It rarely does to be definitive in racing. The only sure thing in this game is that so-called mortal locks keep bookies in business.
So, only a mug will stick their heads so far above the parapet to claim that City Of Troy definitely will or definitely won’t win Saturday night’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. But the scales of betting are surely tilted towards a negative outcome.
Since anybody with an exchange account can be a bookie, the entire betting world is faced with a straightforward ‘Lay’ or ‘Bet’ choice about the most eagerly anticipated race of the year when City Of Troy tries to finally secure Aidan O’Brien that elusive first success in America’s richest prize.
O’Brien and his Coolmore employers have run 17 horses in the $7 million Classic. Their first, Giants Causeway, runner-up 24 years ago, is still the closest they’ve got to the breeding shed nirvana of a colt able to beat the best on both grass and dirt. Even Galileo couldn’t transfer turf brilliance to an alien surface. Now, the legendary sire’s grandson has a shot at the Holy Grail.
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By the time jockey Ryan Moore jumps on board City Of Troy, he will have 8.10 on his back. But the Derby-winning colt has long since been saddled with unprecedented weight of expectation. Acclaimed by O’Brien as the best he’s ever had, his date of destiny in the Classic has seemed fated all year.
Crucial to that has been that his sire is Justify. Coolmore’s great chestnut hope to replace Galileo was a US Triple Crown winner on dirt and his progeny have shown ability to win on every surface. But City Of Troy is out of a Group One-winning Galileo mare, and the legendary Sir Henry Cecil wasn’t alone by believing that 75% of breeding is from the dam.
If anything has underpinned City Of Troy’s campaign this year it is O’Brien’s conviction that all roads would ultimately lead to this singular challenge on dirt.
He has consistently argued that the colt’s run style means he can translate the brilliance that saw him win the Derby, the Eclipse and the Juddmonte International to a new surface first time of asking.
It is that which is at the heart of City Of Troy’s cramped 7/4 odds. They are tighter even than at Epsom in June when O’Brien transformed the colt from Guineas flop to ‘Blue Riband’ champion.
Perhaps it’s on the back of that, when the trainer’s faith in the horse was vindicated so spectacularly, that otherwise sceptical punters are reluctant to be caught out twice.
There are more tangible plus factors than staunch faith in the Irishman’s wizardry for the favourite to pull off a rare Classic success. Just a single European-trained horse has ever won it on dirt when Arcangues sprang a shock for Andre Fabre in 1993 at the other end of the SP spectrum, 133/1.
City Of Troy’s run style is more dirt grind than traditional push-button grass acceleration. Apart from a Guineas flop, blamed on getting upset in the stalls, Ryan Moore’s major task has often been pulling him up after running through the line. His gate speed is also good, a vital factor in the US whatever the surface.
There’s little doubt about his taste for a scrap and there’s no doubt either about this not being a vintage Classic field.
But if his front-running Juddmonte success sealed the deal for O’Brien in terms of targeting Del Mar, it also saw the colt’s tendency to hang to the right come to the fore again. That Moore coped with it, on top of decisively grabbing the race by the scruff of the neck from the start, underlined what looked a vintage effort by the jockey.
But despite playing 6,000 miles away from home, on an alien surface, at the end of a busy season, and against top-class opposition who’ve made their reputations by racing on dirt, perhaps the greatest obstacle City Of Troy has to overcome isn’t external but the incredibly valuable bloodlines he carries.
Galileo didn’t spark on dirt when he raced and rarely produced anything in the breeding shed that was top-drawer on the surface.
It has been fascinating then to hear the first reaction of top US trainers to this Irish interloper that has dominated the build-up and is favourite to beat them at their own game.
Bob Baffert and Bill Mott have both remarked that they see more Galileo than Justify in him. Admittedly the latter was something of a freak in looking like a sprinter but capable of carrying speed up to a mile and a half.
This year’s Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Kenny McPeek knows a thing or two as well about dirt too and summed up the situation perfectly.
“I think it’s a tough challenge to take a horse who has accomplished what he has done on turf and shift him to the dirt and it will really tell us if he is a Justify or is he a Galileo – which one is he?” he asked.
In the home of mom and apple pie, the shrewd bet at the odds might be that City Of Troy is a mama’s boy on dirt.
Something for the Weekend
Of the big three in the Classic market, Japan’s Forever Young looks to have the most solid claims. Too often, the top US hope Fierceness has proved more flaky than fierce. But in a race where pace seems assured, it could open up for a closer so local hope NEWGATE (9.41) and a certain Frankie Dettori could be value at massive odds.
In the preceding Turf, Japanese veteran SHAHRYAR (9.01) hasn’t won in a long time but was a slightly unlucky third in this a year ago and will be finishing better than most.
