Six NationsIreland have long since laid the Scottish bogey. They've won the countries' last four clashes, including two treks to the graveyard otherwise known as Murrayfield; yet somehow the ghosts of past failures seem to loom more into view as this latest meeting approaches.
Uppermost amongst the factors at work here is the absence of Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon D'Arcy, which was confirmed yesterday along with a new Kevin Maggs-Shane Horgan midfield pairing, Girvan Dempsey on the wing and Gavin Duffy on the bench. D'Arcy tore the Scottish defence to shreds in the Triple Crown coronation at Lansdowne Road last season, but it's O'Driscoll who has been a persistent thistle in Scottish kilts. Eddie O'Sullivan's assertion yesterday that both should be fit for the English game carries little comfort right now.
The well-being of the elusive midfield pair has been something of a sideshow this week, and a source of amusement to the Scottish management. But, judging by the constant inquiries, there's more anxiety amongst the vast throngs of Irish supporters milling around Edinburgh than there would have been a week ago.
The weather is liable to be less hospitable than the locals; the forecast is for dry, colder but windy conditions (although at least the Murrayfield stadium offers more shelter than most). This will place an added premium on the accuracy of the tactical kicking, particularly that of Dan Parks and Ronan O'Gara, which is likely to be a major factor in the game.
Coach Matt Williams warned of the need for Scottish discipline should Ireland adopt what he called good old-fashioned Munster rugby, and O'Sullivan admitted Ireland will tailor their normally expansive game in the absence of O'Driscoll and D'Arcy.
"You've got to dance with the ladies at the ball," as he put it.
Buoyed by their improved showing in Paris and harbouring a sense of grievance over the result, and with O'Driscoll and D'Arcy missing, Scotland will also go into this game with far more confidence than they might have done a week ago.
Fitter and better organised than a year ago, though nothing like world-beaters, if it becomes a scrap, Scotland have the players and strengths to trouble Ireland if they are any way off colour.
Their defence pushed up more aggressively on France than they had been doing, and their defensive lineout intensified the pressure on France. Though Ireland have the best lineout in the world, with Scotland's insider knowledge no opponents would be better equipped to attack the Shane Byrne throw than Scott Murray and co.
Apart from the livewire, unpredictable scrumhalf Chris Cusiter, they've a host of straight running types in the midfield pair of Hugo Southwell and Andy Craig, and the back row rumblers Alastair Hogg and the hard-tackling Jason White.
Only twice did they go beyond third phase last week, with Parks content to sit in the pocket and play to his kicking strengths.
Save for the Hogg "try" that wasn't, there was scarcely even a hint of a try last week, but presumably there will be more of the percentage game today, with Scotland then looking to unveil some moves in the opposition 22.
Then again, it's conceivable they might not have to breach the Irish whitewash too often to win. If French referee Joel Jutge applies the IRB diktat about ball-carriers re-adjusting their body positions in the tackle, then the trend of the opening weekend - with markedly less continuity, multi-phase attacks and hence tries - could even be exacerbated. And of the six tries scored in the three games, O'Driscoll was the creator-in-chief of two of them.
In potentially another tight, relatively low-scoring encounter, the accuracy of goalkickers O'Gara and Chris Paterson will become even more important, so there's liable to be even more pressure on O'Gara this week in the absence of O'Driscoll especially.
That said, the Irish pack have to deliver a better performance than a week ago. Again, with Willie Anderson's ability as a continuity coach augmenting a traditional Scottish forte, the breakdown could be another troublesome area for Ireland.
Scottish backs and forwards hit ruck targets strikingly lower and harder in Paris last week than Ireland did in Rome. Denis Leamy has been jettisoned and the buck passes to Johnny O'Connor, but aside from Malcolm O'Kelly (and one can expect another big game on another big day for him) the rest of the pack all have to step up their performance levels. A repeat of last week and Ireland are liable to be rucked off the park.
Yet even allowing for Scotland being unchanged and Ireland's redesigned midfield, the Irish are a far more settled, experienced side, and that greater cohesion ought to come into play then. Maggs and Horgan, with over 100 caps between them, aren't exactly novices. Horgan, it is true, has particularly unhappy memories of the defeat here four years ago, as does Geordan Murphy from the win here two years ago when a broken leg cost him a World Cup.
But Horgan is a different player now, and if he can do even half the damage he did to the Springboks in November, and free his hands in the tackle to make offloads, then the support trailers and pace of Murphy, and the finishing of Denis Hickie, would give Ireland a sharper edge than the Scots have.
First off, though, it will be about the pack stepping up to the plate more than they did a week ago.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD: Played 117, Scotland 61 wins, Ireland 50 wins, 5 draws, 1 abandoned.
LAST FIVE MEETINGS: (2001) Scotland 32 Ireland 10. (2002) Ireland 43 Scotland 22. (2003) Scotland 6 Ireland 36, Scotland 10 Ireland 29 (WC warm-up). (2004) Ireland 37 Scotland 16.
BIGGEST WINS: Scotland 38-10 in 1997. Ireland 36-6 in 2003.
BETTING (Paddy Power): 2/1 Scotland, 25/1 Draw, 4/11 Ireland. Handicap odds (=Scotland +7pts) 10/11 Scotland, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.
FORECAST: Ireland to win.
