The elation of Chicago 2016 contrasted sharply from an Irish perspective with the sequel 11 days ago. It’s worth pointing out that the two groups of Ireland players involved in those matches are worlds apart. Nine years ago, the squad was approaching its peak, while today’s group is firmly in transition mode.
Some of the current established figures still have plenty to offer, but it’s less clear who is pushing hardest to replace them. The Japan match last Saturday confirmed as much – a functional, occasionally flat performance from a team still searching for rhythm.
Andy Farrell summed it up neatly afterwards. Asked if he got the response he wanted following the defeat to New Zealand, he said: “No, I got the response at half-time.” That line told you everything about where Ireland are. This is a side struggling to shift through the gears, not yet cohesive but doing enough to stay on track.
That has been one of Farrell’s great strengths – keeping Ireland steady even when they’re short of their best. The way the season has unfolded has played a major role. Most players are only three or four games into their campaigns. In years gone by, those early outings would have come at provincial level, time to shake off the rust before international duty.
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Now, with the global calendar creeping deeper into summer and Lions tours drifting into August, the rhythm is different. Players need rest, but it’s hard to fake sharpness. The Japan game made that painfully clear.
The scoreboard looked tidy at the final whistle, but the performance never quite clicked. A few players did stand out. Jack Crowley looked composed and inventive, Tommy O’Brien brought real energy and Ryan Baird’s athleticism lifted the tempo.
Ireland’s unconvincing Japan job
Japan were everything you’d expect: technically superb, organised and brave enough to play. Their passing and handling – crisp, accurate and efficient – kept them in the contest for an hour. That in itself highlighted a contrast. Ireland’s basic handling and decision-making were inconsistent. Without a few moments of individual quality, the margin might have been tighter.
Ultimately, Japan ran out of gas. Their bench lacked Ireland’s punch and the final 20 minutes played out as most expected, with the home side pulling clear and applying a late gloss. No one inside the Irish camp will be under any illusions. That was not a statement performance.
In many ways, the November series starts now. The next two games, against Australia and South Africa, will define the window and tell us far more about where this group truly stands.
There’s always a temptation in weeks like this to overreact, to sift through the ashes of recent performances looking for signs of decline. But that’s not Farrell’s way. He’ll see this as an opportunity, not a warning.
Pressure is growing, individually and collectively. He will know that addressing it head-on, embracing pressure the right way, is the best teacher in sport. When the environment gets uncomfortable, that’s when character reveals itself and Farrell has proved adept at leaning into it.
Expect intensity at training, some tough conversations and maybe a selection or two designed to jolt the group. It’s how he operates; create internal competition, demand standards and see who responds. To date, when he’s done that, Ireland have answered.
In the recent past, that response has been driven by the likes of Tadhg Beirne, Dan Sheehan and Caelan Doris, players who have consistently led when the temperature rises. Others need to step into the space to shoulder some of that responsibility. The leadership in this group is evolving and the next fortnight will show who’s ready to take it on.
Australia’s defeat to Italy raises questions about the Wallabies. Under Joe Schmidt, there was an expectation that they’d be far more cohesive and disciplined, but consistency has been hard to nail down.
Anyone who has played under Joe knows exactly what that looks like: precision, relentlessness and attention to detail that can be both inspiring and exhausting. When it works, it’s devastating. When belief wanes, it becomes heavy.
With two games left in his tenure, it’s fair to ask whether the Wallabies still have the energy for it. History doesn’t always treat coaches kindly at the end of their cycles. Players sense change and subconsciously, they can drift. Perhaps the Italian result was evidence of that.
So, the team that shows up in Dublin could be one of two extremes – a side desperate to deliver a parting statement for their coach or one running on fumes. Ireland must be ready for both possibilities.
Australia have form here. Back in 2013, they arrived in Dublin under a cloud. Several players had been fined for drinking midweek before facing Ireland. The response that weekend was explosive. We had one eye on New Zealand the following week, Joe was blooding new players, mixing combinations. Australia, meanwhile, played with a desire and will we couldn’t match.
This week, Australia bring unpredictability and that makes them dangerous. Ireland’s focus has to remain internal. Less on selection debates, more on attitude and execution. Set-piece efficiency, ruck speed and the simple catch-pass accuracy that underpins everything. Accepting that Ireland’s attacking shape won’t change dramatically, it’s about executing it better.
Externally, the world rankings are less of a focal point for Ireland, with the team safe in the knowledge of a top seeding for the World Cup. Results elsewhere – Italy and Argentina especially – mean Australia have slipped to seventh, outside the top six seeding in the expanded World Cup format.
That will be Joe’s headline message this week: beat Ireland and climb back into the elite bracket. Nobody is better at tapping into that emotional energy. He’ll use it.
For Ireland, the challenge is firmly within. They haven’t become a poor team overnight. At this level, the margins are incredibly fine. The expectation to beat Australia will have grown on the back of their loss to Italy. South Africa, on November 22nd, looms large for very different reasons, namely their outstanding performance and win in Paris. But both narratives are misleading. This week is about Ireland resetting their own standards.
And that’s what makes this such a valuable opportunity. It’s rare to have a moment in-season to rebuild belief, but that’s exactly what Ireland can do here. They can recharge confidence and reconnect performance to identity.
There’s a lovely symmetry about Farrell and Schmidt standing in opposite coaching boxes this week. Two men who have shaped modern Irish rugby now testing their philosophies against each other. Under Schmidt, Ireland learned the value of precision, of clarity in roles and execution.
Under Farrell, they’ve learned to live with pressure, to embrace it, absorb it and express themselves through it. The challenge now is for Ireland to combine both – the detail of Schmidt with the resilience of Farrell. If Ireland can find that balance, they’ll discover something even more valuable than form; they’ll rediscover belief.
The November series finally begins now. The next two weeks will tell us a great deal.
