The result of tonight's vote on Rule 21 in Derry will provide the first indicator of the inclination towards change among the GAA community in the six counties.

The timing of Saturday's announcement by Sean McCague left Derry club members with little time to explore their feelings to the long-standing ban on members of the RUC or the British army from joining the GAA. The next meeting of the Derry County Board was scheduled for this evening, leaving the county with no alternative but to use the date to collect verdicts ahead of the special congress on November 17th.

"I would not care to even offer a guess on how it might go, given that we have had little time to canvas the clubs," said Derry PRO Gerry Donnelly yesterday evening.

"But the feeling is that the motion will be passed this time irrespective of the voting in Ulster. When Rule 21 was last tabled for amendment, the Ulster counties were essentially regarded as the barometer. Those sentiments may not carry as much weight this time round."

While Rule 21 is commonly regarded as archaic in the Republic, it remains extremely contentious in the North. Terry Gibbons, Antrim's hurling PRO and a member of the O'Donovan Rossa club on the Falls Road, believes the announcement was based on political expediency.

"We aren't really surprised, but a lot of club members here believe it to be too soon. People are talking as if this new community police force is already a reality. Now, maybe it will become so, but a lot of people would be sceptical of that right now.

"Maybe it would have been more prudent to wait until next Easter, but there would be a feeling here that this move is Fianna Fβil driven and that the GAA is essentially beholden to the Irish Government since the announcement of the grants."

When St Galls, an Andersonstown club, voted to remove Rule 21 three years ago, a number of their members suffered verbal abuse subsequently.

"It was wrong that those members experienced that and one would hope that it won't occur this time round," said Gibbons.

"Generally, there would be a perception that GAA members will vote two to one in favour of retention of Rule 21 but that it will be passed at Congress."

The GAA areas of the North less affected by the Troubles will be more drawn towards voting for change, but certain sections of the community will remain intransigent.

"Never say never, but there are certain places where it is impossible to foresee a vote to change Rule 21," remarked Gerry Donnelly. "But given the recent announcement on decommissioning, it probably is a very opportune time to canvas the delegates again."

Should the motion be steamrolled through regardless of the sentiments of the majority in counties such as Antrim and Derry, it will do nothing to bridge the perceived chasm between the peripheral branches of Ulster and the GAA's central authority. "Definitely members will feel isolated," said Gibbons. "But that's nothing new."