RACING/ 2009 Investec Epsom Derby: NO ONE'S going to get rich betting odds of 1 to 12 about today's Investec Epsom Derby winner being trained in Ireland. But even in a year of unprecedented Irish dominance of racing's premier classic, betting that Sea The Stars will prove himself an outstanding champion can pay off with a vengeance.
In fact the one true certainty about this Derby is that Sea The Stars will have to be an exceptional horse to win it.
A total of 34 horses have completed the 2,000 Guineas-Derby double but the last of them was Nashwan 20 years ago and it’s another 19 years back to Nijinksy.
In the meantime even superstars like El Gran Senor and Dancing Brave have come up agonisingly short. Only other legendary names such as Sir Ivor (1968) and Crepello (1957) have managed to bring off classic racing’s most coveted double in the modern era.
So the intriguing Derby undertone is that among the eight Irish- trained horses in the dozen starters for this afternoon’s classic there may just be a colt that can crash his way into the most elite of company.
Sea The Stars really did look that good at Newmarket a month ago. John Oxx’s colt may be a half brother to the 2001 Derby hero Galileo but the speed he showed in the Guineas made him a totally convincing winner. In fact the only negative to come from it was a suspicion that any horse possessed of such speed must almost by definition be deficient of stamina. The famously cautious Oxx for one describes Sea The Stars chances of staying the mile and a half as no more than 50-50.
But an adage as old as the Derby itself maintains that if you know your horse will stay coming into Epsom then he’s probably too slow. And one thing Oxx remains convinced of is his horse’s quality.
“He certainly has the look of a champion. He’s already a Guineas winner and whether he can win the Derby as well is a tough call. It’s a hard thing to do but it’s worth pursuing. He will be a great champion if he can do it,” the Curragh trainer said earlier this week.
The positives are plentiful though. Oxx has run just two horses in the Derby before, winning with Sinndar in 2000 and finishing an unlucky third with Alamshar in 2003. He doesn’t travel for the sake of it. Michael Kinane has won the great race twice before and even on the verge of his 50th birthday the legendary rider can’t hide his enthusiasm for this latest addition to an illustrious career.
As always dangers are plentiful and remarkably almost exclusively Irish. Fourteen winners have been trained in Ireland up to now but it will be a seismic shock if Derby number 230 doesn’t become 15.
Much of the build-up has been dominated by Johnny Murtagh’s dilemma in picking from Aidan O’Brien’s six runners. His eventual decision to plump for Rip Van Winkle appears to be based on home reputation rather than racecourse achievement as he was only fourth in the Guineas. Murtagh’s main discard seems to be the unbeaten Fame And Glory who was visually impressive in the Derrinstown on his last start. However, the runner-up that day, Mourayan, is a stable companion of Sea The Stars and Oxx is convinced he ran below form. Fame And Glory’s tail-swishing when hit with Seamus Heffernan’s whip was hardly encouraging either.
Reports from Ballydoyle this week suggest Masterofthehorse has been impressing in recent workouts but ultimately it could be Gan Amhras, representing last year’s winning team of Jim Bolger and Kevin Manning, who ends up trumping the Ballydoyle battalion.
In most years Gan Amhras, third at Newmarket but bred to appreciate further, might without doubt be a potential Derby winner.
But after a perfect preparation, and on what looks like being ideal ground, a very real doubt is that Gan Amhras and co will run into an exceptional opponent on the verge of proving himself an Epsom great.
Brian O’Connor’s tips
1. Sea The Stars.
2. Gan Amhras.
3. Masterofthehorse.
