Hollywood couldn't have written a better script as former Ireland coach Warren Gatland brings his resurgent Wales side into town.
TEN YEARS ago last Sunday, February 24th, Warren Gatland was appointed as Ireland's youngest ever coach, and a decade and a day on from his first game in charge, the 18-16 defeat to France on March 7th, 1998, he takes his Welsh team to Croke Park for a renewal of acquaintances with his old team. And Wales lead the table from Ireland. You couldn't have scripted it.
Events may yet prove this not to be the shoot-out it seems at this juncture, and it's been pointed out that Wales haven't done an awful lot, yet if one goes along with the view that England imploded in allowing Wales to turn around the first game in Twickenham, since when they have merely beaten Scotland and Italy at home.
But then again a similar picture could be painted around Ireland, if one puts the unfulfilled comeback in Paris at least partially down to Marc Lievremont experimenting by unloading a callow bench; either side of which Ireland, too, have beaten Italy and Scotland at home. To put Ireland's win last Saturday in further perspective, Scotland's only away wins since beating Wales in Cardiff in 2002 remain one narrow victory in Rome - plus a friendly in Bucharest.
Still, this is one of the variables that goes with the Six Nations. It's not a home-and-away league, and if the fixtures have to a degree fallen favourably for Wales and Ireland, they've made sufficiently good use of them to ensure each goes into this pivotal game with a fair degree of momentum. One ventures that neither Gatland nor Eddie O'Sullivan will waste one waking minute - and quite a few of their sleeping ones too - thinking about little else between now and next Saturday week. (A pity about the 1.15pm kick-off. It just doesn't look right. Damned television).
There are undoubtedly shades of the momentum Wales generated in 2005, to the point there was only ever really one winner when they clinched the Grand Slam against Ireland, and in the way they are making use of a golden generation of strike runners of their own. Two key differences between now and then are that Gatland, Shaun Edwards and co have imbued this Welsh squad with greater physicality in the collisions and seemingly superior fitness levels, along with much healthier competition in the squad - hence, helped by clever use of the bench, that remarkable Welsh second-half tally in three games of 74-12 (compared to 29-30 on first-half scores). Ireland's, by the by, reads 30-28 over three first periods, and 41-22 thereafter.
Gatland has restored confidence in Gavin Henson and, in a further link with 2005, encouraging Martyn Williams out of retirement was a masterstroke. Then, as now, there remain question marks about their tight five, but it is conceivable that Gatland will change up to four of his tight five, and one or both of his halves.
No less than Ireland's 21-point winning margin, the scale of Wales' 47-8 win was a tad flattering, given Italy butchered a seven-pointer, twice hit the woodwork in the first half-hour and yet again hardly enjoyed the better of the referee's calls but it's funny how good sides often have their superiority handsomely rewarded late on.
The major plus of Saturday's events in Croke Park was the sheer opportunism of the Irish team. Eddie O'Sullivan may contend that Ireland could be obliged to defend for large tracts of the game against Wales, and to a degree he's right when he maintains that it's what you do without, or with, the ball that counts. England won in Paris with 43 per cent of the ball and 47 per cent of the territory, while Ireland won with 45 per cent of the ball and 45 per cent of the territory. It's been a recurring theme of this championship.
Yet going through the dozen phases and near two minutes that led to Simon Webster's try it is again striking how much yardage the Scots made when running hard and straight at an Irish defence almost devoid of line speed, especially when pummelling the blind side.
The difference is that England played more in French faces and, helped by the home team's worthy-if-questionable game management in running ball from the off inside their own 22, made their defence into more of an offensive weapon. The scores that Ireland turned into tries weren't so much down to offensive Irish defence as unforced Scottish, though the Irish backs showed their sharpness in turning turnover ball into scores.
Making full use of Rob Kearney's left boot, after its costly neglect in Paris, was also encouraging to see. All in all, there seemed a better balance to Ireland's back three. However, having needlessly declared Girvan Dempsey's ownership rights on the number 15 jersey on Friday, O'Sullivan's relatively impassioned defence of the "unfairly maligned" Leinster fullback at Saturday's press conference demonstrated his preference for Dempsey's more reliable if more prosaic virtues.
In point of fact, appreciation for Dempsey's professionalism and truly astonishing consistency is widespread, not to mention his under-rated pace and attacking game, and the more unfairly maligned figure is Murphy - almost entirely by the coach, who clearly struggles to come to terms with the Leicester man's intelligence, and independent free spirit as much as his occasional missed tackles.
The argument for recalling Rory Best to help improve Ireland's lineout is likely to be irresistible and the same goes for Paul O'Connell. Even if there's only 40 minutes in O'Connell, it would be preferable if his physicality and dynamism were used in the first 40, for that is when the lines in the sand are drawn.
That would increase the case for having additional lock cover in Alan Quinlan on the bench. There might even be a horses-for-courses argument for having Keith Gleeson amongst the replacements if Williams is wreaking havoc, but imagine the ballast off the bench that Bernard Jackman, Tony Buckley, Quinlan and Shane Horgan could provide? The two coaches have plenty to think about alright, but the one blight on O'Sullivan's landscape, aside from the looming presence of Gatland's Wales, was the alarming and damaging 67-7 drubbing handed out to his Irish A selection on Friday night when his policy of ignoring the likes of Quinlan, Keith Gleeson, Bob Casey, Leo Cullen, Mike Ross and others resulted in the worst hiding any Irish A selection has ever suffered, even if it also highlighted how threadbare the cupboard is.
