Football Championship Overview: This sort of weekend always brings to mind a theory privately advanced by an observant sports psychologist. He painted a vivid picture of a small boy being reared in one of what we politely term the weaker counties. Championship time would arrive and in the intense excitement of it all arrangements would be made to travel to the venue.

With hopes high the boy would pack into the car with his father and uncles. En route, the adults would serially disparage their own players, who would then duly lose.

On the way home there would be further recrimination with added bitterness. The point, according to the psychologist, was that by the time the boy emerged from a childhood replete with such trips to play with the county how could he have the reserves of self-belief that, say, his Kerry counterpart enjoyed.

As the Bank of Ireland football championships get under way we know that for half the counties involved the provincial challenge - such as it ever was - will be dead in the water tomorrow evening. Many trips, exactly as described above, will occur around the country.

Even the advent of the qualifier system has made little difference. For most of this weekend's losers the qualifiers only prolong the dull pain of inadequacy.

Elsewhere on this page the various counties' prospects are assessed. The most common description of a county's chances is "depends on the qualifier draw". In other words, if the draw pairs you with the likes of London the "campaign" will be slightly extended.

But otherwise forget it.

The knock-out format has been no more satisfactory in the qualifiers than it had been for over a century of championship activity. It's not just that it can become a futile life support but, more damagingly, it can stunt counties with a bit of ambition.

Last year Wexford ran Dublin to two points in the Leinster championship and were rewarded with a second chance against National League holders Tyrone. A week later they lost that, also by two points so their challenge ran aground while other less enthusiastic teams stayed afloat.

None of this is intended to dispute the improvement brought about by the new system. Some dilution of the sudden-death format is better than none. In the past two years the qualifiers have assisted in providing landmark results and creditable seasons for counties like Westmeath and Limerick - neither of whom won a provincial championship in the 20th century - who in the past would have had no chance.

It's not just that such teams get a second chance or even that they have the security of knowing it. After all, none of the above have made a breakthrough in their own province. But the liberation of breaking out of the provincial routine and facing novel opposition has proved stimulating and has led to memorable matches.

One concern that popped up last year centred on falling attendances at the qualifier rounds. It was a substantial fall-off, 37 per cent down on 2001. Again you're back to the luck of the draw. Two years ago there were some very attractive fixtures whereas the abiding memory of last year is of one-sided farces, such as Kerry-Fermanagh and Meath-Laois - yoked together on one awful afternoon in Portlaoise before 13,463 stunned patrons.

It may be the case that the novelty has worn off a bit but even if that were true - and the coming weeks will give a firmer indication - the purpose of the qualifiers isn't to make money. It's to give teams another match and ultimately produce eight quality quarter-finalists, which it has largely achieved in the past two years.

A more systemic problem is the lack of an adequate rewards structure. It's all very well for pictures to go up in pubs and warm memories of famous victories to percolate through counties but realisable interim targets aren't on offer.

For that purpose the provincial championships aren't really adequate. Every now and then there's a Clare or Leitrim who create a sonic boom but it seems to take more than two generations for such barriers to be breached. Something more attainable on an annual basis would be a good idea.

The problem is counties dislike the concept of grading and resent any interference with what's seen as an untrammelled right to enter the senior championship. But the National League Division Two final has given glimpses of the impact a graded competition can have, as did the All-Ireland B during the 1990s despite its uninspiring name.

Maybe there is a point to be made about entry to the senior championship. The doomed Football Development Committee recommendations of three years ago included plans for a hierarchy of counties, with not all entitled to compete at senior level.

It had the merit of making participation in the championship a prize in itself and would have ensured that competing counties established minimum credentials rather than just wandering in for a trimming or two every year.

A lower level would also have the benefit of sorting out the teams that were serious about getting in shape for senior competition and those who run the perennial risk of embarrassing the championship.

If the progress of Sligo, Westmeath and Limerick means anything it demonstrates that effort brings results and is an example to other counties that improvements can be made.

But there are limitations to the march of democracy.

The qualifiers may have given certain counties more space to get the best out of themselves but it hasn't really affected life at the top.

In the excitement generated by Sligo's matches against Tyrone and Armagh and similar results it shouldn't be forgotten that the All-Ireland has been controlled by a small elite for a number of years.

Armagh's tremendous breakthrough last year was colourful and first-time winners are good news but the victory was the culmination of the best spell in their history - three provincial titles in four years. No county since Down in the early 1960s has dominated Ulster to that extent.

You have to go back six years to the see the last genuine uprisings. Offaly and Cavan won provincial championships from nothing in 1997 and, sadly, were unable to maintain the progress. Since then a cartel has taken a grip and the qualifiers have if anything assisted in the process.

With the exception of Dublin last year, the All-Ireland semi-finalists over the past three seasons have all had experience at that level in 1998 and '99.

And the potential winners have been an even more select grouping.

Kerry and Galway are favourites for this year's title. Between them they have won four of the past six titles and been runners-up once. Meath, the county that have matched them title for title, are apparently in decline, still depending on the same players and not uncovering fresh talent at anything like the rate of Kerry and Galway.

No one really disputes the entitlement of the favourites to that status. The question is: are there realistically any other contenders? Armagh, on the basis that they are defending champions, are obviously plausible candidates. But it's 1990 since anyone retained the title and that challenge has become more arduous.

Although we have to approach the evidence of the league with caution there is reason to believe Tyrone are a coming force, if only because after years of depending on Peter Canavan the attack now supports him.

The provinces provide further evidence of a narrowing field. Going into this season the bookies' odds have Kerry and Galway unbackable in Munster and Connacht.

In Ulster, it's extraordinarily hard to see any county other than Armagh or Tyrone winning. Only in Leinster is there a sense of competition but that is not at the highest level. Who'd want a substantial wager on the All-Ireland going east in September? Neither Dublin nor Meath look to have the depth of quality necessary and Laois have some convincing to do before they can be considered Leinster candidates, let alone All-Ireland contenders.

There will be surprises and exhilaration along the way but the major shock would be if the Sam Maguire isn't in Galway, Kerry or maybe Tyrone by October.

Operating within these restricted parameters tipping isn't necessarily a lot easier but for what it's worth, Galway's the preference here.