THE BOOKIE's is as good a starting point as any. You can back Clare for tomorrow's Guinness Munster hurling semi final at 9 to 4 on. On local radio, you can hear The prices for the All Ireland from Liam Cashman's and Cork aren't even quoted in the top eight.

How did it come to this? The county that tops the All Ireland roll of honour has been creating records of a less positive nature in recent years. Just over 12 months ago, 10 of tomorrow's team were on the side that ingloriously surrendered a seven decade unbeaten "home record in senior championship hurling.

Losing to Limerick by 16 points in Pairc Ui Chaoimh: even the direst commentaries sounded euphemistic. It had been a slow train coming for a while. Cork's under age record was fairly unimpressive: one minor and one under 21 All Ireland in 10 years.

Ironically, when the axe was falling at senior level, there were signs that underage was picking up and two years ago a further minor title was added.

That was where Jimmy Barry Murphy came in. Appointed manager at the end of 1995, together with his chosen selectors Tom Cashman and Tony O'Sullivan (since replaced as his club are no longer county champions), Barry Murphy ventured into a world that had changed considerably from when he won five All Ireland medals.

Clare were the new All Ireland champions and Limerick their closest rivals. The days when Cork needed no more complex strategies than to pull on a red jersey in order to frighten these counties were gone. Last year Limerick put the notion savagely to rest.

Tomorrow's fixture graphically illustrates the changed world in Munster. It is the third biennial meeting of the counties. In 1993, Clare were given no chance against a Cork side that had just won the League, but Clare won. Two years later, opinions were divided hut tending towards Clare who again won, albeit with an injury time goal.

Now the wheel has turned to the stage that, only four years after they were comfortable favourites for the All Ireland, Cork will play as almost no hopers against Clare in the Gaelic Grounds.

Cork have completed the first season of the calendar year league and earned promotion from Division Two. Even this achievement, which could be categorised as encouraging, included a couple of poor performances and failure in the match against Dublin, the division's other main contenders.

Clare on the other hand have been relegated, but after playing a variety of tough matches of near championship intensity. They are physically powerful, fit and used to performing at a higher level than their lighter, less experienced opponents.

Jimmy Barry Murphy doesn't dispute the advantage of League status. "It would be unrealistic to say no. Division One is played at a different pace and with a ferocity that's more like championship hurling. The tempo is different and it gives you a great chance to see how players react."

Gerald McCarthy, another multiple medallist from Cork's past, who coached Cork to their 1990 All Ireland and who managed Waterford out of Division Two, agrees in the light of his team's championship defeat by first division Limerick.

"Talking to the rest of the lads, they said they only had a moment of time on the ball. If you didn't perform the skill quickly, you didn't perform it at all."

THE PAST is turned on its head as the catalogue of ifs and huts and maybes that were previously deployed to qualify the chances of an outsider playing the likes of Cork are now the keystones in any attempt to construct a case against Clare.

"The big question is physique," says McCarthy. "Cork are lacking that. Can they stand up to the onslaught and the ferocity. Cork have the forwards if they get fast, flowing ball, but Clare are aware of that. I can see the weather playing a big part."

Ah, the weather. Were they all made of sherbert, Cork could have no deeper forebodings about rain. It had become one of the county's more preposterous shortcomings that they couldn't win on a wet day. Four of their last five championship defeats have come in bad weather.

Nonetheless, this year it is actually a genuine worry. The team is young, slight and not built for slugging it out in adverse conditions. Their playing strength needs hard ground and the ball moving about like a bullet.

"I don't think about it," says Jimmy Barry Murphy. "What do you want me to say? That we've no chance if it's wet? I can do nothing about it, but obviously we'd prefer it fine. Clare would, too. No team likes playing in bad conditions."

John Considine was right corner back on the last Cork team to win an All Ireland. He is also a selector of the UCC teams which have won the last two Fitzgibbon Cups and which provide three of the Cork starting 15 tomorrow. He is ambivalent about the weather.

"Even if it turns bad, players aren't going to be ankle deep in mud. My biggest fear is that the grass won't get cut in Limerick and that would slow down the ball a lot."

Cork's physical capabilities are easy enough to assess, but the mental resolve to optimise their potential and resist crippling inhibitions will be as much on trial. Goalkeeper Ger Cunningham has played on an All Ireland winning team, but of his teammates, only Brian Corcoran and Ger Manley have even played in an All Ireland final.

In addition to the very young players, there are a number of middle generation players whose championship careers have comprised of largely distressing experiences: Timmy Kelleher, Barry Egan and Kevin Murray carry a weight of expectation that they will provide leadership.

"We deliberately embarked on a youth policy, but that doesn't mean we just said `let's play a load of young lads'," says Barry Murphy. A lot depends on Sunday. One win can change the whole atmosphere within a team and a county. If we could win one game.

"I've made six changes since last year. You couldn't really make any more. We scoured the county and tried innumerable players but stepping up to intercounty is difficult and Clare are a strong, mature team, very seasoned."

JOHN CONSIDINE makes the point that in the absence of noticeable underage success, UCC has provided a bridging structure for many players, not all of them from Cork. With the Fitzgibbon Cup now a much expanded competition, there's a host of younger intercounty players participating and the standard of competition has risen.

Three of tomorrow's team - Joe Deane, who made his championship debut last year, Seanie McGrath and Alan Cummins have been on one of the two in a row Fitzgibbon winning teams (Deane played on both). Full forward Alan Browne is an alumnus of slightly older vintage.

Deane and McGrath are selected as corner forwards. They are Cork's chances in a microcosm. Neither is expected to win the match on his own, but it's impossible to see Cork win if they don't rise to the occasion. They will be affected if the weather is bad and the confines of the Gaelic Grounds will suit neither.

The pair of them are unpredictable and have yet to establish the consistency of top intercounty players, but they are made for the benign interpretation of Cork's prospects. Quick, with outstanding hall skills, they are both potentially big score getters.

"Seanie McGrath is a great asset," says Considine. "He has a certain arrogance. Against UL, he missed two good goal chances, but it took nothing out of him and he got a beauty before the end. He has a tremendous turn of pace and given open space can really do damage.

"At the Glen (his club, Glen Rovers), he would have been helped by John Fitzgibbon, who was also a player who might do nothing for 55 minutes before winning a match. When he did something, it always excited people. Seanie's like that."

Deane is more experienced at county level, but like McGrath is slight and struggles when conditions aren't good. His input to the Fitzgibbon victories was curiously subdued. Considine believes the pitches were too small for the player whose speed and accurate finish pose an unsettling threat to any defender.

Despite the high hopes excited by the corner forwards, Alan Cummins will actually carry a heavier burden of responsibility. His selection is at centre field, but many expect him to move in on the 40 to test Sean McMahon before the afternoon is out.

Either position will involve Cummins maximising the advantage from Ger Cunningham's puck outs. Given the power of Clare's halfbacks and centrefield, this will demand great ingenuity.

"Alan's form is as good as I've seen it in the last four years," says Considine. "He is nearly Blackrock's top scorer. The actual speed of his striking is noticeable. Unlike his father (Kilkenny's All Ireland winner Frank) who was powerful and you didn't get in his way, he's got quick wrists and his lift and strike action is very good."

THE COUNTY waits and doesn't expect much. Aside from the money on Clare flooding into Liam Cashman's, there is resignation that the sort of transformation necessary won't happen overnight.

Such impasses have been reached before. In 1966, as an under 21, Gerald McCarthy led a team of youngsters to the All Ireland. Seven years ago, Cork went into the Munster final against Tipperary, then All Ireland champions, and were given no chance.

John Considine remembers the day. "When we went to Thurles, a lot of us didn't think about winning or losing. It was a new experience to be playing Tipp in a Munster final in Thurles. We were going out to play our socks off. I remember 15 minutes from the end realising, `this game is going to be won or lost' and it lifted us. For the first time we were conscious of winning a Munster final."