All the talk about the presence, and its implications, of three Ulster counties in tomorrow's Church & General National Football League semi-finals ignores a couple of things. Firstly, it's not actually that unusual and secondly, prominence at that this level has never been an accurate reflection of what happens later in the year.

Only three seasons ago, Tyrone, Derry and Donegal were in the semi-finals and whereas Tyrone always believed that their narrow defeat by Derry taught them enough to catch their neighbours the following June, none of the sides won the All-Ireland.

Furthermore, when Ulster was dominating the All-Ireland series in the early part of this decade, there was no visible evidence of it in the previous spring's League. None of the four years from 1991 to '94 featured a particularly heavy representation from Ulster in the League semi-finals - only once, in 1992, did two northern counties manage to reach this stage.

Finally, and most significantly, none of the Ulster counties which went on to win the All-Ireland even contested the previous League semi-finals.

There are question marks over the championship credentials of all tomorrow's contestants with the exception - ironically - of the one non-Ulster county, Offaly. Donegal and Monaghan are at an early stage of development with new players and management and Derry have been this way too many times before for us to read much significance into the fact.

The first semi-final, between Donegal and Offaly, offers a good insight into Donegal's progress under Declan Bonner. They punished a dreadful Cork display last week but will be more squeezed tomorrow. Offaly contest everything around the middle and will not allow Donegal the space they had in abundance in the quarter-final.

There might be more encouragement for them in the slackness of Offaly's marking in their quarterfinal which gave Galway a stack of - largely untaken - chances. Offaly manager Tommy Lyons excused his defence on the grounds that marking elusive forwards in the wet always creates problems, both of hesitancy and timing.

Donegal's full-forward line will present a stringent challenge to their markers, with Cathal Daly's performance on two-goal Brendan Devenney an important issue, but perhaps not as important as Barry Malone's dealings with Tony Boyle. Should Boyle get the sort of latitude afforded Padraig Joyce, we can all forget it by half-time.

This is one area where the match will be decided. The other is around the middle. Both teams thrived at midfield the last day and it will be up to Jim Grennan to repeat the dominant role he played for most of the Galway match - rather than the slow start which allowed Kevin Walsh such a productive opening quarter - in order to stifle the exuberance of Jim McGuinness and James Ruane.

Beside Grennan, Ciaran McManus worked quietly and industriously and was an effective foil.

Up front, we can assume Offaly will find the scores if other sectors are going their way. While not quite the scoring machine of popular repute, the Leinster champions are a cohesive and economical unit when going forward, as evident in the ultimate comfort of the scoreboard after a match in which they won less than half the going possession.

Offaly also have the advantage of being at just the right stage of evolution for a League win. As has been mentioned, young teams rarely base a championship breakthrough on winning the League in the same year (Kerry's success 12 months ago can be more properly ascribed to their watershed Munster title in 1996) whereas well-experienced teams generally establish a rhythm which ignores the later stages of the spring competition.

With momentum behind them from last summer and a hugely demanding championship opener next month against Meath, Offaly have the right combination of experience and innocence to take this further.

In the second semi-final, there is the complication of Derry and Monaghan's championship appointment, also next month. Whereas Monaghan are aware of the pitfalls of recording a misleading victory, the pitfalls of morale-draining defeat is more obvious.

Like many a team which overcomes what looks like a crippling deficit, Eamonn McEneaney's side did most of the work when containing a Down team that was on the verge of swamping them before taking chances that arose at a later stage.

The team's hard graft and sense of teamwork has improved and ultimately was enough to crack a brittle Down team which although seven points clear at one stage was never, according to one mentor, convinced about their prospects.

Derry last week showed signs of their old ailment of hitting their best form in April. There may come a time when this form endures until the summer but we'll have to wait and see. Of the innovations with long-term potential, Gary Coleman's move to centre forward looks the best bet.

The team has lacked someone to lead the attack and play to the strengths of the full forwards. Last year against Tyrone, for the (roughly) 20 minutes that the match was a contest, Derry had the jitters going forward and it was Coleman, coming up from corner back, who scored crucial points before the whole business turned into a carnival. Significantly or not, it was Coleman who got the winning goal last week.

Monaghan won't be under as much pressure as last week and may well perform better but that doesn't guarantee anything against an upbeat Derry side.