Connacht v Cardiff: At first glance eighth against 10th in the Celtic League wouldn't appear to have much cache in a European context but, with regard to the line-up for next season's Heineken European Cup, there may not be a more decisive head-to-head all season. This is shaping up as a decider for a European Cup play-off.
Connacht are, of course, once again in the semi-finals of the European Challenge Cup, the winners of which qualify for the European Cup but, realistically, Michael Bradley's team - for all their ability to defy the odds so far - will be underdogs against Sale Sharks' Jason Robinson, Charlie Hodgson, Mark Cueto, Sebastien Chabal and co in April's two-legged semi-final.
Hence, a likelier, if less celebrated route, would be the 24th slot for next season's European Cup between a Celtic League qualifier - featuring either the fourth-finishing Irish province, the fourth Welsh composite side or the last-placed of the Scottish districts - away to the third-ranked Italian side in a one-off match.
Although Connacht went into the weekend one point behind Ulster, even if the western province finish above one of the other Irish provinces, the IRFU have intimated they will not be put forward as one of Ireland's three automatic qualifiers, without saying this is so many words.
As things stand, Connacht, in eighth place, lead Edinburgh and Cardiff by five points and the bottom-of-the-table Borders (who have a game in hand) by 13.
Thus, victory over Cardiff, could put them nine points above their Welsh rivals with six rounds of matches remaining and a step closer to that qualifier. In terms of financial clout, tradition and playing strength, by rights Cardiff should be strong favourites, as indicated by victories in their last three meetings with Connacht.
They've also shown an upturn in form over recent weeks, according to their coach Dai Young, even if he also admitted their performance in finally ending an eight-match losing sequence in last Sunday's dead Euro rubber against Ulster wasn't the pick of their last six efforts.
With the influential Martyn Williams and the pantomime villain Craig Quinnell still sidelined, Tom Shanklin continues as captain, but they have been boosted by the return from injury of Ryan Powell. Young has also recalled winger Dean Dewdney and hooker Rhys Thomas while Mama Molitika is named on the bench after signing from Harlequins on loan.
"It's a big game because they are just in front of us in the league," concedes Young. "We'd like to think we can take it right to the wire. We're certainly behind the eight-ball at the moment and we've put ourselves under pressure but I would like to think that the way we have played over the last six games is an indicator that we are on an upward curve."
Bradley admits that the Blues are a better side than their position indicates and, with no further distractions in Europe, will be able to focus all their energies on the league.
"They hammered us already this season and they seem to have the hoodoo over us," he said. "It would be a massive boost for them if they could get a result in this game, as it would be for us."
The loss of Eric Elwood through injury is not as damaging to Connacht's well-being as would have been the case in the past, as has been underlined this season, and again last week when he departed early from the win over Grenoble. After all, the effect has been to see last season's leading scorer Conor McPhilips to the wing, with Darren Yapp and the prolific Paul Warwick reverting to their normal positions.
Cardiff haven't won in 13 games on the road dating back to their victory over Leinster in Donnybrook last March. Hopeful of another vociferous and enthusiastic Sportsground crowd, Bradley cites the need to stop the likes of Kurt Schubert and Robert Sidoli from rumbling, keep Cardiff under pressure and take them to the wire.
"It is a massive game although if we win it is not over and done, and if we lose it's not over and done," stresses Bradley.
It'll be a hell of a big step though.
CONNACHT: M Mostyn; C McPhillips, D Yapp, J Downey, T Robinson; P Warwick, C Keane; R Hogan, B Jackman, S Knoop, C Short, A Farley, J Muldoon, J O'Sullivan, M Lacey. Replacements: D McFarland, J Fogarty, P Myburgh, M Swift, T Tierney, D Slemen, M McHugh.
CARDIFF: C Morgan; J Vaughton, T Shanklin, T Davies, D Dewdney; N Macleod, R Powell; J Yapp, R Thomas, G Jenkins, D Jones, R Sidoli, N Thomas, R Sowden-Taylor, K Schubert. Replacements: M Jones, G Williams, N Budgett, M Molitika, L Thomas, S James, J Bryant.
Referee: Malcolm Changleng (SRU).
Previous meetings: (2001-'02) Cardiff 3 Connacht 6; (2002-'03) Connacht 23 Cardiff 22; (2003-'04) Cardiff Blues 33 Connacht 17, Connacht 18 Cardiff Blues 21; (2004-'05) sCardiff Blues 31 Connacht 6.
Celtic League Formguide: Connacht - W W L L L; Cardiff - L L L L L.
Leading try scorers: Connacht - Matt Mostyn, Conor O'Loughlin 3 each. Cardiff - Gareth Williams, Craig Morgan, Dean Dewdney, Kort Schubert 2 each.
Leading points scorers: Connacht- Paul Warwick 92. Cardiff - Lee Thomas 72, Nick Macleod 51.
Forecast: Connacht to win.
