Clermont Auvergne v Munster:Munster are not quite in the same fettle as when they completed back-to-back wins over Llanelli in early December. For starters, even the best-laid plans of the Munster brains trust were shredded last weekend when their proposed first-team run-out against Ulster fell victim to winter snows, and they go into tomorrow's imposing game away to Clermont Auvergne undercooked.
While Doug Howlett will make his debut in the only change from the team that beat Llanelli two weeks running, he's bound to be rusty, and though Alan Quinlan has shown typical fortitude to earn a place on the bench (he has not played since November) it's disconcerting that Paul O'Connell misses out.
The Munster captain is still troubled by the back problem that forced him to miss the Wednesday afternoon session in Limerick.
"Paul suffered a setback during the week and is not able to train today so in the circumstances couldn't be included in the squad," said coach Declan Kidney yesterday.
O'Connell has been nursing the disc problem that sidelined him since the World Cup. It seemed an encouraging sign that, having been named on the Munster bench for the postponed Magners League game against Ulster, he played 35 minutes for Young Munster in the All-Ireland League. This setback is worrisome, however, not just in the short but also in the long term.
By contrast, save for the injured World Cup-winning captain John Smit, Clermont have selected their strongest hand in a clear statement of intent. It is, indeed, utterly unrecognisable from the second string that turned up in Thomond Park last November.
Only two players, Julien Malzieu and Seremaia Bai, start again, Malzieu reverting to the wing and Bai moving to inside centre.
His team having beaten Toulouse before Christmas, coach Vern Cotter restores several of his frontliners rested from last week's home win over Auch. There is arguably no more daunting venue for visiting sides in Europe than the Stade Marcel Michelin, where Clermont went through last season unbeaten, averaging 35 points and four tries per game in 13 domestic championship wins, along with four home wins en route to European Challenge Cup glory. This season they are unbeaten in six games at home, scoring 10 tries against Llanelli and Wasps.
Then again, if any team can step into a French furnace, keep their cool and defy the odds it is Munster. Most probably, to do that, they'll need to resort to basics, for if they engage Clermont in the kind of high-tempo game attempted by Llanelli and Wasps, they'll probably pay a similar price.
It would seem imperative Munster keep things tight early on and quieten the crowd. Solid set-pieces, a driving maul, plenty of close-in rumbles from Denis Leamy, David Wallace and co, and an aggressive defence to stop Clermont reaching their wings would seem more suitable than the offloading game that surprised Wasps on opening weekend.
Easier said than done, of course. Clermont have a potent pack of their own, with plenty of rumblers in the likes of Mario Ledesma, Alexandre Audebert and Elvis Vermeulen, while few scrumhalves probe the blindside and support like Pierre Mignoni, and Brock James has the boot of a mule.
They also play with incredible depth and width, which will make it hard for Munster to get at them, and if they don't do it through the hands they are liable to put it through the air; two of their three tries against Auch coming from perfectly weighted crosskicks.
Other causes for concern are Llanelli's selection against Wasps, raising the prospect of a five-pointer for the holders, and the presence in Stade Marcel Michelin of an English referee with only one European Cup game, Treviso v Dragons, to his name this season.
While an improbable win would not be beyond Munster if the pack and Ronan O'Gara were at their vintage best, and would leave them well placed to earn a home quarter-final, realistically this is their toughest brace of back-to-back matches in this shark-infested pool. In the circumstances, a bonus-point defeat would be a result, and would leave them requiring a win over Wasps next week to top the pool, but coughing up a bonus-point win to Clermont could seriously imperil their prospects.
CLERMONT AUVERGNE: A Floch; A Rougerie (capt), M Joubert, S Bai, J Malzieu; B James, P Mignoni; L Emmanuelli, M Ledesma, M Scelzo; A Jacquet, T Privat; J Bonnaire, A Audebert, E Vermeulen. Replacements: M Lozupone, D Zirakashvili, C Samson, S Broomhall, J Senio, B Baby, V Delasau.
MUNSTER: S Payne; B Carney, R Tipoki, L Mafi, D Howlett; R O'Gara, P Stringer (capt); M Horan, J Flannery, J Hayes; D O'Callaghan, M O'Driscoll; D Leamy, D Wallace, A Foley. Replacements: F Sheahan, T Buckley, D Ryan, A Quinlan, T O'Leary, P Warwick, K Lewis.
Referee: R Debney (England).
Previous meetings: (07-08) Munster 36 Clermont 13.
Results so far: Clermont - 48-21 v Llanelli (h); 13-36 v Munster (a); 37-27 v Wasps (h); 24-25 v Wasps (a). Munster - 23-24 v Wasps (a); 36-13 v Clermont (h); 29-16 v Llanelli (a); 22-13 v Llanelli (h).
Leading try scorers: Clermont - Rougerie 3. Munster - Payne, Tipoki, Carney, Horan 2 each.
Leading scorers: Clermont - James 16. Munster - O'Gara 24.
Betting (Paddy Power): 1/5 Clermont Auvergne, 22/1 Draw, 3/1 Munster. Handicap odds (= Munster +9pts) 10/11 Clermont, 22/1 draw, 10/11 Munster.
Forecast: Munster to win.
