Colin Montgomerie or Lee Westwood could take the Harry Vardon Trophy with various different finishes, when the European season ends with the Volvo Masters at Montecastillo, Spain, starting on Thursday. But as the accompanying table illustrates, Darren Clarke must capture his second title of the year to have any chance of emulating fellow Ulsterman Ronan Rafferty by becoming leader of the Order of Merit.
Clarke was on corporate duty at Portmarnock Hotel and Links yesterday, acutely aware of what he needs to do. And he wasn't thinking about booming drives or precise iron shots. "I'm thinking about getting my head together and sinking a few putts," he said.
Bitterly disappointed by his first round defeat by Ian Woosnam in the World Matchplay Championship two weeks ago, Clarke has since been licking his wounds. "My game is good, I shot 66 in a pro-am at Sunningdale last week, but I've got to start holing putts again," he said.
"I know exactly what has to happen at Montecastillo for me to lead the Order of Merit. But I've no control over what Lee and Monty do. So, my target has to be to concentrate on winning the tournament and hope that the other pieces fall into place."
Montgomerie, who has already set a record of five successive Order of Merit triumphs, is taking the challenge quietly. He knows the quality of his rivals, particularly Westwood, who looks to be the logical successor to Nick Faldo as Britain's leading practitioner.
At 25, Westwood is defending the Volvo Masters title which he won by three strokes from Padraig Harrington last year, when adverse weather caused it to be reduced to 54 holes. "I'm an ordinary guy who is just trying to keep in touch with reality," said the recent winner of the Belgacom Open.
He went on: "You won't hear me whingeing about pressure or moaning about the hype. I realise how fortunate I am. I could quite easily have been down a Nottingham coalmine. It makes you think."
Westwood sent British hearts fluttering by defeating Ernie Els in the quarter-finals of the recent World Matchplay Championship at Wentworth, before losing to Tiger Woods in the semi-finals. But he saw the Woods defeat as no more than a minor setback. "I can be the best golfer in the world because I have everything it takes to be number one," he said matter-of-factly. "I have beaten everyone in the game at some stage of my career."
For fear one might get the wrong impression, Westwood went on to emphasise his admiration for Montgomerie, who has been the dominant figure in European golf over the last five years. "I don't think people outside the game realise how good Monty is," he said.
Westwood went on: "He's a winner. To be number one for that length of time, with the tour becoming increasingly competitive, is quite something. Having said that, he will feel the pressure this week. I expect to win. The expectations of others don't bother me.
"This is why I play golf. I love to be where is hurts, where the adrenalin starts pumping. You don't know when the surge of adrenalin will hit you, but I seem to be able to control it when it does. I'm comfortable being in contention." It is interesting that Clarke must win the title - Rafferty was in the same position nine years ago. On that occasion, the Warrenpoint player had won the Italian Open and Scandinavian Open earlier in the season, whereas on this occasion Clarke can look back on a victory in the Benson and Hedges International last May.
Though Westwood and Clarke have claimed they would be happy to forgo appearance money if everybody else did likewise, it is certain that leadership of the Order of Merit would enhance their status enormously. As clients of Andrew Chandler's International Sports Management, they are good friends but not so close that they would have a problem beating each other.
"At our level, tournament golf is about winning," said Clarke, who has acquired a new Ping driver which is giving him an additional 15 yards off the tee. "You can't afford to be thinking about the other man, even if he happens to be a friend. We saw that in the way Mark O'Meara and Tiger Woods went at each other in the final of the World Matchplay."
The tightness of the current situation is reminiscent of three years ago. On that occasion, victory at Valderrama went to the German, Alex Cejka, but of far greater significance was that Montgomerie sank a tricky, par putt on the last green to claim second place. It meant he had edged fellow Scot Sam Torrance out of number one position which he claimed for a third successive year.
The tournament, which has since been switched to Montecastillo, carries £1 million in prize money with a top prize of £166,000 and £110,000 for the runner-up. For Ireland's other two challengers, Paul McGinley and Harrington, there is also the not inconsiderable matter of £700,000 from the bonus pool which is distributed among the top-15 finishers.
The field comprises the last five winners of the Volvo Masters, players in positions one to 55 in the current Order of Merit, two invitees including China's Cheng Jun, and others such as Faldo, Tony Johnstone, Seve Ballesteros and Tony Johnstone. Philip Walton is second reserve.
Of the 19 Order of Merit tournaments Clarke has played in this season, he has had no fewer than eight top-10 finishes. These include one victory, and runner-up place in three events, the Deutsche Bank Open, the Dutch Open and the Scandinavian Masters. He was also third in the European Masters and fourth in the Smurfit European Open.
Montgomerie has won on three occasions - the Volvo PGA Championship, the British Masters and the German Masters.