing brilliantly.
The slight preference for Meath is based on a couple of factors. Their full-back line is tight-marking and shut down two thirds of tomorrow's opponents last year. If Offaly try to reproduce the packed, claustrophobic game which baffled Kildare, it will play into Meath's hands as they will quite happily compress the play between the 40s.
John McDermott's return brings one of the game's best centrefielders back into action and even if Sean Grennan also returns to supplement his brother Jim and Ciaran McManus, there will be a greater chance of a stalemate than was the case three weeks ago when Kildare appeared powerless to prevent the shutout.
In a tight, airless match, Meath have enough guile and focus to survive.
MEATH - C Sullivan; M O'Reilly, D Fay, C Murphy; P Reynolds, E McManus, H Traynor; N Crawford, J McDermott; D Curtis, T Giles, E Kelly; O Murphy, G Geraghty (capt), T Dowd.
OFFALY - P Kelly; C Daly, B Malone, D Foley; J Kenny, F Cullen (capt), T Coffey; C McManus, J Grennan; AN Other, J Stewart, B O'Brien; V Claffey, R Malone, P Brady.
