Pragmatic Irish must take risks to deny Aussies

Ignore the traditional platitudes, the verbal crumbs that tumble from the table of the world champions

Ignore the traditional platitudes, the verbal crumbs that tumble from the table of the world champions. Australia will not countenance, for one moment, the notion that they will lose to Ireland at the Subiaco Oval in Perth tomorrow.

Privately, their belief is that anything less than a 30-35 margin of victory would constitute a disappointing evening for the hosts. Lansdowne Road last November has not been forgotten nor forgiven and they would like to exact retribution in spades.

A fast track, to use the Aussie vernacular, and the sun on their backs is the backdrop they covet; ideal conditions in which to overrun the Irish challenge. They may be granted that wish, although the weather in Perth this week is more endemically Irish; rain and wind.

Australia's coach, Eddie Jones, was quick to dispel any notion that this game matters little in the context of a World Cup year in which the teams' next meeting is of greater consequence, or that the injuries that have shorn both sides of front line players devalue this game.

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"It's very rare that teams play at full strength," he said. "It could be a case of, when we clash further down the track in the World Cup, both sides could have similar numbers of players out. I think we have to stop talking about injuries in terms of test match rugby. It's rare that you play with everyone available."

The Australians have just six survivors from the team that started at Lansdowne Road, but the composition of tomorrow's side is less vulnerable than that number suggests. Six of the pack are first choice with only Owen Finegan and Justin Harrison missing. David Lyons and Nathan Sharpe won't weaken the team.

It is the missing inside backline trio of Steve Larkham, Matt Burke and Daniel Herbert whose absences may be more keenly felt. Elton Flatley takes over the number 10 jersey, while Steve Kefu (one cap) and Morgan Tirinui (debut) constitute an untested midfield combination.

This is the one area of uncertainty, and possible frailty, within the Australian team. All three are excellent players but it is how they combine that will determine the effectiveness of the Australian patterns. If they flourish then there isn't a better back three in world rugby for exploiting ball-in-hand opportunities than Chris Latham, Wendell Sailor and Joe Roff.

Ireland, too, are down a couple of first choice players up front but one crucial absentee is John Hayes. His importance to the team, particularly in the last 18 months can not be overstated. Reggie Corrigan switches across to tighthead. A novice in that berth at international level, it hardly provides the ideal scenario for a player so fundamental to Ireland's chances. To harbour even a scintilla of hope, the Irish set pieces must be flawless.

Geordan Murphy's ability to adapt to his new role of outside centre is less of a worry and Jones has identified Murphy as a threat.

"They mightn't have (Brian) O'Driscoll but Geordan Murphy - I think he was described as the George Best of Irish rugby - well he's got running skills. I don't know if he's George Best."

Jones described Ireland as "a very good side, playing pragmatic test rugby". The question is, will pragmatism suffice?

David Humphreys, in controlling the game, can't afford any loose kicking to the Australian back three, but Ireland lack robust ball carriers, with the exception of Victor Costello, to pick and drive, consistently break the gain line and guarantee continuity of possession. Ireland need to be less predictable.

Jones offered the following blueprint: "The best attacking systems have a little bit of unpredictability. How do you get unpredictability? By a high level of skill. You get that unpredictability from your back three popping up where they have less able defenders in front of them."

James Topping aside, the visitors don't have that sheer pace to burn the visitors on the outside, so expect to see them try and maul the ball up front and utilise Kevin Maggs's direct style of running to try to establish forward momentum. O'Sullivan has intimated that Ireland are "going to have a cut" and hopefully that is exactly what they will do.

Ireland don't just require parity up front, they need a pronounced edge. They need players to perform at optimum levels, make good decisions under pressure, and take every opportunity. The visitors don't score enough tries away from Lansdowne Road and a minimum requirement for Humphreys tomorrow will be a 15-18 points kicking performance.

The Australians start as strong favourites, rightly so, but O'Sullivan's emphasis has been on getting the performance right and being quick out of the blocks.

A good start may be half the battle. For Ireland, tomorrow, it is a prerequisite.

AUSTRALIA: C Latham (Queensland); W Sailor (Queensland), M Tuirini (NSW), S Kefu (Queensland), J Roff (ACT); E Flatley (Queensland), G Gregan (ACT, capt); B Young (ACT), J Paul (ACT), P Noriega (NSW); D Giffin (ACT); N Sharpe (Queensland); D Lyons (NSW), T Kefu (Queensland), G Smith (ACT).

Replacements: B Cannon (NSW), B Darwin (ACT), D Vickerman (ACT), P Waugh (NSW), C Whitaker (NSW), N Grey (NSW), L Tuquiri (NSW).

IRELAND: G Dempsey (Leinster); J Topping (Ulster), G Murphy (Leicester), K Maggs (Bath), J Kelly (Munster); D Humphreys (Ulster, capt), P Stringer (Munster); M Horan (Munster), S Byrne (Leinster), R Corrigan (Leinster); G Longwell (Ulster), M O'Kelly (Leinster); A Quinlan (Munster), V Costello (Leinster), K Gleeson (Leinster).

Replacements: P Shields (Ulster), E Byrne (Leinster), P O'Connell (Munster), E Miller (Leinster), G Easterby (Llanelli), R O'Gara (Munster), T Howe (Ulster).

Referee: N Williams (Wales).

Touch judges: M Lawrence (South Africa), G Wise (New Zealand).

TMO: S Walsh (New Zealand).

AUSTRALIA'S RECORD IN PERTH

July 18th, 1998: South Africa 14 Australia 13, Subiaco Oval (38,079)

June 19th, 1999: Australia 32 Ireland 26, Subiaco Oval (26,267)

August 18th, 2001: Australia 14 South Africa 14, Subiaco Oval (42,658)

June 15th, 2002: Australia 27 New Zealand Maori 23, Subiaco Oval (33,053)

Odds (Courtesy of Paddy Powers): 1/8 Australia, 25/1 draw, 9/2 Ireland. Handicap (Ireland +16 pts): 10/11 Australia, 16/1 draw, 10/11 Ireland.

AUSTRALIA v IRELAND

HEAD TO HEAD

Year Winner Score Venue

1927 Australia 5-3 Dublin

1947 Australia 16-3 Dublin

1958 Ireland 9-6 Dublin

1967 Ireland 15-8 Dublin

1967 Ireland 11-5 Sydney

1968 Ireland 10-3 Dublin

1976 Australia 20-10 Dublin

1979 Ireland 27-12 Brisbane

1979 Ireland 9-3 Sydney

1981 Australia 16-12 Dublin

1984 Australia 16-9 Dublin

1987 Australia 33-15 Sydney

1991 Australia 19-18 Dublin

1992 Australia 42-17 Dublin

1994 Australia 33-13 Brisbane

1994 Australia 32-18 Sydney

1996 Australia 22-12 Dublin

1999 Australia 46-10 Brisbane

1999 Australia 32-26 Perth

1999 Australia 23-3 Dublin

2002 Ireland 18-9 Dublin

Played 21. Australia 14 Ireland 7

John O'Sullivan

John O'Sullivan

John O'Sullivan is an Irish Times sports writer