Pool Five/Llanelli Scarlets v Munster:Ever the drama kings and never ones to do things in a routine manner, Munster face up to a moment of truth in southwest Wales this evening, and only victory will, realistically, suffice if there are to be more moments of truth as their campaign progresses.
It was ever thus, for even in their triumphal campaign of 2005-2006, Munster had to recover from an opening defeat away to Sale by winning eight successive matches to finally fulfil their great ambition. Given Pool Five is the "pool of sharks" and their opening one-point defeat to Wasps, they are already at a sink-or-swim point.
The pity is Munster aren't hosting Llanelli first, for the Scarlets are too much a reflection of Declan Kidney's team to roll over and play dead. No team have qualified for the knock-out stages after losing their opening two games, but Llanelli fight for their lives. Factor in wounded pride resulting from two defeats and add a packed Stradey for a Heineken European Cup match and the visit of Munster, and well . . .
"We're trying to do something we haven't done in five years," said Kidney of their record away to the Scarlets in the Magners Celtic League, not to mention a return of one win from their last five visits to Wales, "so it's going to be a tough task for us and with the forecast the way it is (the forecast promises torrential rain and strengthening winds), it's going to be a night for smart rugby."
A ray of light for Munster came by way of Stephen Jones's enforced withdrawal yesterday with a neck injury. He will be replaced by the 20-year-old six-footer Rhys Priestland, who will be making his European Cup debut. Although he has played seven times for Scarlets this season and has a big boot and a nice passing game, this will be a big test for him and might inhibit Llanelli's freewheeling, offloading game.
Clermont's selection strategy means there is no real form line through them and while a line through Wasps might be seen as encouraging for Munster, the suspicion lurks that Wasps raised their game in Stradey Park, where nothing bounced kindly for the home side.
Well though Munster played away to Wasps, they've since been struck by the double whammy of Alan Quinlan's injury and that home defeat to Leinster, which highlighted the lack of leadership up front. To rectify that, Kidney has recalled Anthony Foley, the younger Donncha Ryan dropping to the bench, as well as the fit-again Brian Carney on the wing.
"We just decided that for a match like this Anthony's experience would be invaluable. It's a tough call on Donncha because I thought he did very well last week, but maybe with the balance of the back row and the substitutions there'll be fresh legs coming into it."
The feeling has grown that Munster have actually evolved into a dry-track team, but that is even truer of Llanelli; witness their 36-32 win over Saracens last week, when their scrum conceded two penalty tries.
In selecting Dafydd Jones and leaving Alix Popham on the bench, Phil Davies and Llanelli are clearly targeting the Munster lineout, where the options have been reduced by the selection of Foley ahead of Ryan. Even so, most of the ball is liable to go to the front - cue Donncha O'Callaghan.
The Munster maul hasn't rumbled as of yore, their scrum may not be capable of dominating and too many of their forwards still are not back to their best.
Yet history has taught us that Munster usually bounce back from defeat. An accurate lineout, an improved maul, O'Gara's superior kicking game, perhaps getting the likes of David Wallace and Denis Leamy rumbling up the middle, a huge defensive effort and Munster will duly rise to the occasion.
Munster will be out to avenge the wounding quarter-final defeat by Scarlets, despite two Celtic League wins at home since then. Most of all it's a question of needs must. And when Munster most need it, they generally get it.
LLANELLI SCARLETS: M Stoddart; M Jones, R King, G Evans, N Brew; R Priestland, D Peel; I Thomas, J Hayter, D Manu; A Eustace, S MacLeod; S Easterby (capt), G Thomas, D Jones. Replacements: D George, B Douglas, V Cooper, A Popham, G Cattle, C Thomas, J Davies.
MUNSTER: S Payne; B Carney, R Tipoki, L Mafi, I Dowling; R O'Gara (capt), P Stringer; M Horan, J Flannery, J Hayes; D O'Callaghan, M O'Driscoll; D Leamy, D Wallace, A Foley. Replacements: F Sheahan, T Buckley, D Ryan, J Coughlan, G Hurley, P Warwick, K Lewis.
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Previous meetings: (06-07, q/f) Llanelli 24 Munster 15. Betting (Paddy Power): 10/11 Llanelli, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Munster. Forecast: Munster to win.
