Today's special congress of the GAA at the Burlington Hotel, Dublin, to consider the deletion of Rule 21 remains as finely balanced as ever. It promises to be the most important meeting of the association in modern times, more important than the Belfast congress 27 years ago which removed the ban on `foreign games'.

That decision gave expression to a reality that would in time have destroyed the GAA, the fact that young people would play whatever sports they wished to, regardless of the ban. Had it persisted, dwindling numbers would have dedicated themselves to football and hurling. Instead there is now a thriving co-existence in which the games haven't suffered at all.

This afternoon's debate on Rule 21, which prohibits members of the Northern security forces from joining the GAA, will go to the heart of what sort of organisation the GAA has become. If the proposal to delete the rule isn't carried, there will be deep embarrassment throughout the association and fears that its broad nationalist image will have been swapped for something narrower and far more extreme.

To achieve abolition, the proposal for deletion must receive two thirds of the votes cast. This weighted majority complicates the business of prediction but both sides appear confident that they can win.

On paper, the anti-abolitionists have the upper hand. Ulster will send 67 delegates to Dublin, all resolved to oppose the motion.

Cork's 11 will support this stance as will numbers of the overseas delegates. How many of these will attend and how many will vote against remains to be seen (registration won't be until this morning). But as roughly 105 will probably be enough to sink the proposal, the opposition doesn't have far to go.

Ranged against this are virtually all the remaining counties. Doubts exist here and there but supporters of the proposal believe approximately 175 to be on their side. Their task of making up the extra 30 or so is on the face of it more challenging.

There will presumably have been a rush to the airports to greet the all-important overseas delegations on their arrival and much lobbying was expected last night and into this morning.

In short, prophesy is impossible except to say that the debate, which will be held in camera, promises to be rancorous and divisive. Already, the terms of the discussion have been personalised and GAA president Joe McDonagh's role has been bitterly criticised.

In fairness to McDonagh, he has done everything by the book.

Central Council unanimously endorsed his call for a special congress to be held, as under the terms of the 1995 Annual Congress decision which withdrew a motion to delete from the clar and substituted the idea of a special congress.

Supporters of the move aren't so naive that they didn't see the divisiveness coming. Had the original plan to raise standing orders and debate abolition there and then at last month's annual congress gone ahead, the motion might or might not have been passed but the whole process would have been concluded quickly.

In the six weeks since Annual Congress, most attention has focused on the referendums north and south and Rule 21 only came fully into focus after the overwhelming acceptance of the Belfast Agreement. Behind the scenes, however, opposition to abolition has festered with a variety of political and quasi-political groups getting involved.

Despite the obvious wishes of mainstream Irish life that Rule 21 be laid to rest, resistance to the idea has been vigorous. The main thread running through that resistance has been the unwillingness of delegates in the six counties to reconcile themselves to the idea of change.

Despite the formulaic repetition of the argument that the time isn't right, it has become clear that for the majority of Ulster delegates, the time will never be right. Consequently, the subtext of this debate will be about the extent to which one regional interest group can direct the whole association.

The tensions between the six counties and the northern security forces has governed the debate in Ulster, with Donegal, Monaghan and - with less conviction - Cavan following the lead of the others.

In turn, the views of Ulster have been held up as the ultimate arbiter by other units of the association with the result that the proposal is now on a knife-edge.

McDonagh won't be overly damaged by the fallout. After all, he will carry a substantial majority of the delegates, but general perceptions of the GAA itself will be severely damaged by upholding this provision in the face of the current climate.