RUGBY/Leinster v Toulouse:It starts with pride. Leinster's interest in the knockout stages of the Heineken European Cup may hang by a mathematical tendril but it won't excuse a substandard effort this afternoon. Mentally they can focus on self-respect and an opportunity to partially salvage a reputation once again tarnished in Edinburgh.
While only the most blinkered fan would suggest they can make the quarter-finals, the Leinster team and management won't dwell on the abstract but will focus on what they can directly influence: beating Toulouse.
They won't lack incentive - their last home defeat was in October 2005 against Bath at the RDS - especially given the manner of their loss in Toulouse last November. Losing is one thing; the second-half mish-mash of basic mistakes, poor execution and flawed decision-making is another.
In recent seasons Leinster have produced rugby bearing a 24-carat hallmark but as yet haven't managed to sustain that through a campaign. This season's displays in the pool illustrate the point, the convincing defeat of Leicester Tigers at home offset by off-colour efforts in Toulouse and Edinburgh.
Coach Michael Cheika has had some selection decisions foisted on him by injuries to his international wing Shane Horgan and loosehead prop Ollie le Roux and will have lingered on the composition of the three-quarter line, the frontrow and the backrow.
Rob Kearney's recovery from injury sees him return on the left wing, Luke Fitzgerald switching to accommodate the rejig. Gary Brown potentially drops to the bench, though that is not finalised until this morning.
Stan Wright has been hampered by a groin strain and Cheika must decide whether to opt for two props on the bench in a five/two split in terms of forwards and backs. Cian Healy definitely makes the bench but prop Ronan McCormack and wing-cum-centre Brown are vying for the one spot.
In terms of the team, Healy drops down after a fine performance against the Ospreys, Wright switches from tighthead to loosehead, and the fit-again former Connacht prop Stephen Knoop goes into the frontrow.
Cheika will also have agonised over the backrow conundrum, finally electing to start Keith Gleeson and Shane Jennings either side of Jamie Heaslip. It's a triumvirate that thrived against the Tigers, but since recovering from injury Stephen Keogh has excelled, notably last weekend.
The coach has plumped for experience in the back line, restoring Gordon D'Arcy to the centre, with Felipe Contepomi shifting infield to take over at outhalf from Jonathan Sexton. It's hard on the young St Mary's man, who has acquitted himself capably, but understandable, with tyros on the wing, Cheika would want an experienced midfield.
Toulouse will be without their France centre Yannick Jauzion and Argentinian lock Patricio Albacete. But the three-time European Cup winners are still an imposing team, from the power of tighthead prop Jean Baptiste Poux in the scrum to the athleticism of Yannick Nyanga, Thierry Dusautoir and Shawn Sowerby in the backrow.
They have arguably the best attacking back three in European rugby: Clement Poitrenaud, Vincent Clerc and Cedric Heymans will punish any ball kicked indiscriminately.
The Toulouse head coach, Guy Noves, who has been castigating Leinster's scrum technique while at the same time talking up the hosts, elects to start the combative All Black Byron Kelleher at scrumhalf in tandem with Valentin Courrent. The latter has proved a vital cog on Toulouse's better days of late, having swapped number nine for 10 to spectacular effect.
Toulouse know winning in Dublin will permit them to stroll into the quarter-finals, guaranteeing a home draw if they account for Edinburgh in France next weekend.
Leinster will be motivated by the desire to prove their critics wrong and, more important, prove they can best the best.
Brian O'Driscoll makes his 50th appearance in the tournament and will be determined to make it a celebration in every respect. Against the Ospreys he looked sharper, no longer encumbered by injury.
Toulouse know this match is not make-or-break for them, and while it would be naïve to suggest they won't care, it'll be instructive to watch their body language if Leinster start quickly. It's not about the home side throwing the ball about with abandon; it's about winning their set-piece ball and taking the game to their opponents, around the fringes, out wide and through the middle. It's about varying the game, making fewer errors and taking every opportunity presented.
To do this Leinster need another muscular performance from their pack. And they need Contepomi to play that intuitive, heads-up rugby that is so hard to contain. Toulouse are the bookmakers' favourites but the standings in the pool notwithstanding, it is Leinster that have more to play for, and that should be enough to see them prevail.
LEINSTER: G Dempsey; L Fitzgerald, B O'Driscoll (capt), G D'Arcy, R Kearney; F Contepomi, C Keane; S Wright, B Jackman, S Knoop; L Cullen, M O'Kelly; S Jennings, K Gleeson, J Heaslip. Replacements: B Blaney, C Healy, C Jowitt, S Keogh, G Easterby, J Sexton, G Brown or R McCormack.
TOULOUSE: C Poitrenaud; V Clerc, M Kunavore, F Fritz, C Heymans; V Courrent, B Kelleher; D Human, W Servat, J Poux; F Pelous (capt), G Lamboley; Y Nyanga, T Dusautoir, S Sowerby. Replacements: V Lacombe, S Perugini, R Millo-Chlusky, J Bouilhou, J Elissalde, Y Donguy, G du Toit.
Referee: W Barnes (England)
Results so far (HC 2007-2008): Leinster - bt Leicester (h) 22-9; lost to Toulouse (a) 33-6; bt Edinburgh (h) 28-14; lost to Edinburgh (a) 29-10. Toulouse - bt Edinburgh (a) 19-15; bt Leinster (h) 33-6; lost to Leicester (a) 14-9; bt Leicester (h) 22-11.
Leading points scorers (HC 2007-2008): Leinster - Felipe Contepomi 46. Toulouse - Valentin Courrent 27.
Leading try scorers (HC 2007-2008): Leinster - Shane Horgan, Keith Gleeson, Jamie Heaslip, Felipe Contepomi, penalty try 1 each. Toulouse - Clement Poitrenaud 2.
Odds (Paddy Power): Handicap (Leinster + 1, Toulouse -1) - 10/11 Leinster, 10/11 Toulouse, 20/1 draw. Leinster evens, Toulouse 4/5, draw 18/1.
Verdict: Leinster to win.
