It is often the Derby which revolves around a short-priced favourite and the Oaks which offers punters a chance to dig deeper into the half-chances and possibilities in a lightly raced field. But not this year, when the normal order is reversed and Minding, the 1,000 Guineas winner and odds-on favourite, is the only place to start when backers weigh up the first Epsom Classic.
Many will stop there, too. On all known form, Minding is the best filly in the field by a significant margin: 9lb clear of Turret Rocks, according to official ratings, and no less than 13lb in front of her field on Timeform’s figures.
She will be ridden by Ryan Moore, is a daughter of Galileo and Aidan O’Brien, her trainer, has won the race five times before. It is, on the face of it, a strong case. Had the bank holiday weather continued all week, it could well have been overwhelming.
Solid arguments
The rain at Epsom over the last couple of days has shifted the balance, however, and there are now solid arguments against Minding at a price that has, so far, remained impervious to the changing conditions.
The official going at Epsom is currently soft, good-to-soft in places, and while there is little or no rain forecast ahead of today’s race, Minding dipped well below her best form when she was narrowly beaten on soft ground in the Irish 1,000 Guineas at The Curragh last month.
Minding had excuses other than the easy ground, as she was a last-minute deputy for stable companion Ballydoyle and struck her head leaving the stalls, injuring a sinus in the process.
Stern resistance
Minding’s defeat at The Curragh has also strengthened the opposition, with Skiffle, an impressive winner at Goodwood last time, added to the field at the supplementary stage.
Turret Rocks is used to mixing it with the best, having raced only in Group company since a winning debut in a maiden last June. She was 1¼ lengths behind Ballydoyle in the Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc day, and stayed on to finish sixth in the 1,000 Guineas, about 6½ lengths behind Minding.
That is a significant deficit to overcome, but Jim Bolger said at Epsom's Breakfast With The Stars he had left her "a bit short" before the Newmarket Classic; her juvenile form also suggests that she will be a middle-distance filly this season.
Punters looking for a real upset, meanwhile, may be tempted by the 25-1 about Diamonds Pour Moi, third home in the Cheshire Oaks. Guardian Service
